


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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836 FXUS61 KBGM 100645 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 245 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, especially this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong. PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as well. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 245 AM Update... A passing wave across NEPA and the Catskills will continue to move through early this morning. This will keep rain showers going from the Wyoming Valley through the Catskills until around sunrise. Elsewhere, light winds and clear skies will be favorable for fog development, though this too should only last until around sunrise. Today will start out dry but the weather becomes more active later. As an upper trough swings through, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE will be as high as 1500 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear only 30 kts or less. Shear is much higher though when looking at 0-8km layer and instability extends all the way through the hail growth zone, which would be favorable for small to large hail. While some other ingredients like the mid-level lapse rates are lacking, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible today, at least once the cap breaks. Besides large hail being possible, strong gusts will also be of concern as DCAPE values will be 1000+. SPC has pulled the southern extent of the Marginal Risk northward to only include CNY. There are some models that support this with weaker instability and shear across NEPA and the Catskills, though a strong storm cannot be ruled out in those areas. Temperatures will climb into the 80s. Drier air will begin to move in from the west this evening, though some lingering showers and thunderstorms may be present through the late evening hours. Conditions dry out overnight as the drier air spreads over the region. With light winds and skies scattering out, fog will once again be possible. Temperatures will remain quite mild overnight as most locations will be in the 60s. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region Friday. With warm and muggy conditions present, pop up showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during the afternoon hours. Moderate instability is expected though shear will be weaker than today. Despite this, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk across the entire region highlighting the concern for downbursts. Overall, confidence is low that there will be strong storms tomorrow. PoPs were increased in the morning and afternoon above guidance, mainly to cover a wider area. Temperatures trend warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Valley locations will see heat index values exceed 90 but should remain below advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 215 AM Update... An upper level shortwave is expected to pass by to the northwest of the CWA Friday night while a warm front begins to lift northward. GFS and NAM model soundings are pretty dry and most model guidance shows pretty dry air in place in the mid levels, but vary in low- level saturation. NBM loaded in dry but with the two features in the vicinity, isolated showers cannot be ruled out, especially through 06Z Saturday, so some slight chance PoPs were added to the forecast. Lows Friday night will be in the 60s. Saturday will be a very warm and humid day with ridging building in aloft and south-southwesterly flow drawing up plenty of moisture- rich air. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with the heating of the day and diminish in coverage through the evening hours. Highs Saturday range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s and factoring in dew points that will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, apparent temperatures in many of the valleys reach the mid and upper 90s Saturday afternoon. If this holds, heat headlines may be needed over portions of CNY. Staying warm and steamy Saturday night with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 215 AM Update... A cold front will be approaching the area on Sunday with another round of showers and thunderstorms likely, especially Sunday afternoon and night. With a very warm, humid environment still in place, the front will be moving into an area with plenty of instability with MUCAPE modeled to be anywhere from 1500-2500 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates, but shear looks pretty weak at this time, topping out around 20 knots. PWATs generally range from 1.50-2.00 inches with the moisture-rich environment and some guidance hints at a little strengthening of a low-level jet late Sunday into Sunday evening around the Finger Lakes region. So while, we`ll have to monitor trends with regards to any stronger storms, heavy rainfall will be on the table and WPC does have most of the CWA outside of the Poconos and southern Catskills under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. High temperatures on Sunday will be similar to Saturday in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. There is some uncertainty how quickly the front progresses east and with the lagging upper trough moving overhead Monday, there will be a chance of additional showers and storms this day. It won`t be quite as warm with a west to northwest flow taking shape with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures look to rebound quickly though Tuesday and Wednesday with a ridge building in aloft and high pressure moving in at the surface leading to drier conditions. High temperatures by midweek are expected to be back into the mid 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. Fog is currently impacting ITH and will be possible at ELM and RME as well, though confidence is lower at RME. Visibilities will drop into IFR or even LIFR at ITH and ELM while RME should only fall to MVFR. By 12z, fog should clear out as the terminals return to VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Given the scattered coverage, confidence was too low to include at any one terminal. If a shower or storm were to pass over a terminal, then brief restrictions may be possible. Guidance is hinting at fog again tonight/early Friday morning, but this was left out for now as visibilities did not begin to drop until right at the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable over the next 24 hours, though thunderstorms today may have strong gusts. Outlook... Thursday night...Restrictions possible with some lingering showers and thunderstorms around. If a showers and storms hit any terminals, then fog will also be possible overnight. (Medium confidence) Friday into Saturday...Mainly VFR; pop up showers/storms in afternoon and evening possible. (Medium confidence) Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions. (Medium confidence) && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...BTL