733
FXUS61 KBGM 081949
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
249 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is moving into central NY this afternoon bringing
cooler weather and clouds through this evening as it slowly
makes its way towards Northeast PA tonight. Seasonable and dry
weather will continue through the first half of the weekend,
before the next system brings rain showers to the area Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update:

A cold front is slowly dropping south into the NY thruway
corridor this afternoon bringing clouds and a few light rain
showers. As this front drops south this evening, rain showers
will spread south into CNY and the Finger Lakes. Dry air will
make it hard for any showers to make it into the Southern Tier
and southward so chances of precipitation were lowered after 8pm
tonight. Winds this afternoon will likely persist through much
of the overnight as the continued cold air advection behind the
front will keep the low level lapse rates steep and allow mixing
to persist.

Tomorrow, high pressure builds in so as the pressure gradient
slackens through the late morning, winds will slowly calm down.
High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler tomorrow with
skies clearing out. Forecast soundings show very dry air above
the boundary layer so afternoon relative humidities will likely
be lower than modeled so dew points were dropped for the
afternoon and evening. With the winds lessening through the
afternoon, the maximum winds and lowest RH does not look to
align so fire weather concerns are a little lower tomorrow then
today though with dry fuels and low RH, it still will not take
much to get fire to spread if something started.

Tomorrow night is looking colder as the high pressure in place
will allow for efficient radiational cooling at least early in
the night. Upper level ridging is starting to build in with warm
air advection developing as return flow strengthens with the
departing high pressure system. As the temperatures increase
aloft, some increased downward radiation flux may stall the
cooling or even reverse it for the second half of the night into
Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

High pressure over the region will give way to a low pressure system
tracking into the Great Lakes by Sunday night. A fairly decent
influx of moisture should come northward with a warmer airmass as
well. As a result, high temperatures should trend a bit warmer with
mid 50`s on average for Sunday. Timing of the rainfall slightly
slower compared to prior model and ensemble guidance with most of it
falling Sunday evening. This looks to be a more widespread and
slightly more generous rainfall event. However, QPF with the
ensemble guidance is trending slightly lower now. Most locations
struggle to get to 1/4-1/3 inch.  Given the clouds and showers
temperatures Sunday night are likely only to fall into the mid 40`s
on average.

Some wrap around moisture looks to linger through Monday as the low
departs to our northeast. Given the westerly flow, the highest
chances for showers will be near the NY Thruway. A few wind gusts
close to 20 mph are possible as well. The airmass Monday
actually looks to be slightly warmer so a few locations may push
60 for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A secondary cold front looks to come through around Tuesday. While
moisture with the front is limited some Lake effect showers are
possible as the winds shift to northwesterly. Tuesday does look
to cool temperatures a few degrees with lows back down into the
30`s and highs in the mid 40`s to mid 50`s. High pressure then
builds back into the region Wednesday with slightly warmer
temperatures after a chilly start in the morning.

Another system tracks through the Great Lakes and Northeast Thursday
and Friday. This system may form a secondary low along the coast as
well, though that possibility for higher QPF looks a little lower
today. Still, should be enough moisture around for another round of
showers. Temperatures behind the system may allow for a few snow
flakes to mix in as well with the light wrap around/ Lake Effect.
Highs knocked back down to the 40`s given clouds and showers.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front dropping into CNY this afternoon will bring a few
isolated rain showers and some VFR cigs. SYR and RME have a low
chance at brief MVFR cigs as the front moves through if a rain
shower impacts the terminal. Tonight, winds should remain strong
enough to keep mixing high enough at ELM to prevent for
formation. High pressure builds in tonight into tomorrow with
clear skies and VFR conditions at all terminals tonight into
tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Rain showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Mainly VFR; possible lake effect rain
showers in Central NY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty westerly winds (occasional gusts of 20-30 mph), combined
with minimum relative humidity values below 30-40 percent in
some spots may increase the potential for fire spread today,
especially during the afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ044-047-
     048-072.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
FIRE WEATHER...