003
FXUS61 KBGM 220513
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
113 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and warmer weather is expected through the start of the
weekend. A cold front will bring the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. Some scattered showers
then linger into next week and temperatures trend cooler.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
235 PM Update:

Short Term (Through Saturday):

Stratus clouds have been slow to erode throughout the morning
into the early afternoon, but are slowly eroding from northeast
to southwest. This trend is expected to continue the remainder
of the afternoon as high pressure gradually brings in drier air.
By tonight, mostly clear skies are expected to be present area-
wide. Radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop down
to the mid 40s to mid 50s and will also result in patchy fog,
especially in the valleys.

High pressure will remain in control for all of Friday and into
Saturday. This will result in plenty of sunshine for Friday
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dewpoints in the 50s
will keep humidity levels low and comfortable. Radiational
cooling will bring cool temperatures again Friday night with
lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday will start off dry and mostly sunny. Higher clouds will
increase later in the day ahead of the next system. Highs are
expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, but with dewpoints
remaining in the 50s, humidity levels will remain on the lower
side.

Long Term (Saturday Night Through Wednesday):

An upper level trough arrives Saturday night, which will bring a
chance for showers overnight. A rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out as well, but chance for thunder remains on the low
side for Saturday night.

The associated cold front will move through the region on
Sunday, which will bring a greater chance of showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Due to the slower
nature of the front, locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out
despite not very impressive PWATs for this time of the year
(1.00"-1.50" PWATs)

Behind this front, a large, anomalous upper level trough moves
over the region for Monday, Tuesday and even Wednesday. This
feature will bring a return to cooler than normal temperatures,
more clouds, breezy west-northwest winds and scattered showers.
Some lake effect rain showers are even possible as 850mb
temperatures fall to around +5C Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs on
Monday are expected to be in the 70s most of the area, before
mid 60s to lower 70s are expected for highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Patchy fog is expected tonight with fog already at ELM with LIFR
visibilities. Fog is also possible at RME, ITH, and BGM. IFR to
LIFR restrictions will be possible at ITH and BGM. If RME does
get fog, visibilities are expected to be in MVFR. Fog clears up
by 12 to 13z and then VFR is expected at all terminals. Winds
will be light and variable.

Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR, but patchy valley fog may bring
restrictions at KELM.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Scattered showers may bring occasional
restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...BTL