136
FXUS61 KBGM 050542
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
142 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The majority of the weekend will be dry until a cold front
brings rain showers into the region late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. This will be followed by much cooler temperatures
next week with the potential for frost some nights.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1220 AM Update:

Only change with this update was to increase sky cover a bit for
the next few hours to reflect latest satellite trends.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

935 PM Update...

Made some minor adjustments to PoPs this evening, mainly from
the northern Finger Lakes to the Mohawk Valley where PoPs were
increased over the next couple of hours with showers most
numerous in this area. Some clearing is still expected overnight
with some patchy valley fog from the increase in moisture. The
rest of the forecast remains on track at this time.

625 PM Update...

Showers have made their way into western NY and are just about
to enter our far western counties. This is a little bit faster
than projected, so sped up PoPs a little bit over the next
several hours using the HRRR as a guide. The HRRR is closest to
reality among the CAMS, although it is running about an hour
slow with its projection of the showers, so took that into
account. Showers look to exit to our east between 06-08Z.

350 PM Update

Partly sunny and very warm conditions will persist into the
early evening hours. A front is currently moving over Lake Erie
which will approach our western counties by around 8 PM or so,
bringing chances for a few rain showers. This front will then
move through the I-81 corridor by late evening with a few
showers possible; there is not much moisture with this feature
and some low level dry air present, so capped PoPs at 20-30%.
QPF was lowered to just a few hundreths of an inch or less with
this system. The front will progress east, exiting the CWA by
around or just after 2 AM. Skies will gradually clear and winds
turn NW behind the front. With the light rain wetting the ground
fog formation seems likely, especially in the valleys where
winds will try to decouple. Mild with lows 45-55.

After the morning valley fog Saturday turns mostly sunny under
high pressure. Expect light NW winds 6-12 mph with seasonably
mild temperatures in the mid-60s to lower 70s. Staying quiet,
clear and calm under high pressure Saturday night. Just some
patchy river valley fog once again, and cooler with lows in the
upper 30s to mid-40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update:

Brief upper level ridge moves over our region on Sunday along with
high pressure at the surface. These features will help keep
conditions mostly dry with mostly sunny skies expected for the
first half of the day. Southerly flow will allow temperates to
climb into the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. Although
Sunday will be accompanied by strong gusts during the day with
peak gusts up to 25 mph. Clouds begin to fill in from the
northwest Sunday afternoon ahead of the next approaching frontal
system. Scattered rain showers return to the region Sunday
evening as a cold front passes through. Thunderstorms also
cannot be ruled out, even overnight, but most model guidance
show little to no instability. Showers are expected to last
overnight as well with lows in the 50s.

Upper level trough associated with an upper low north of our region
will move east and into our region on Monday. As the upper low
rotates over Canada it will send multiple shortwaves into our region
along with persistent west to northwest flow. This allows lake
effect rain showers to develop over central NY Monday morning. These
showers are expected to last throughout most of the day potentially
lingering into the overnight period as well. With cooler air in
place highs will only climb into the 50s Monday afternoon with
overnight lows falling into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM Update:

Similar pattern continues during this period with a broad upper
level low north of our region rotating and sending multiple
shortwaves to the region. Northwesterly flow will keep lake
effect shower chances throughout most of the week. Those in the
Southern Tier and in areas southward will stay dry throughout
this forecast period, through a couple of stray showers may find
their way into the Twin Tiers. Upper level low moves east by
Friday with a upper level ridge beginning to build in. There are
timing differences towards the end of the period, therefore
went with the NBM.

Northwesterly flow along with falling heights will keep conditions
cool during the week with highs remaining in the mid to upper 50s.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s with
potential for frost to develop.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering low level moisture will result in patchy fog and
occasional IFR visby restrictions early this morning, with the
greatest confidence being at KELM. Patchy fog and associated
restrictions are also possible at KRME, KSYR, and KITH and TEMPO
groups have been added during the most likely period of seeing
this (mainly after 08Z or so). Any lingering fog will dissipate
by 14Z or so, resulting in VFR restrictions for the remainder of
the TAF period (at least through 06Z Sunday).

.Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Another frontal system moves in late
Sunday with more showers and possible restrictions. A few wrap-
around showers and lower clouds may persist across north-central
NY terminals Monday.

Tuesday & Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/DK/MJM
NEAR TERM...BJG/DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJG