051
FXUS61 KBGM 201045
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
645 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today
as a cold front pushes through the region. A cool and dry airmass
settles overhead on Monday and Tuesday, before the heat and
humidity return later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will push across the region today. There remains
some potential for strong to severe storms from around noon and
persisting into early this evening. There remains some
uncertainty for instability today, as cloud cover could limit
heating out ahead of the front. The greatest threat area
remains to be east and south of Binghamton, NY...which also
aligns where SPC has the Slight Risk. However, latest guidance
is pushing the instability even further eastward, so the 12Z
severe outlook could push portions of the slight risk further
east as well.

The passage of the front is expected to be between 3-8 PM from
just east/south of the Finger Lakes when the convection starts
to develop through the Catskills and Poconos by the evening. The
main threats will be damaging wind gusts, but some hail can`t
be ruled out. The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding
appears to be low (5% or less) given the very progressive
movement of the storms along the front, and the lack of deep
moisture (PW around 1.5 inches).

Much cooler air will arrive this evening as cool Canadian high
pressure pushes in. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 50s and
highs on Monday will only be low 70s most areas under mostly
sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
245 AM Update...

Cool Canadian high pressure dominates this period bringing northerly
flow and calm/clear conditions. This setup will allow for ideal
radiational cooling Monday night with lows dropping into the
upper 40s to low 50s. This pattern continues into Tuesday with
seasonably cool temperatures, low humidity, and plenty of
sunshine. Highs will reach the low to upper 70s in the afternoon.
By Tuesday night upper level ridging begins to build allowing
winds to gradually shift to the southwest. Another calm and
clear night is expected with lows falling into the low to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 AM Update...

An upper level ridge and southwest flow will allow heat and
humidity to gradually build through the week. High pressure will
remain in place Wednesday and Thursday keeping skies mostly
clear and allowing temperatures to climb from the upper 70s to
mid 80s on Wednesday, into the mid 80s to low 90s by Thursday.
Dew points will also rise into the upper 60s to low 70s making
conditions feel more humid. There is potential for Heat Advisory
Headlines late in the week, especially if dry conditions
persist. The ridge begins to break down by Friday as a frontal
system moves in bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday. Despite this, temperatures will remain
warm through the end of the week with highs generally in the
low 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Low stratus will persist this morning across the Twin Tiers and
into NE PA with mostly MVFR ceilings, but brief IFR can`t be
ruled out. This stratus layer should mix out before noon,
however, scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon as a cold front crosses the region with brief IFR to
MVFR restrictions.

Dry conditions are expected to return this evening.


Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday..Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR; Low chance (40% or less) for showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT/MPK
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK