424
FXUS61 KBGM 030704
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
304 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS... High pressure and dry conditions will continue well
into next week with daytime temperatures gradually warming
further into the 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
With a quasi-blocking pattern across the high latitudes of the
Northern Hemisphere...surface systems will be slow to move therefore
high pressure will remain over the region through Monday. Valley fog
each early morning is about the only thing of consequence to discuss
which will lift by mid morning each day. Temperatures in the upper
70s to mid 80s today will be solidly in the lower to mid 80s on
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very little change is expected with the overall pattern remaining
stagnant. The dry column of air over the Northeast will continue to
modify with temperatures warming to the mid and upper 80s on
Tuesday. A slight repositioning of the surface high leads to the
development of southeasterly flow off the Atlantic with more clouds
anticipated by Wednesday which should take a few degrees off the
high temperatures...especially for NEPA and the Southern Tier
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The 500 mb pattern appears to become more zonal during this period
but surface to 700 mb ridging remains in place. EC guidance pokes
moisture into the area Wednesday night as does the 00Z GFS to a
lesser extent. NBM guidance introduces very low PoPs from Wednesday
night through Thursday. Given the surface based moisture return
changing the environmental stability here...I can live with the idea
of isolated precipitation, but it is challenging to find a trigger
for anything more meaningful. NBM had higher precip chances for us
yesterday so the trend is drying which may continue. GFS and ICON
models are hinting at potential Western Atlantic tropical activity
during the Friday-Sunday period and WPC has a synoptic low off the
Carolinas on Day 7, otherwise we remain under a general influence of
high pressure. Just something to keep in the back of the mind for
now.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure
in control, with exception for KELM, where valley fog
development is possible again tonight. If any fog does develop,
it will quickly dissipate this morning and then mostly sunny
skies are expected through the day.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...VFR most locations. Early
morning fog possible most mornings at ELM. Thin wildfire smoke
aloft on Sunday is not expected to affect surface visibility.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KL