978
FXUS61 KBGM 220615
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
115 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure will pass DELMARVA overnight and
spread light rain into northeast Pennsylvania. Another weak
front and clipper system passes by just to the north on Sunday,
with a chance for a few rain or snow showers in Central NY. High
pressure returns on Monday, bringing mainly sunny skies and
mild temperatures across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The latest trend in the model guidance for tonight is to bring the
weak wave of low pressure a little further north and tracking
off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday morning. light rain showers
are expected across much of NE PA overnight with rainfall
amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch.

Saturday will feature a colder NW flow pattern, with 850mb temps
around -5C or -6C by afternoon. This may try to develop a weak lake
effect response...but likely this will only be an increase in
clouds across Central NY and possibly a flurries or light
sprinkles. Otherwise, skies look to remain overcast to mostly
cloudy through much of the day across Central NY...with clearing
skies and some afternoon sun likely for NE PA and Sullivan
County NY.

For Saturday night, skies will clear, so adjusted low
temperatures down a few degrees below NBM guidance, with lows
down into the low 20s most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front pushes across the area Sunday as a weak clipper
system passes by just to the north by Sunday evening. This
system will keep more clouds around north of the Twin Tiers on
Sunday, with a few rain or wet snow showers further north in
Central NY. NE PA remains dry and partly to mostly sunny on
Sunday. This system will push a cold front through the region
Sunday night with brief cold air advection and NW flow
developing Sunday night into Monday morning. T850 dips to -6C
to -8C depending on the model, so cold see a brief period of
lake effect snow showers early Monday morning. At this time,
boundary layer temperatures are marginal and may be too warm for
any snow in the lower elevations, but the hills could see up to
a half inch of snow by daybreak on Monday.

A large high pressure system then settles into the Mid-Atantic
and Northeast US for Monday. This will bring seasonably mild
weather for the start of the week. Clouds will be on the
increase for Monday night, out ahead of the next warm front.
Current model guidance timing keeps it dry overnight though with
lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm air advection on Tuesday with a warm front pushing into the
region. This will bring periods of rain showers and plenty of
clouds, but temperature will be above average and on the mild
side through Wednesday, with highs well into the 50s on
Wednesday.

A strong cold front approaches the area sometime around
Thanksgiving (Thursday). The exact timing and magnitude of the
cold air mass remains uncertain at this time, but models have
been trending warmer and for a shorter-lived cold period than
previous runs have advertised. Still expecting a couple of days
of below average readings by the end week. The cold air
advection may also favor lake effect snow showers for portions
of the forecast area, but still too early to pin point at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers are moving in from the west tonight, which will bring a
smattering of IFR and MVFR restrictions.

AVP should start seeing rain fall in the next hour or so and
with that, current MVFR restrictions should periodically fall to
IFR for the first few hours of rain and then lock into IFR
conditions once the lower atmosphere becomes fully saturated.
IFR restrictions are expected to last into the mid morning
hours. Rain should move out of the area then with MVFR ceilings
returning into the afternoon, followed by VFR by the evening.

RME is a tricky forecast tonight as it is currently foggy there
with IFR visby but no model guidance has shown this outside of
the NAM/NAMNest runs. While these models tend to over produce
IFR restrictions, it rained at the terminal earlier this
evening for about an hour, which provided enough moisture to
bring MVFR visby to the area for the past few hours which these
models had. Visby has dropped to 1-2 miles over the past 30
minutes (which these models had as well) and given not much is
expected to change tonight with cloud cover remaining the same
and temps and dewpoints sticking close to each other,
confidence was high enough to keep IFR visby at RME through the
overnight hours(which the NAM/NAMNest also has). Usually I do
not like to rely on one model but RME is a hard terminal for
forecast for as guidance does not pick up on fog very well in
this area and we have missed it multiple times over the past few
months. IFR should lift by mid-morning with VFR conditions
remaining through the day.

ELM/BGM/ITH/SYR should see MVFR ceilings tonight, lifting to VFR
by the afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Scattered rain/snow showers and associated
restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Chance for rain showers and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...JTC