833
FXUS61 KBGM 250009
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
809 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the region this afternoon into tonight. A cooler air mass will
then move in tomorrow and stick around throughout the week.
Isolated showers will also be possible through midweek, mainly
over Central NY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
245 PM Update:

    Key Messages:

* Low chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon (10-20%) as well
  as a flash flood risk into tonight along a slow progressing  cold
  front.

* Cooler weather with lake effect rain showers starting tomorrow and
  lasting into next weekend with a long wave trough setting of over
  the Northeastern US.

    Discussion:

    ...Now through Tomorrow Morning...

     Severe Risk:  The Finger Lakes into the I-90 corridor have
mostly scattered out with a good amount of heating as many
observations have risen into the upper 70s and low 80s and dew
points in the low 60s. SPC mesoanalysis already has over 1500
J/kg of surface based cape and about 1000 J/kg of Mixed Layer
CAPE. 0-6 km shear is sitting around 30 knots with better shear
above 6 km with a strengthening 250 mb jet streak with the
trough digging in. 0-6 km shear will be increasing through the
afternoon, likely getting to 40 to 45 knots by sunset along and
ahead of the surface cold front. Low level lapse rates have
improved with dry air in the mid levels so a few strong to
damaging wind gusts are possible with any of the stronger
storms. Storms will become linear along the front in the late
afternoon and early evening transitioning to more of a flash
flood risk.

     Flash Flood Risk:  With slow forward movement of the cold
front and the shear vectors parallel to the orientation of the
front, training storms is a concern later this afternoon and
overnight. HREF Probability Matched Mean for 6 hour QPF does
show a bullseye still for areas of CNY into the Catskills with a
narrow corridor of 2 to 3 inches and the evolution of the
storms today makes that corridor look to set up potentially in
or south of Syracuse into Oneida county. The heaviest
precipitation will be before midnight before instability really
wanes and southerly flow at 850 mb drops off, ending the feed of
moisture into the front as a low deepens off of the Mid
Atlantic coast.

     Rest of Period:  The front will continue to move through
NEPA after midnight with mainly scattered light showers. With
the trough continuing to dig in, the 250 mb jet streak moves
off to the east with NY/PA entering the left entrance region
with a subsidence inversion setting up by sunrise tomorrow with
NW flow.

    ...Tomorrow Afternoon into Next Weekend...

With 850 mb temperatures falling below 10C and even as low as
5C and with Lake Erie and Ontario having lake surface
temperatures over 20C, there will be plenty of lake induced
instability. Rain showers likely will develop off of the Great
Lakes Monday through Wednesday. With strong solar heating still
at this time of the year and cold air aloft, there will likely
be some afternoon instability that develops with scattered light
rain showers developing through out much of the region but
precipitation chances were kept low for now as the rain showers
will not be heavy enough to cause issues and they will be brief
where they occur.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and storms will remain across the area into
the overnight hours. A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions are
expected over the next several hours as these storms move
through the area. Radar trends show development to the west
starting to dissipate, so we shouldn`t see another round of
heavy rain or storms develop after the current batch moves
through terminals from west to east.

Fog is expected to develop at ELM tonight with the heavy rain
they have received today. Rain has dropped temperatures
quickly, which should allow fog to form a few hours earlier than
guidance suggests. IFR/LIFR conditions should bounce around for
a couple hours before settling in to LIFR conditions after 6z.
BGM could also see fog tonight, but confidence is not as high as
guidance is not showing it occurring. With the rain expected to
move in over the next few hours, we should get cool enough that
we get some periods of IFR fog late tonight. The one factor
that could hinder this is if the winds remain active.


Outlook...

Monday through midday Wednesday...Scattered showers may bring
occasional minor restrictions, especially Central NY terminals
due to lake-enhancement.

Late Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...JTC