303
FXUS61 KBGM 121154
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions persist into the afternoon hours ahead of the
next approaching system. Snow and mixed precipitation will move
through the region Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
Strong lake effect snow is expected Thursday night into Friday
for areas along and north of the Mohawk Valley. Another storm
system is expected to impact the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
640 AM Update...

Conditions through this morning remain unchanged. Increased
PoPs earlier in the afternoon across areas west of I-81 as
updated high-res guidance is showing snow moving in a little
earlier than earlier forecast. The rest of the forecast remains
on track.


240 AM Update...

Snow remains south of the CWA tonight. The cloud shield from the
storm to the south has extended to the NY/PA border, with mostly
clear skies to the north. This has caused a large fluctuation
in temps tonight across the region. NEPA remains in the mid 20s,
while most of CNY is in the mid teens. We do have some
readings in the lower single digits where winds have been calm
and clear skies prevail.

Weather conditions will be calm through the morning before a
somewhat funky storm system moves into the region later this
afternoon through the overnight hours.

An upper level trough will slide into the central US from the
Rockies today. A mid level closed low will develop over the
baroclinic zone across the central Great Plains and slide NE
into the Great Lakes. A surface low will develop over the SW
Ohio River Valley and move into the eastern Great Lakes by the
late evening hours. This lake cutter will bring a wintry mix to
the region, starting out as snow in the evening, then
transitioning to a snow/sleet/freezing rain mix during the
overnight hours. Rain should develop in the morning as warm air
moves in from the south. What makes this system a little unusual
is that a secondary wave will develop in the evening over TN
and push into the DelMarVa area overnight. This puts our CWA
between the two areas driving the precipitation tonight and
shunts QPF to the north and to the south, leaving somewhat of a
moisture hole over much of the area. We should see an inch or so
of snow and sleet accumulations overnight, with a glaze of ice
across much of the region. Rain should develop across much of
the region by the mid-morning hours. The southern Catskills
should hold on to freezing rain into the mid- morning hours with
some higher QPF amounts, which will allow for ice accumulations
up to 0.15 inches. Northern Oneida county is expected to see a
longer period of snow with upslope enhancement and higher QPF
amounts that should allow for 2-4inches of snow/sleet to fall
during the overnight hours. Freezing rain is expected to develop
after sunrise and last into the mid- morning hours, allowing up
to 0.10 in of ice to accumulate. Because of these ice
accumulations, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect this
evening into Thursday morning.

Temps will be non diurnal during this period. The wide variety
of lows tonight will climb into the upper 20s to low 30s this
afternoon. Overnight temps will remain in the upper 20s as
southerly flow pumps warmer air into the region(thus the reason
for the wintry mix), and will slowly climb into the low to mid
30s in the morning before toping out in the mid 30s to low 40s
Thursday by late morning/early afternoon. A cold front will
push in from the west Thursday afternoon, dropping temps into
the mid 20s by 6pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update

Upper level trough swings through the area Thursday night into
Friday morning. 850mb temperatures drop off to around -15 C, and
model guidance is showing the potential for a strong band of
lake effect snow to develop off of Lake Ontario. The general
flow looks to be around 285-295 degrees, putting the heavy band
along or near the NY Thruway corridor. CMC regional is showing a
good upstream connection off of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay;
this allows for excellent inland extent of the lake band.
Forecast soundings from the 00z NAM show equilibrium/boundary
layer levels reaching 9k ft agl at Utica. There is also a deep
snow growth layer between about 2k to 7k ft agl, with strong
vertical motions modeled under the lake effect snow band.
Several hundred Joules of Lake Induced CAPE are forecast, as
lake ontario water temperatures sit around 36F or +2C. There
remains uncertainty in how far south the lake effect band will
drop later Thursday night into Friday, before it quickly lifts
back north Friday afternoon and early evening. A Winter Storm
Watch has been issued for the potential heavy lake effect snow
in Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties. Again, current
indications are that the heaviest snow will be along and north
of I-90...Including Utica, Rome, Clay and Canastota areas.

