170
FXUS61 KBGM 310824
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
324 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring a wintry mix to the region this
morning. The wintry mix transitions to mostly rain throughout the
day as temperature climb above average. A cold front moves through
tonight and will bring temperatures back down for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

A low pressure system will move southwest to northeast through the
region today with rain and a wintry mix. There is a shallow pocket
of warm air above the surface, so pockets of freezing rain are
expected early this morning. Even for some areas where temperatures
will be above freezing, the ground may be cold enough for rain to
freeze on contact of untreated surfaces. While the amount of ice
accumulation has continued to trend downward, there were no changes
to the Winter Weather Advisory. Still, a light glaze of ice remains
possible for most of the counties in the advisory. Up in the Mohawk
Valley and Tug Hill Plateau, snow may mix with rain initially if
precipitation can make it that far north before temperatures warm
up. Moisture is also more limited northward early in the day.

Rain showers will continue across the region throughout the
afternoon and early evening hours. A cold front will begin to drop
in from the north late today. As it does, the cold air filtering in
behind it will support a transition from rain to snow. Snow showers
are then expected through the late evening hours with light
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches expected north of the Southern
Tier and lesser amounts across the Twin Tiers. If the
transition to snow occurs earlier than expected, then locally
higher amounts may be possible. As the precipitation is winding
down late tonight, soundings begin to dry out, especially in the
DGZ. With limited moisture, patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle
will be possible. Cold, north-northwesterly flow will then
support lake effect downwind of Lake Ontario and over the
Finger Lakes region late tonight and into Saturday morning.
Additional light accumulations will be possible, though less
than an inch is expected. Otherwise, high pressure will build
into bring quiet conditions to the region to start the weekend.

With strong warm air advection taking place today, temperatures will
climb into the 30s and low 40s. This is above what is normally
observed this time of year. This warmer weather is short-lived though
as temperatures will tank behind the passing of the cold front
tonight. Overnight lows will vary greatly from north to south with
single digits in Oneida County and mid 20s down in the Wyoming
Valley. While precip-free, the weekend will start out chilly as
temperatures will not recover much from the night before. Highs will
be in the teens and 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night looks like the coldest night of the period given high
pressure and light winds. For now, lowered temperatures a bit below
our blended model guidance with most locations falling into the
single digits. Some valley locations with snowcover do have the
potential to fall below zero as well.

A warm frontal boundary then looks to push through the region Sunday
afternoon and evening increasing the clouds once again. Enough lift
and moisture looks present to generate a period of snow across most
of central New York. The highest amount of moisture and QPF looks to
be near and north of the NY Thruway. QPF generally is modeled at .1
inch or less for most of the region east of I-81 outside of local
enhancement in Oneida county. With some lingering cold it is
still possible for ratios to be around 15:1 or so. Top snowfall
amounts look limited to a few inches at this time. Temperatures
should get close to freezing Sunday evening then stay rather
steady Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few spotty rain or snow showers may linger in the warm
sector Monday. The last few occasions the region has gotten into a
warm sector model guidance has been biased cold. A look at boundary
layer temperatures shows highs getting well into the 40`s Monday
with a few locations near 50 in the Wyoming valley. This may
increase the concern for river ice to weaken a bit. Ice Jams are not
expected at this time due to the brief period of warmth and lack of
QPF Monday.

A cold front then looks to follow by Tuesday with a return to more
typical winter temperatures in the 20`s and 30`s. Yet another warm
front looks to push toward the region Wednesday with another chance
for moisture to overrun and be lifted across our region. Modeling is
already being very aggressive with warm air advection at 850 mb
on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This may result in period of
freezing rain after a wintry mix to start.

Eventually we get into the warm sector and change over to several
rounds of rainfall Thursday. Temperatures currently look to warm
well into the 40`s and even a few 50`s Thursday. Dewpoints are
forecasted to rise well above freezing as well. This would promote a
rapid snowmelt on Thursday where snow cover is present. QPF combined
with the snowmelt may pose some flooding issues but given
uncertainities at this point, details are limited. Ice Jams would
have a moderate chance of occurrence should this outcome pan
out. The cold front is then modeled to push into the region
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All terminals will be VFR to start. A low pressure system will
move in from the southwest beginning around 09z. Precipitation
and restrictions will impact AVP but will become widespread
across the region throughout the morning hours. For most, the
main precip type will be rain though freezing rain will be
possible at BGM for a brief period. After 00z, rain may mix with
snow or become just snow. Ceilings and visibilities will both
quickly fall with LIFR restrictions expected at all terminals.
With how quickly conditions will change, there is some
uncertainty on the exact timing.

Winds will be light throughout the period, even becoming light
and variable later today. Low-level wind shear was added back
into all terminals, though that should only last for the first
few hours of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday...Cold air moves back in with lingering light snow
showers during the morning and spotty restrictions; Otherwise
mainly VFR.

Sunday...Slightly warmer conditions with a wintry mix and
associated restrictions possible.

Monday...Warmer with potential for rain or mixed precipitation
and associated restrictions possible, mainly for CNY terminals.

Tuesday...Another cold front moves through with potential for
lake effect snow once again mainly affecting CNY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ024-025-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL