939
FXUS61 KBGM 230555
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1255 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system rotates over our region with
lingering rain and snow showers today. As the low shifts east
lake effect showers will develop tonight. A cold frontal
boundary then brings an additional chance of rain and snow
showers early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

Not much change with the midnight update. A few areas with snow
cover and breaks in the clouds are cooling slightly more. Also,
potential for fog to develop toward sunrise given a warmer
northwest flow forming over snow cover.

615 PM Update...

Lighter, less intense mainly snow showers, with mixes of rain,
will continue across Central NY and NE PA through tonight as a
mature, stacked low pressure system spins directly overhead.

For tomorrow, mixed rain/snow showers for Central NY (mainly
rain for areas around the NYS Thruway Corridor) from a small
shortwave causing lake-enhancement.

Near-term forecast remains on track.


330 PM Update...

Low pressure system continues to rotate over our region with a mix
of scattered rain and snow showers. The main band of showers has
pushed off to the western portion of our region with an
additional round filling in over our eastern counties. Overall
temperatures range in the mid 30s to low 40s this afternoon with
variable precipitation types. Some areas have transitioned to
rain with higher elevations still reporting snow. Showers are
expected to be lighter in nature and linger through the early
evening hours. Dry slot will work into the system from the east
allowing showers to fall apart over most of the region. Although
as the low rotates it will bring some isolated showers back
into northeast PA and the Western Catskills region this evening.
Additional snow accumulations up to 4 inches in expected in the
Western Catskills and up to an inch elsewhere. Therefore went
with the decision cancel the remaining Winter storm warnings and
advisories this update.

As temperatures fall overnight precipitation type will transition
back to snow, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Expecting a lull in showers tonight, but some high resolution models
hint that there could be a stray shower or two popping up.
Otherwise wind direction shifts northwest tomorrow behind the
system bringing some lake effect showers into our region.
Temperatures will keep snow showers in the forecast for the
morning hours before warming in the afternoon. Highs will range
in the low to mid 40s with rain showers expected for the rest of
the day over central NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update:

A west-northwest flow will develop Saturday night as the trough
finally exits the region. This will result in lake effect rain
and snow showers, but with marginal temperatures, areas along
the usual lake effect snow areas will only see a mix of rain and
snow showers and therefore little to no snow accumulation. Some
of the higher elevations of Central NY may see light snow
accumulations (up to a few tenths of an inch). Lows are expected
to be in the 30s.

Additional scattered lake effect rain and snow showers are
expected on Sunday, mainly in Central NY. Otherwise, gradual
clearing skies are expected for Northeast PA. Highs are expected
to be the 40s. High pressure then moves in from the west Sunday
night, which will allow for any lingering lake effect
precipitation to end. Partly cloudy skies are expected Sunday
night with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
255 PM Update:

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will keep
conditions dry for most of Monday. However, with the next
frontal system approaching the area, clouds will increase during
the afternoon. Cannot rule out some isolated rain showers late
in the day across the Finger Lakes Region, but the majority of
the area will remain dry. Highs are expected to be in the mid
40s to near 50.

The above mentioned system will move through the region Monday
night through Tuesday which will bring mainly rain to the area,
before cold air advection behind the system will bring some lake
enhanced snow showers to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Then the forecast becomes quite uncertain for the
Thursday/Friday timeframe as it is possible a coastal low
pressure system may impact the region. This depends on if two
pieces of upper level energy are able to phase together. If
this occurs too late, then precipitation could miss our region
entirely to the south.

Temperatures are expected to be near-normal through Tuesday
before below normal temperatures move in Wednesday through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

General MVFR ceilings with spotty light rain and snow showers.
Potential for fog formation by 10Z at KITH and KBGM with IFR
restrictions that would lift by 16Z. Also northwest wind gusts
over 20 knots possible today as well at all TAF sites.


Outlook...

Tonight...Continued possible restrictions in rain and snow
showers, especially Central NY.

Sunday...Gradual improvement. VFR probable for AVP with MVFR
expected elsewhere. Mixed rain/snow showers far northern areas.

Monday...Mainly VFR expected. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...Another approaching low pressure system
could bring possible restrictions.

Wednesday...Lake effect snow and rain showers bring possible
restrictions; especially our NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES/KL/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPK/MWG