The rest of Central NY will see scattered snow showers and
flurries in this timeframe as overnight lows dip down into the
10s and it only recovers into the 20s Friday afternoon. It will
be quite breezy as well, with west winds of 10-20 mph and gusts
up to 30 mph expected. High pressure builds in Friday night,
shutting down the lake effect machine. It will be cold, but
increasing mid and high level clouds won`t allow temperatures to
bottom out too low. Expect lows mainly in the 10s once again.

The next impactful system arrives quickly across the forecast
area on Saturday. Model agreement is starting to increase some
on this time period. It is now looking cold enough at the
surface and aloft for mainly snow areawide during the daytime
Saturday. This first feature is just a weak mid level shortwave
that rolls through the region, with warm air advection snow
breaking out. Central NY and NE PA is in the right entrance
region of a 135kt jet streak at 300mb so this should enhance the
cyclonic lift over the area. QPF amounts are progged to be
between 0.15 to 0.35 for most locations, and with snow to liquid
ratios averaging 12-14:1 a few inches of snow accumulation is
becoming more likely on Saturday. High temperatures will reach
the upper 20s to mid-30s as southerly winds increase in the
afternoon and evening. Temperatures aloft and at the surface
look to continue rising overnight Saturday night. Most guidance
including the 00z GFS, ECMWF and their ensemble means now bring
a surface low up, or just west of the Appalachians into the Ohio
valley Saturday night. Continued warm air advection out ahead of
this developing low would likely lead to early evening snow
becoming a wintry mix and even plain rain for some locations
overnight. Frozen/freezing precipitation looks to hold on the
longest over the Catskills and Northern Oneida county.
Precipitation amounts could approach a half inch overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
420 AM Update

A strong low pressure system is likely to be over the forecast
area on Sunday. Just out ahead of the low some much warmer air
could potentially surge northward into the region. Blended
ensemble means (NBM) now has high temperatures reaching into the
low and mid-40s from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA....with mid
to upper 30s further north across Central NY.

The latest 00z ECS mean low position is near Syracuse at 18z
Sunday afternoon, with the 00z GEFS mean low further south near
Wilkes-barre at the same time...both ensembles show strong lows
around 990-993mb. These ensemble means have been trending north
over the past 2-4 model run cycles.

The CMC ENS mean is much further south and east with the low
center and would keep thermal profiles much colder and more
supportive of snow. All in all, there remains a lot of
uncertainty in where the low will track and what type of
precipitation will fall over the area Sunday...however it
appears the latest trends are mainly for a stronger further NW
and therefore warmer/wetter system for our area. A strong cold
front will push through the area just after the low passes
by...sometime late Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will
fall rapidly and lingering precipitation will change back to
snow showers. Lake effect snow showers are likely heading into
early next week as 850mb temperatures bottom out around -22C
Monday night into Tuesday. There will be frigid temperatures for
this period with highs in the 10s Monday and Tuesday...and
overnight lows 5 below to 5 above Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected into the early afternoon hours
across all terminals.

A winter storm will bring restrictions starting mid afternoon
into the late overnight hours. Snow will begin in the late
afternoon, spreading from SW to NE. An initial burst of IFR
visby is expected at ELM/BGM/ITH for a few hours, followed by
MVFR conditions as the snow lightens up. Precipitation is
expected to change to a wintry mix later in the evening as warm
air works its way in from the south. MVFR conditions are
expected to prevail through this period except at AVP where
IFR ceilings are expected late tonight. Rain is expected to move
in at AVP/ELM/ITH/SYR late in the TAF period, with BGM and RME
holding onto freezing rain and sleet a little longer.

LLWS out of the south at 40-50kts up to FL020 will pick up
after 04z across all terminals except for RME.

Outlook...

Thursday: Rain and patchy fog will be possible as warm air moves
over snowpack. TEMPO periods of IFR visby could be possible.

Thursday night and Friday...Lake effect snow showers and
associated restrictions possible. Highest chances at KSYR and
KRME.

Saturday... Snow developing in the morning and lasting most of
the day at all sites. Snow may mix with or change to rain at
KAVP. Restrictions likely with the potential for IFR/LIFR
visibilities due to snow at times in the afternoon.

Saturday night and Sunday... Restrictions likely from mixed
precipitation.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for PAZ040-048-072.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for PAZ038-039-043-044-047.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     evening for NYZ009-018-036-037.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC