044
FXUS61 KBGM 021038
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain overhead through the weekend and
much of the upcoming week. Expect fair weather through at least
Tuesday with seasonably warm days and cool nights this weekend
and a gradual warming trend next week. Isolated shower activity
may return by late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 AM Update...

With the polar jet stream in a quasi multi-longwave block over the
high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, high pressure stacked to
700 mb will remain in place through tomorrow. The atmospheric column
is bone dry with CCLs above 10K feet therefore ample sunshine is
expected today and tomorrow along with a clear night. Seasonable
high temperatures are forecast both days with another cool night in
the 40s to mid 50s. With these cool temps, early morning river
valley fog is a good bet each morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 AM Update...

The quasi blocked pattern persists well into the middle of next week
in addition to a retrogression of the Western Atlantic ridge toward
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will continue to suppress
precipitation activity at least through Tuesday. Stagnation of the
high pressure will allow some warming of the column with 850mb temps
reaching around 15C by Tuesday. Daytime temps will easily reach well
into the 80s but dewpoints are expected to remain comfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM Update...

The northern stream begins to open up during this period allowing
for some erosion of the western periphery of the ridge over the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes which will help to nudge the lower
level features slightly to our east. With SW flow returning to the
area, low level moisture will begin to increase through Friday and
Saturday. We still remain under anomalously high heights and a
strong capping inversion with weak dynamical forcing at best. The
NBM starts introducing low PoPs during this time period to account
for model uncertainties associated with the increasing instability
and very weak upper level forcing...but I believe that the prolonged
dry spell will continue for most locations into next weekend. If
anything...some isolated terrain induced showers could develop
during peak heating times late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KELM will slowly break out of the early morning fog and ceiling
restrictions between 13Z-14Z. Similar conditions are expected
to develop again late tonight although the confidence is a
little less it will be another day of drying out the boundary
layer leading to uncertainty in surface based moisture.

Elsewhere...CAVU VFR through the next 24 hours.

Winds increase to around 6 knots during the day from a general
northerly direction with local terrain adjustments and then
become light and variable to near calm after 00Z.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR most locations. Early morning
fog possible most mornings at ELM. Thin wildfire smoke aloft on
Sunday is not expected to affect surface based terminal
operations.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/KL