702
FXUS61 KBGM 301801
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
201 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Upper level low will spin over the area this afternoon gradually
shifting to the east this evening. This will keep scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast.


2) Drier weather returns to the area Friday and Saturday as weak
ridging and high pressure move overhead.


3) The weather pattern turns more active and wetter heading into the
second half of the weekend. Expect a warming trend next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid and upper level low pressure system slowly rotates over the
northeast coast this afternoon gradually shifting east this
evening with drier air pushing in behind it. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into
the afternoon before tapering off. Instability also increases
towards the afternoon hours allowing additional showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the area. Instability parameters
are modest with ML CAPE values up to 500 J/Kg at most, along
with 20 knots of shear. It remains humid with dew points in the
mid to upper 60s and pwats around 1.3 inches. We can`t rule out
some brief locally heavy rainfall with the storms this
afternoon, but overall severe weather is not expected today.
Highest PoPs are over the Catskills of east-central NY. The rain
showers end tonight and skies partially clear. Winds turn light
as high pressure gradually builds in from the west. This will
be a good setup to see valley fog development. Lows dip down
into the mid-50s and low 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

With high pressure in place Friday through Saturday conditions
remain generally dry. There is a slight chance for a late day shower
or thunderstorm to pop up over the Catskills where the slow
departing trough will still hold some influence. Otherwise
temperatures warm into the upper 70s to mid-80s, with generally
comfortable humidity levels. Similar conditions are expected
Saturday with mostly dry conditions in the morning and afternoon
hours. As an upper level ridge moves in on Saturday, southwesterly
flow settles into the region. As a result, temperatures trend
slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s over the
region. Dry conditions will be short lived as another frontal system
approaches the region in the evening and overnight hours increasing
precipitation chances.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

By Sunday, the next deep trough, front and low pressure center
will be moving into the area from the midwest. With southwesterly
flow out ahead of it, abundant moisture gets advected into the
region increasing PWATs 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Model consensus is
good on the arrival timing and position of these features. It is
too early for specific details on exactly how much instability
will be present, as that will certainly depend on day time
surface heating. The main concern is the risk for excessive
heavy rainfall as this system moves through. Model guidance does
show some timing differences in when the system will exit. GFS
keeps the upper level low rotating over the east coast through
Wednesday, while the ECMWF and Canadian show it moving east
sometime Monday with an upper level ridge building in behind.
Beyond this, expect a warming trend for the middle of next week
with chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms also in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Spotty showers and intermittent MVFR ceilings will occur for
just a few hours after 18Z Wednesday on the back end of
departing low pressure. After clouds scatter out into this
evening, KELM appears very likely to experience restrictive
valley fog during the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Ground moisture
from recent rainfall may lead to fog development at several
other terminals as well but there is uncertainty for how thick
and whether it will reach terminal levels. Regardless, VFR
conditions are anticipated during the daytime Friday after any
fog burns off.

Outlook:

Late Friday through Saturday evening...Mainly VFR.

Late Saturday Night through Sunday night...Rain and restrictions
likely, with a chance of thunderstorms, as a moist frontal
system passes through the region.

Monday through Tuesday...Lingering chance of scattered showers
and isolated thunder; associated restrictions. Mainly Monday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ES/MJM
AVIATION...MDP