836
FXUS61 KBGM 100645
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
245 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today,
especially this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become
strong. PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Friday as well. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer heading
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 AM Update...

A passing wave across NEPA and the Catskills will continue to move
through early this morning. This will keep rain showers going from
the Wyoming Valley through the Catskills until around sunrise.
Elsewhere, light winds and clear skies will be favorable for fog
development, though this too should only last until around sunrise.

Today will start out dry but the weather becomes more active later.
As an upper trough swings through, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE will
be as high as 1500 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear only 30 kts or less.
Shear is much higher though when looking at 0-8km layer and
instability extends all the way through the hail growth zone, which
would be favorable for small to large hail. While some other
ingredients like the mid-level lapse rates are lacking, isolated
strong to severe storms will be possible today, at least once the
cap breaks. Besides large hail being possible, strong gusts will
also be of concern as DCAPE values will be 1000+. SPC has pulled the
southern extent of the Marginal Risk northward to only include CNY.
There are some models that support this with weaker instability and
shear across NEPA and the Catskills, though a strong storm cannot be
ruled out in those areas. Temperatures will climb into the 80s.

Drier air will begin to move in from the west this evening, though
some lingering showers and thunderstorms may be present through the
late evening hours. Conditions dry out overnight as the drier air
spreads over the region. With light winds and skies scattering out,
fog will once again be possible. Temperatures will remain quite mild
overnight as most locations will be in the 60s.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the region Friday. With
warm and muggy conditions present, pop up showers and thunderstorms
will be possible, mainly during the afternoon hours. Moderate
instability is expected though shear will be weaker than today.
Despite this, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk across the entire
region highlighting the concern for downbursts. Overall, confidence
is low that there will be strong storms tomorrow. PoPs were
increased in the morning and afternoon above guidance, mainly to
cover a wider area. Temperatures trend warmer tomorrow with highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Valley locations will see heat index values exceed 90 but should
remain below advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
215 AM Update...

An upper level shortwave is expected to pass by to the
northwest of the CWA Friday night while a warm front begins to
lift northward. GFS and NAM model soundings are pretty dry and
most model guidance shows pretty dry air in place in the mid
levels, but vary in low- level saturation. NBM loaded in dry but
with the two features in the vicinity, isolated showers cannot
be ruled out, especially through 06Z Saturday, so some slight
chance PoPs were added to the forecast. Lows Friday night will
be in the 60s.

Saturday will be a very warm and humid day with ridging
building in aloft and south-southwesterly flow drawing up plenty
of moisture- rich air. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop with the heating of the day and diminish in
coverage through the evening hours. Highs Saturday range from
the mid 80s to the lower 90s and factoring in dew points that
will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, apparent temperatures in
many of the valleys reach the mid and upper 90s Saturday
afternoon. If this holds, heat headlines may be needed over
portions of CNY. Staying warm and steamy Saturday night with
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
215 AM Update...

A cold front will be approaching the area on Sunday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms likely, especially
Sunday afternoon and night. With a very warm, humid environment
still in place, the front will be moving into an area with
plenty of instability with MUCAPE modeled to be anywhere from
1500-2500 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates, but shear looks
pretty weak at this time, topping out around 20 knots. PWATs
generally range from 1.50-2.00 inches with the moisture-rich
environment and some guidance hints at a little strengthening
of a low-level jet late Sunday into Sunday evening around the
Finger Lakes region. So while, we`ll have to monitor trends
with regards to any stronger storms, heavy rainfall will be on
the table and WPC does have most of the CWA outside of the
Poconos and southern Catskills under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. High temperatures on Sunday will be similar
to Saturday in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

There is some uncertainty how quickly the front progresses east
and with the lagging upper trough moving overhead Monday, there
will be a chance of additional showers and storms this day. It
won`t be quite as warm with a west to northwest flow taking
shape with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures look
to rebound quickly though Tuesday and Wednesday with a ridge
building in aloft and high pressure moving in at the surface
leading to drier conditions. High temperatures by midweek are
expected to be back into the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period.
Fog is currently impacting ITH and will be possible at ELM and
RME as well, though confidence is lower at RME. Visibilities
will drop into IFR or even LIFR at ITH and ELM while RME should
only fall to MVFR. By 12z, fog should clear out as the terminals
return to VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop this afternoon. Given the scattered coverage, confidence
was too low to include at any one terminal. If a shower or
storm were to pass over a terminal, then brief restrictions may
be possible. Guidance is hinting at fog again tonight/early
Friday morning, but this was left out for now as visibilities
did not begin to drop until right at the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be light and variable over the next 24 hours, though
thunderstorms today may have strong gusts.


Outlook...

Thursday night...Restrictions possible with some lingering showers
and thunderstorms around. If a showers and storms hit any
terminals, then fog will also be possible overnight. (Medium
confidence)

Friday into Saturday...Mainly VFR; pop up showers/storms in
afternoon and evening possible. (Medium confidence)

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions. (Medium confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL