317
FXUS61 KBGM 040745
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
345 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry pressure will be slow to depart. Haze will also be
thinner today, allowing sunshine through to boost temperatures
to their warmest levels so far this year. A frontal boundary
will then drift over the area Thursday through Saturday, with
showery waves of low pressure, and perhaps thunder at times. A
few of the storms Thursday afternoon could be gusty.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update...
Today will feature the warmest temperatures so far this year,
as southwesterly return flow occurs on the back side of
departing high pressure. Attention then turns to thunderstorm
potential Thursday afternoon-early evening.

Return flow gets involved as high pressure shifts coastward
today. Looking at the HRRR smoke model, some vertically-
integrated smoke is depicted but not nearly as thick as
yesterday. Thus sunshine should have no problem fully realizing
projected warm temperatures. Widespread 80s, with a few spots
around 90 degrees, can be anticipated.

That said, an inversion at the top of the boundary layer due to
thermal capping aloft, will provide a focus point for a fair-
weather cumulus deck to collect during mixing hours; few to
scattered. However, a very weak shortwave is evident on water
vapor imagery, which will attempt to ride over the ridge. While
chances are very small, a few attempts at convective cells could
yield brief very spotty afternoon showers for a few locations
within the Twin Tiers to Finger Lakes areas. Several Convection-
Allowing Models (CAMS) have started to catch on to this, and
with the shortwave evident on satellite as well, it was enough
to add mention for a slight chance of a shower for those
locations. Vast majority of time and area though will simply
have a dry and very warm day. Any cumulus towers should remain
squatty and warm enough to rule out any lightning, and will also
be prone to getting entrained by dry air.

Strengthening warm air advection tonight, along with increasing
cloud cover in the pre-dawn hours Thursay, will hold overnight
lows to warm values generally in the 60s.

A cold front will advance into the area from the northwest on
Thursday. Front is well-marked in tandem with an embedded low
amplitude wave aloft. Timing is favorable for heating and
instability to be harnessed to cause thunderstorm development in
the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area,
especially Twin Tiers northward, in a Marginal Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms on Thursday. This is a 1 on a scale of 5. Shear is
pretty limited, around 20-25 knots for 0-6 km. However, things
are more interesting in the vertical, with Convective Available
Potential Energy (CAPE) probabilities of 60-80 percent for
getting above 1000 J/kg and 40-60 percent for above 1500 J/kg.
So that is instability, but Downdraft-CAPE (DCAPE) is also
depicted around or even above 1000 J/kg. That is a pretty
elevated value. So while storms themselves may not be that
organized, the cells and/or small clusters may have good
potential for mixing down strong to severe gusts. Enough of the
CAPE aloft extends into the hail growth zone for isolated hail
to also be possible.

The wave aloft will progress east Thursday night, but the
surface front will be a little more amorphous, slowing down
while trying to get through. An area of low pressure hanging up
around the Carolinas will complicate the front, to stall it.
this will keep showers lingering Thursday night, though with
loss of moisture depth in the wake of the wave aloft, amounts
then will be light/shallow moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update...
Main issue to keep an eye on this period, will be for whether
locally excessive rainfall occurs due to repeated batches of
showers and embedded thunder.

The stalled front transitions to a warm front and with showers
and thunderstorms along and north of it. A developing low off of
the Carolina coast is not looking probable to get into to area
directly, but it is likely to cause the pattern to hang up for
a bit. That will thus keep us in the alley for a new wave of low
pressure to move up the Ohio Valley along the frontal boundary
later Friday through early Saturday. At this point, areal
average rainfall forecasts are up to around an inch for Friday
through Saturday which itself is not a big problem. The thing we
will need to monitor, though, is which locations end up getting
locally heavier amounts due to repeated rain batches Thursday
through Saturday. Thus, in the end, isolated flash flooding
cannot totally be ruled out where things stack up over time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 AM Update...
Things generally remain unsettled early next week, with
transition from one trough-like pattern into another.

One upper wave lifts out Saturday night, only to a new upper
trough to dig into the Upper Midwest, cutting off into a closed
low in the western Great Lakes early next week. In between,
while a few spotty showers cannot totally be ruled out Sunday,
our mainly dry window will indeed be the second half of the
weekend to maybe early Monday. We will then enter a wave-
riddled backing southwesterly flow ahead of the Great Lakes
upper low. Details will not be clearer for some time, since
individual wave timing is unknown. However, the pattern would
support occasional showers and maybe thunder Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry high pressure is starting to nudge coastward yet is still
in charge with VFR conditions through this TAF period.
Increasing southwesterly flow on the back side of the departing
high, just of the surface, is posing marginal low level wind
shear conditions for the NY terminals prior to 12Z this morning.
However, that will go away around or shortly after dawn, and
winds will still be fairly light at the surface with peak gusts
staying under 15 knots during mixing hours.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...Front in vicinity with waves of low
pressure will cause occasional showers and associated
restrictions. A chance for thunder as well, especially
afternoons. Best thunder chances will be Thursday for NY
terminals and Friday for KAVP.

Sunday...Low pressure moving east with small chance of lingering
showers but improving conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The forecast high at Binghamton is forecast to be 85 degrees on
Wednesday 6/4. This is right around the record of 84 set back
in 1951. Both Syracuse and Scranton forecast highs, of 90 and 88
respectively, are expected to be well under their records.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
CLIMATE...