042
FXUS61 KBGM 220830
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
330 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several weak frontal disturbances will keep our weather
unsettled through the weekend, with chances for rain and wet snow
showers at times. There will be plenty of clouds around this
weekend, with near average temperatures. High pressure returns,
bringing seasonably mild weather and more sunshine for Monday. The
next weather system arrives later on Tuesday into Wednesday bringing
periods of rain and warmer temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak wave of low pressure is passing by to our south across the
Mid-Atlantic early this morning. This will spread a period of
steady, light to moderate rain across NE PA and the NY Southern
Tier through daybreak; perhaps lingering until mid-morning in NE
PA. Rainfall amounts will be up to a quarter inch in NE PA, fading
to less than a tenth of an inch for the southern tier...and none
further north in Central NY. After this wave of low pressure
and rain shield moves away, our area will be under a modest cold
air advection, NW flow regime the rest of today. 850mb temperatures
fall to -5C this afternoon...which will allow lake effect/upslope
stratus clouds to lingering much of the day; there could be a
few occasional breaks in the overcast...and some partial clearing
is expected by mid to late afternoon for the Wyoming Valley
region of NE PA. Cooler with highs in the 40s areawide today.
Tonight features partly cloudy skies, becoming mostly cloudy
late; otherwise dry and seasonably chilly with lows down into
the 20s.

The clipper system is trending a bit stronger and further south for
Sunday. This will mean mainly cloudy skies along with scattered snow
and rain showers in the morning, with PoPs increasing to likely by
the afternoon and early evening across Central NY. With 850mb
temperatures aloft warming to around -2 or -3C during the day,
surface temperatures should rise into the 40s for daytime highs.
These mild temperatures should prevent any snow accumulation during
the daytime hours. With that said there is a slight chance for a
light dusting or coating of snow before about 9/10 AM if the snow
shower activity arrives fast enough, as surface temperatures will
still be near or below freezing until this time. Precipitation
amounts are forecast to be light; less than a tenth of an inch on
Sunday. Slightly breezy southwest winds turn west-northwest
late in the day, between 8-15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the cold front winds shift northwesterly and 850mb temps fall
to around -6 to -8C Sunday night. This will be just cold enough to
start up a minor lake effect response off of Lake Ontario and
perhaps the Finger Lakes. Have high chance to likely PoPs for the
first half of the overnight period, fading to chance or slight
chance late at night into early Monday morning as high pressure
approaches. Once again, precipitation amounts are expected to be
rather light; under a tenth of an inch. The rain showers eventually
mix over to mostly lingering snow showers as it cools down into the
upper 20s to mid-30s overnight. High pressure moves over the region
of Monday, bringing decreasing clouds and seasonable temperatures.
It looks to stay dry Monday night with increasing mid and high level
clouds ahead of the next, incoming weather system. Tuesday morning
could end up dry, before rain moves in later in the day. Seasonable
temperatures continue with highs in the 40s. Periods of rain/showers
lingering Tuesday night...with very mild overnight low temperatures
holding in the upper 30s to mid-40s out there.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This period starts off rather warm on Wednesday, with a deep
southwesterly flow and warm air advection over the forecast area. It
will still be mainly cloudy with chances for showers as the cold
front approaches from the west later in the day or overnight.
Thanksgiving Day is trending colder, with 850mb temperatures
potentially hovering around -8C through the day. Expect mostly
cloudy and breezy conditions on Thanksgiving with a chance for lake
effect snow or lower elevation rain showers. Westerly winds gusts up
to around 25 mph and daytime highs only reach the upper 30s to mid-
40s. Cold air advection continues to strengthen over the area Friday
into Saturday with 850mb temps hovering between about -10C to -12C
in this timeframe. There is high chance to low end likely PoPs for
lake effect snow showers over the area. Exact details such as lake
effect orientation, amounts and extent remain uncertain this far out
in time. Otherwise it will be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and
seasonably cold out there for the end of the upcoming workweek and
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers are moving in from the west tonight, which will bring a
smattering of IFR and MVFR restrictions.

AVP should start seeing rain fall in the next hour or so and
with that, current MVFR restrictions should periodically fall to
IFR for the first few hours of rain and then lock into IFR
conditions once the lower atmosphere becomes fully saturated.
IFR restrictions are expected to last into the mid morning
hours. Rain should move out of the area then with MVFR ceilings
returning into the afternoon, followed by VFR by the evening.

RME is a tricky forecast tonight as it is currently foggy there
with IFR visby but no model guidance has shown this outside of
the NAM/NAMNest runs. While these models tend to over produce
IFR restrictions, it rained at the terminal earlier this
evening for about an hour, which provided enough moisture to
bring MVFR visby to the area for the past few hours which these
models had. Visby has dropped to 1-2 miles over the past 30
minutes (which these models had as well) and given not much is
expected to change tonight with cloud cover remaining the same
and temps and dewpoints sticking close to each other,
confidence was high enough to keep IFR visby at RME through the
overnight hours(which the NAM/NAMNest also has). Usually I do
not like to rely on one model but RME is a hard terminal for
forecast for as guidance does not pick up on fog very well in
this area and we have missed it multiple times over the past few
months. IFR should lift by mid-morning with VFR conditions
remaining through the day.

ELM/BGM/ITH/SYR should see MVFR ceilings tonight, lifting to VFR
by the afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Scattered rain/snow showers and associated
restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Chance for rain showers and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC