163
FXUS61 KBGM 251045
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
645 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will moves through the region today, which will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could
be strong to severe. Mainly dry weather is expected on Saturday
before additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After a dry last several days, today will feature a return of
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a broad, low amplitude
trough moves through, with an associated cold front. This will
also bring increasing clouds to the region, which will result in
cooler temperatures compared to yesterday, especially across
most of Central NY. Ahead of the front, temperatures across
parts of the Wyoming Valley-Poconos-Sullivan County, NY will
approach 90 degrees, but heat indices should fall a few degrees
short of heat advisory criteria.

Going into some more specifics about the thunderstorms today,
while the setup is not favorable for widespread severe weather,
there certainly is a possibility for a few isolated
thunderstorms to become strong to severe. 0-6km bulk shear is
expected to be between 30-35kts and potentially over 1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE. However, lapse rates aren`t too favorable (5.0-5.5
C/km). The end result will most likely be just a few/isolated
clusters of stronger thunderstorms and/or marginal supercells.
Parameters look a lot more favorable closer to the coast/east of
our forecast area, which is where there is a Slight Risk in
SPC`s convective outlook. For our region, there is a Marginal
Risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly for areas along and east
of I-81. There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
for those areas with PWATs approaching 2 inches, but the
progressive nature of any thunderstorms that develop, combined
with the dry weather we have had this week, should limit flash
flooding potential.

Following the passage of the cold front, conditions will begin
to dry out tonight with high pressure building back in. Patchy
fog will be possible, especially in the valleys and wherever
rain occurs today. Lows are expected to be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The trough axis that will bring today`s unsettled weather will
move to the east on Saturday, with another ridge building in.
Dry air in place at the surface Saturday will help keep the
humidity down despite temperatures climbing back up into the 80s.

Saturday night into Sunday will feature a return to more active
weather as a MCV moves into the region. However, placement of
this MCV remains highly uncertain and therefore guidance remains
all over the place. If the low can pass into the Great Lakes
and into northern NY, that puts us in the warm sector and
increases our chances of severe thunderstorms, but if the low
can pass through our region or just to the south, then heavy
rain and flash flooding will be the greater concern. Aside from
Sunday`s rainfall, Sunday will feature a return to more humid
conditions with dewpoints rising once again into the mid 60s to
near 70. Temperatures should remain on the cooler side though
(highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s) due to extensive cloud cover
and rain showers/thunderstorms.

Conditions then begin to dry out Sunday night and Monday with
the aforementioned system moving east of the area and high
pressure building back in. With a ridge building in,
temperatures on Monday will be hot again with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s. These temperatures combined with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to lower 70s may result in heat indices in the mid
90s, and therefore heat advisories may need to be issued for
Monday as we get closer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period looks to remain active, especially on
Tuesday as a shortwave embedded within the eastern periphery of
a ridge over the Central U.S. moves through. This setup (also
known as the "ring of fire") can sometimes point to severe
weather, so this will have to be watched.

Once we get towards the middle of next week, the pattern looks
to shift to a cooler one as a longwave trough starts to set in
across the Northeast. This may also result in unsettled weather
with multiple embedded shortwaves potentially moving through.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A few scattered showers are moving across the northern counties
this morning, bringing rain showers to SYR and RME. Ceilings are
expected to fall to MVFR/Fuel Alt at these terminals for a few
hours this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR
should return by noon.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop late this
morning into the afternoon hours at ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP moving from
NW to SE. TEMPO periods of MVFR conditions are currently
forecast, but brief IFR periods cannot be ruled out of a heavy
downpour moves over the terminal. Showers and storms should be
out of the area by 6pm as high pressure builds in for the
overnight hours. Fog should develop in spots tonight as high
pressure builds in and winds become calm. This will be dependent
on rain where rain falls and if it impacts terminals this
afternoon. Right now, ELM has the best chance for IFR
conditions. Was not confident enough to put IFR at ITH or BGM,
but the possibility of IFR popping up in the early morning
hours is not out of the question.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Occasional restrictions
possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, restrictions from scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC