180
FXUS61 KBGM 060322
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
1122 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunder will occur overnight.
Active weather continues Friday as the associated frontal
boundary stalls with more potential for a few strong to severe
storms. Additional showers and embedded thunder are forecast into
Saturday as well, before the stalled front finally moves again
and exits. This will allow a quieter second half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1115 PM Update...
Severe threat has ended for tonight, though the associated
front will stall. Scattered showers and isolated thunder will
still occur for some locations overnight, with areas of fog
forming especially for where heavy rain fell. A Flash Flood
Warning was issued for South Central to Southeastern Chenango
County into Southern Otsego County, where a stripe of radar-
estimated 1.5-2.5 inches of rain occurred in fairly short order
earlier this evening; perhaps even up to 3.0 inches as a maximum
though there may have been some hail contamination. Rain has
mostly ended there but the Warning remains in effect until 115
AM for any lingering problems.

Previous discussion...
With a slowly strengthening coastal low off of the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight, the front that is moving through our region will
slow and likely stall with showers and thunderstorms continuing
after dark. With the loss of day time heating and the low level
lapse rates trending towards a more stable low level
environment, the threat for severe thunderstorms dwindles with
mainly heavy rain.

Friday will be similar to what occurred today though with more
low level moisture and clouds so low level lapse rates will not
be as steep and there will be more mid level moisture. The
environment is not quite as favorable for microburst but with a
250 mb jet max nosing in with potential for some better shear
near 30 knots across more of the CWA, there is a chance for more
stronger storms again in the afternoon. The surface trough will
remain in place through Friday night so once again, the threat
of showers and thunderstorms persist into the overnight hours
though they will not be severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
150 PM Update

Saturday remains unsettled as a 500 mb shortwave progresses
through the region. With PWATs around 1.5 inches and deep warm
cloud depths, heavy rain is likely with any storms that develop.
How widespread the heavy rain is will be dependent on MCS`s that
develop in the central plains Friday. Some of the CAMs show an
MCS becoming an MCV that brings a large cluster of showers and
thunderstorms through though if the MCV cant form, the surface
trough will slowly progress east with mainly pop up showers and
storms that will be slow movers but more isolated. Shear does
look the best on Saturday with the 500 mb shortwave moving
through with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear so once again,
isolated stronger storms are possible ahead of the trough.

Saturday night into Sunday, the coastal low continues to deepen
as it moves out to sea. Strengthening NW flow will help bring in
some drier air to bring a reprieve to the showers and
thunderstorms briefly. With the 250 mb jet becoming zonal across
the Northeast though at the base of a long wave trough, models
are hinting at another shortwave moving in by Sunday afternoon
with chances of showers an thunderstorms increasing once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
210 PM Update...

The long term remains unsettled with zonal flow at the base of a
long wave through keeping the high frequency of shortwave
troughs leading to shower and thunderstorm chances. Ensemble
probabilities of >1000 J/kg of CAPE and >30 knots of shear
creeps up to around 20% chance each afternoon. Chances of
precipitation were kept for each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday with instability developing each afternoon. While the
severe threat is going to be dependent on the timing of the
shortwave troughs, the heavy rain threat will remain with a
warm, moist environment in place and flow coming out of the Gulf
maintaining access for these shortwaves to higher precipitable
water.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thunderstorms are making their way through the area with storms
moving out of ITH and into BGM and ELM soon. AVP will likely see
some storms later this evening. Storms look to remain south of
SYR and RME with mainly rain showers that could lead to MVFR
conditions at times. Tonight, widespread fog develops tonight
with LIFR conditions likely at AVP and ELM and low chance of IFR
or worse at BGM and RME. ITH and SYR may have enough wind to
keep things mixed.

Tomorrow, cigs likely rise to a mix of MVFR and VFR but showers
and thunderstorms form again in the afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Front in vicinity with waves of low
pressure will cause occasional showers and associated
restrictions. A chance for thunder as well, especially
afternoons.

Sunday...Low pressure moving east with small chance of lingering
showers but improving conditions.

Monday into Tuesday...Potential for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MDP
NEAR TERM...AJG/MDP
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...AJG