544
FXUS61 KBGM 071112
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
612 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong gusty winds return this afternoon ahead of rain showers
moving in this evening. Active weather remains through the
weekend into next week with a cold pattern developing early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The surface high and mid level ridge erodes away through the
morning as a shortwave trough and associated surface approaches
with the center of the low over the northern Great Lakes,
tracking to the east. This puts our region in the warm sector
with southwest winds pushing warm air, allowing high
temperatures to increase to the low to mid 50s, which is around
average.

With the approaching low and departing high, the
pressure gradient tightens, developing strong south-
southwesterly winds to start this morning into the evening hours.
Model soundings show a strong LLJ developing under an
inversion, that if mixed well enough, could push gusts up to
40mph down to the surface. This would be most prevalent across
the Finger Lakes and higher elevations south of the Mohawk
Valley. These winds are expected to stay under advisory
criteria, but may have isolated impacts to loose items outdoors.

A line of showers associated with the weak cold front is
expected to move through during the afternoon and into the
overnight hours, with jet stream dynamics helping to drive the
shower development. The overall trough pattern flattens out over
the Great Lakes and north central US after this shortwave moves
through. It does not look like we get a big cold air push
behind these showers as most of the colder air stays to our
north in Canada, but 850mb temps will cool enough to illicit
lake effect showers to develop north of the Southern Tier
heading into Saturday morning. Tonight`s overnight lows will be
in the 40s. A few stray lake effect rain showers for Central NY
will linger through the mid-morning hours of Saturday. High
pressure building to the north and west of the area will try to
limit these showers, but it`s possible for them to stick around
for northern portions of Central NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night will see the system develop the Great Lakes
along a strong baroclinic zone. A shortwave will rotate through
the broad upper level troughing pattern, developing a surface
low over MI/IN that will move to the northeast as the night
progresses. Precipitation will start as stratiform rain, as
temperatures remain around average for most areas, as well as
warm air advection keeping things on the milder side. As
temperatures begin to drop overnight into the upper 20s to low
30s, precipitation will transition into a mix of rain and snow.

The forecast becomes a little more tricky around the Sunday
night into Monday timeframe. Depending on the model, there are
discrepancies between general low placement and progression
speed. This will impact the timing of precipitation transition
more so heading into Monday, which will be discussed in the long
term section.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As mentioned in the short term section, model guidance displays
some discrepancies with the placement and progression of the
late weekend/early week system. The 00Z GFS shows a deeper, more
robust trough with a quicker introduction to cold air into the
area, which would speed up precipitation transition, and develop
lake effect snow showers faster as the system moves east and
westerly flow develops Monday morning. In contrast, the 00Z
ECMWF has a slightly weaker trough and slower progression, which
results in lake effect developing more so in the
afternoon/evening hours. With so much uncertainty, we kept the
NBM solution for now, which reflects the main transition from
mixed rain/snow to snow around Monday afternoon/evening.

Heading into Tuesday, lake effect snow development is expected,
yet much uncertainty remains due to the outcome of the
aforementioned low track and timing. We`ll continue monitoring
model trends for this system.

For the mid-week, we`ll remain active, with a few shortwave
bringing in mixed rain/snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected till around 20-23Z. Ceilings will
gradually form and lower during the afternoon hours with some
showers around by evening. Some slight visibility restrictions
are possible but confidence is higher ceilings fall into the
MVFR range at all TAF sites by the evening. Southerly winds
quickly ramp up after 15Z with peak gusts in the late afternoon.
LLWS is still likely from roughly 14-22Z as well.

Outlook...

Saturday...Lingering ceiling restrictions in a northwest flow
pattern; could improve late in the day.

Sunday...MVFR-IFR restrictions likely in showers.

Monday...MVFR-VFR expected. Chance of rain and snow showers.

Tuesday...MVFR-VFR expected. Chance for snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK/MWG