237
FXUS61 KBGM 030736
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
336 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, bringing a chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms may
become severe tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. High
pressure moves in behind the front, bringing wonderful weather
for the 4th of July and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 AM Forecast...

An area of showers and thunderstorms is moving through western
NY and is expected to move into the western Finger Lakes
starting around 8z. These showers and storms should move to the
ENE through the Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley as the night
progresses, exiting to the east before mid-morning. Temps
tonight will fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the lowest
values east of I-81 as clear skies will be present here the
longest.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
develop late this morning through the afternoon hours. A surface
cold front will drop into the area this morning from Canada
while a shortwave trough moves over the region during the
afternoon hours. The rain this morning combined with a mid
morning frontal passage should limit instability and thus
thunderstorm development through the Finger Lakes and into
Oneida county. South of this area, instability looks to improve
greatly as partly sunny skies and dry conditions this morning
will allow for CAPE values between 1000-2000 j/kg to develop
ahead of the approaching cold front. 0-6km bulk shear will also
increase in the afternoon as a ribbon of 40-55kt shear values
rounding the bottom of an upper level trough move overhead. This
setup focuses thunderstorm development east of the Finger Lakes
and Central Southern Tier into the Catskills and south into
NEPA. As the cold front moves through the region, severe storm
development will be possible with scattered storms producing
damaging winds. With the high shear values and slowly improving
mid-level lapse rates, large hail could also form. The forecast
lines up well with the forecast from SPC, with a Slight Risk for
severe weather across areas east of I-81 in NY and much of
NEPA. The cold front is expected to be through the region by mid
evening, with high pressure and clear skies building in behind
it.

The 4th of July will be an absolutely wonderful weather day with
high pressure in control. NW flow into the area from Canada will
provide a warm, dry airmass with clear skies for most of the
day. Temperatures will be in the mid 70 to low 80s.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
305 AM Update

Mainly dry weather, with a warming trend expected for the short term
period. Hot and humid conditions are expected by Sunday.

A surface high pressure system will be centered over the area Friday
night, bringing clear skies, light winds, valley fog and cool
overnight lows in the low to mid-50s. High pressure remains in place
on Saturday, with sunny skies, low to moderate humidity and above
average high temperatures well into the 80s for most locations. No
changes for Saturday night, with high pressure still in place but it
will be more humid and muggy, with lows in the 60s. Upper level
ridge moves over the area on Sunday with a southwesterly return flow
in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere. This will bring hot and
humid conditions as 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 579dm and 850mb
temperatures jump up to +19C. Latest guidance has afternoon highs on
Sunday reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide. These
temperatures will combine with dew points in the mid to upper 60s to
bring heat indices into the low/mid 90s in the valleys. A few
locations could get close to heat advisory criteria, and is
something that will need to be watched in the coming days.

There is a chance for a few showers or isolated t`storms Sunday
night as the upper level trough over the central great lakes
gradually drifts east...but overall likely staying precipitation
free, but humid and muggy with lows in the mid to upper 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 AM Update

A rather active summer weather patter is shaping up for much of the
long term period. A weak frontal system passed through the area on
Monday, bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the area. Deep layer, 0-6km shear values are progged to be between
20-30 kts, which is modest, but could still allow for some organized
convection to develop in a potentially moderately unstable atmosphere,
as MLCAPE reaches 800-1500 J/kg.

The heat still remains on Monday, as 850mb temperatures surge to
about +20C along and ahead of the front. This will support highs in
the mid-80s to lower 90s...with the highest readings over the
southern tier and NE PA. Dew points will be quite high in the mid-
60s to lower 70s in the afternoon. This will bring the heat index to
the upper 80s to mid-90s...and perhaps even 95 to 100 in the Wyoming
Valley region.

The slow moving front looks to potentially stall or washout near the
Twin Tiers for Tuesday. This will keep a slight chance to chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast on Tuesday. Dew
points don`t fall very much at all, but temperatures should be about
5 degrees lower as light northwest winds take hold. Perhaps a few
lingering showers into Tuesday night near and east-southeast of
Binghamton otherwise partly cloudy and seasonably mild. Another weak
front moving in from the Great Lakes region will keep a chance for
showers and isolated t`storms in the forecast Wednesday, along with
warm and humid typical mid summer conditions. There is increasing
timing and position differences in the 00z deterministic model
guidance by the middle to end of next week. With this in mind,
decided to keep the official forecast in line with the NBM ensemble
weighted guidance. This brings another trough and associated front
through the area next Thursday, with high chance to low end likely
PoPs for showers and storms. Temperatures remain steady, just a few
degrees above average during the day and overnight.&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions tonight across the area with high pressure in
place. Clouds and rain showers will move in from the west,
limiting fog development but could put tempo MVFR conditions at
SYR and RME just before sunrise.

Thunderstorms develop late this morning into the afternoon
hours, with PROB30 groups at ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP. BGM and AVP have
the best chance to see storms as a cold front will move through
the area closer to peak heating than at ELM and ITH. MVFR
conditions are currently forecast, but a stronger cell could
drop visby down to IFR for a brief period. Thunderstorms
dissipate by early evening, with VFR conditions in place through
the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC