162
FXUS61 KBGM 231502
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1002 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system brings snow showers to northern central NY
today with minimal accumulations expected. High pressure to the
south will keep the Twin Tiers and Northeast PA dry, but with
increasing clouds. Another weak wave of low pressure moves in
on Monday into Monday night along with warmer temperatures.
A warming trend continues through next week with a few passing
systems bringing on and of shower chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

1000 AM Update

Stratus clouds are overspreading much of the area this morning
in the cool NW flow. The Wyoming Valley and Poconos remain
mostly sunny at this time, but even here clouds are forecast to
increase heading into the afternoon hours. A few light snow
showers and flurries are occurring up across the I-90 corridor,
Mohawk Valley and points further north...minimal accumulations
of under 1 inch are expected. Made minor adjustments to PoPs
later today. Did start to trend PoPs up into the chance category
heading into Monday night as some of the CAMs such as the 12/13z
HRRR and 09z RAP are being more aggressive showing a band of
rain--mixed with wet snow dropping NW to SE across the area in
this time frame. 12z NAM and NAM nest remain drier, the
CONSSHORT is trending higher with PoPs, and we`ll have to see
how the 13z and 17z NBM trend for this period.


600 AM Update...

Light lake effect showers are pushing a bit further into the
area than previously forecasted. Made slight adjustments to pops
to include a slight chance over the Eastern Finger Lakes
region. Otherwise made the usual changes to update temperatures
and dew points using current observations.

300 AM Update...

Weak upper level short wave continues to move through the region
this morning bringing a chance of snow showers north of the NYS
Thruway. With high pressure to our south dry air should keep showers
from advancing further into our area. With the region in between two
features, there will be some variation in sky cover especially in
the morning. Central NY should remain partly to mostly cloudy while
northeast PA will see partly to mostly sunny skies. As this short
waves passes to our east west-northwest flow settles in behind with
some residual lake effect snow showers expected over northern
central NY. Clouds also begin to advance further into the region as
the afternoon progresses. Light accumulations are expected with a
dusting to locally 2 inches mainly in northern Oneida county. Highs
will range in the upper 20s to mid 30s over central NY, while
temperatures climb into the mid to upper 30s over NE PA. Otherwise
weak high pressure continues to push north into our region tonight
with quiet conditions expected. Overnight lows will fall into the
upper teens to mid 20s.

Another short wave moves in on Monday bringing warm air advection to
the region as flow shifts southwest. Temperatures aloft will
warm above freezing along with surface temperatures. Highs will
climb into the mid 30s to mid 40s by afternoon. Otherwise
expecting a quiet precip free day with partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak mid level disturbance rolls Monday night Tuesday. This
disturbance has trended a bit weaker. As a result the chances for a
few rain and snow showers were lowered a bit. Any QPF or snowfall
looks to be very light. Given southerly winds ahead of the
disturbance temperatures should not fall much Monday night and
rise into the 40`s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The window for any lake effect precipitation looks very short as
high pressure builds in for a short stay Wednesday. With continued
west and southwest flow temperatures again should get well into the
40`s after starting out near 30. Not much fall in temperatures
Wednesday night ahead of the next system. Temperatures should warm
well above freezing aloft so any sub freezing surface air lingering
would result in a few patches of freezing rain. Regardless,
temperatures warm quickly to around 40 ahead of a cold front
Thursday. Enough moisture and lift look present ahead of the front
for some scattered rain showers.

A quick shot of north to northwesterly flow looks to open the
chances for some lake effect snow showers Thursday night and Friday
with temperatures back down in the 20`s and 30`s. Yet another
clipper type system for the weekend with mainly rain showers given
the expected track to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers are expected over SYR and RME this
morning bringing MVFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibilities. A
wind shift from westerly to northwesterly this afternoon will
allow for lake effect clouds over ITH and BGM to drop ceilings
to MVFR as well. Although there is uncertainty in the exact
timing of this as model guidance is borderline. Confidence was
not high enough to include MVFR ceilings at ELM. Otherwise AVP
is expected to remain VFR through the entire TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon and night: Lingering MVFR CIGs possible at
SYR/RME/ITH/BGM; VFR elsewhere. (moderate to high confidence)

Monday: Mainly VFR expected (moderate confidence)

Tuesday...Scattered rain/snow showers along with associated
restrictions. (moderate confidence)

Wednesday...Mainly dry and VFR (moderate confidence)

Thursday...Chance for showers and associated restrictions
(moderate confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MJM
NEAR TERM...ES/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES