792
FXUS61 KBGM 221641
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1241 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region today, bringing dry
conditions and warm temperatures. High pressure and warm, dry
weather remains through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Only minor changes with the sunrise and midday updates, previous
discussion below.


625 AM Update...

Showers have dissipated. Cloudy skies should remain through the
morning before clearing moves in early this afternoon. The
forecast remains on track.

220 AM Update...

A few showers remain across the northern Catskills and NEPA, and
should dissipate in the next couple of hours.

Today will be dry as ridging builds into the area. Winds are
progged to pick up as isobars stack between the departing trough
and building ridge. Gusts up to 20kts will be possible from
mid-morning into the late afternoon hours. Clouds will also
clear as the day progresses, with mostly sunny skies expected by
early afternoon. The strong dose of sun will allow temperatures
will rise into the 60s across NY with low 70s in NEPA.

The surface high is expected to move overhead Tuesday night,
bringing light winds and mostly clear skies to the area. This
will allow radiational cooling to drop temps into the mid 30s
across much of the region. Sheltered valleys could see temps
fall below freezing while the Wyoming Valley will stay in the
low 40s.

Wednesday will be an amazing spring day. High pressure brings
mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing into the mid 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM Update...

High pressure remains overhead Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Radiational cooling will help to keep overnight
temperatures around average; in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Temperatures will improve greatly to above average high
temperatures of low to upper 70s for Thursday as the high
pressure erodes and slides eastward, allowing warm southerly
flow to advect these much warmer conditions into our area.

Uncertainty lies with an incoming shortwave from the Great Lakes
region Thursday late morning/early afternoon. The ECMWF and GFS
both have solutions that favor our area receiving
precipitation, whereas the Canadian keeps the shortwave north of
our area. If the trends in the ECMWF and GFS solutions happen,
we would see scattered showers and possibly a few rumbles of
thunder as there will be some instability Thursday afternoon
with about a 100 J/kg of CAPE. Overnight Thursday temperatures
will remain above average in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
310 AM Update...

Chances for showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder
returns for the end of the week as a shortwave trough and
surface low with associated cold front begins to approach from
the west. There remains uncertainty in the track and timing of
the low and cold frontal passage, but showers are possible
starting as early as Friday afternoon but the better chance
looks to be Friday night into Saturday. High pressure seems to
build back in on Sunday for a quieter second half to the
weekend.

High temperatures are expected to climb back into the low and
mid 70s on Friday, then lower a bit Saturday and Sunday as the
rain showers and cold front move through with temperatures
mainly in the upper 50s to the mid 60s. Temperatures look to
rebound again early next week as upper level ridging returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west to northwest subsiding
between 21-00Z at all TAF sites.


Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday... Showers with possible restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC