388
FXUS61 KBGM 220542
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
142 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures stay mild Tuesday before hot and humid conditions
return for the second half of the week. Dry conditions will
last through midweek before showers and storms return on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure will remain in control through at least
Tuesday. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 40s and 50s.
While conditions will be dry, some model soundings show a
shallow inversion with dew point depressions small enough where
patchy fog and/or low stratus develops in the valleys early
Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be closer to normal yet still
mild tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s under sunny
skies. Tuesday night will be slightly warmer as well but still
quite pleasant as temps fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The center of the high drifts eastward and parks over the Atlantic
by Wednesday. Conditions will remain dry through most of the period
though as the high keeps rain out of the Northeast. Low chances for
showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Thursday night
as a frontal system approaches the region. Heights increase and flow
becomes southwesterly as summer returns beginning around midweek.
Temperatures will max out in the 80s for a majority of the region
but then continue to climb on Thursday with highs in the upper 80s
to mid 90s. Muggy conditions return as well, especially Thursday as
dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s. The natural air conditioning
also gets turned off by Thursday as lows will be in the 60s/low 70s
Wednesday night and then just 70s Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase across the region Friday as
the aforementioned frontal system drops south. With increasing
cloud cover and showers with the front, temperatures on Friday
were lowered below NBM guidance for most of the region. Southern
areas across the Wyoming Valley and Poconos were untouched as
skies are expected to stay mostly to partly sunny during peak
heating. A couple of disturbances move through during the
weekend and combined with a warm, moist environment, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the start of next week.
WPC has put the region in the ERO for Friday and despite
elevated PWATs, the current dry stretch should be enough to
hinder any hydro issues. However, similarly to most events this
summer, heavy rainfall will be possible with any system
mentioned in the long term period and could raise hydro concerns
if locations are impacted multiple times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the next 24
hours (at least through 06Z Wednesday). There continues to be a
low, but non-zero, chance for some patchy fog at KELM early this
morning, but current thinking is that the airmass will be too
dry for fog formation. Higher clouds in the area of KELM may
also decrease the fog potential.

Winds will be light (at 5kts or less) throughout the period, but
will shift from a northwesterly direction today to more easterly
or southeasterly this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BJG