972
FXUS61 KBGM 240000
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
700 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered lake effect rain and snow showers are expected through
Sunday, mainly across Central New York. A cold front and low
pressure system will move through the region Tuesday and bring
additional showers to the area. A storm system will bring a
chance of rain and snow to the area on Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM update...

Overall little change to the previous forecast, cloud coverage
was increased tonight into tomorrow with the lake effect
precipitation across CNY.

320 PM Update:

A west-northwest flow behind the departing storm system is
bringing scattered lake effect rain showers to the area this
afternoon, mainly across central NY. This pattern will continue
through Sunday, but with marginal temperatures, snow showers
will likely not mix in until tonight/early Sunday morning. In
fact, some lake plain areas along the NY Thruway corridor may
remain warm enough for precipitation to remain entirely rain
showers. Either way, even areas that do see snow showers
overnight tonight will likely not see much accumulation, perhaps
up to a few tenths of an inch or so across some of the higher
upslope areas of Central NY. Lows tonight are expected to mainly
be in the 30s.

A continued west-northwest flow will result in additional
scattered lake effect rain and snow showers on Sunday, mainly
for the areas along and surrounding the NY Thruway corridor.
Those areas are expected to remain mostly cloudy all day, but
areas to the south (Twin Tiers southward into Northeast PA) will
likely see partial clearing by the afternoon with high pressure
starting to move in. Highs are expected to mainly be in the 40s.

High pressure will move into the area Sunday night, which will
allow for any lingering lake effect showers to end and skies to
at least partially clear. Lows are expected to be in the mid 20s
to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
340 PM Update

This period starts off quiet and dry with increasing clouds for
Monday. The next weather system brings a frontal boundary with
periods of rain through the area Monday evening, Monday night and
Tuesday morning. Precipitation type looks to be all rain areawide
with highs 45-55 Monday, lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s Monday
night and temperatures hold well into the 40s and low 50s Tuesday
morning. A fairly strong cold front moves through midday Tuesday,
with temperatures dropping aloft to -4C at 850mb late in the day.
This could allow any left over, or lake effect showers to mix with
wet snow flakes over the higher terrain.

It turns much colder Tuesday night, with 850mb temperatures reaching
around -7C, and this will get the lake effect machine going. The
flow looks generally westerly behind the front, with the steadiest
lake effect precipitation looking to setup along north of I-90
overnight...precip type should be mainly snow as lows dip into the
upper 20s to lower 30s areawide. A few inches of lake effect snow
accumulation is possible; mainly for northern Oneida county based on
the current model data. Northeast PA looks mainly dry for Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night under partly cloudy skies. West winds
are breezy behind the front, between 8-15 mph with a few higher gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
340 PM Update

A potentially active, more wintry weather pattern setting up for the
extended forecast period. Wednesday features near to below average
temperatures, with highs in the mid-30s to lower 40s expected. Lake
effect snow showers continue over northern portions of Central NY,
especially for the I-90 corridor and points north in the westerly
flow regime. The lake effect briefly shuts down or shifts north out
ahead of the next weather system.

High pressure slides off the Mid-Atlantic coast as the next low
pressure system takes shape across the Tennessee Valley region.
The latest guidance has sped up the onset of precipitation
(snow) with this low for our area. The 12z GFS, ECMWF and CMC
have snow developing either after midnight Wednesday night or by
Thursday morning. There remain differences in the track and
strength of the low on Thanksgiving day. The 12z ECMWF now cuts
the primary low up toward Lake Erie, before a secondary low
develop and takes over in Southern New England Thursday night.
This scenario would bring a messy mix of snow, wintry mix and
rain to our region. Meanwhile the 12z GFS is flatter with the
upper level trough and thus keeps the surface low to our south
and the cold air firmly in place for snow over most of the
forecast area. The 12z CMC is in between the ECMWF and GFS,
being more amplified than the GFS, but less than the ECMWF...it
brings a 990mb low over NYC by Thursday evening and snow to
wintry mix and some rain over our eastern zones. The 13z NBM has
20-40% chance for 3 inches or more of snow over NE PA in this
24 hour period, with 30-45% chance across CNY. QPF is trending
up now with this system, the 13z NBM mean shows 0.25 to 0.50
inches over the region, but the more amplified ECM cluster shows
0.50 to 0.80 inches of precipitation. Overall, a good deal of
uncertainty remains with this system and the forecast during
this timeframe. Did mention the potential for a messy system in
the HWO considering the possible impact to the Thanksgiving
Holiday/travel.

Behind this system confidence is high that a much colder, wintry air
mass will settle in over the weekend. This will bring plenty of snow
shower and a possible prolonged lake effect snow event. Details
remain uncertain this far out in time. 850mb temperatures drop
between -8C and -15C late week and into next weekend, with the
probability for sub 528dm 500mb heights increasing to around 75%
over the northern half of the CWA on the Grand Ensemble model
cluster. This will mean highs in the 30s Friday and even upper 20s
to mid-30s by Saturday. Overnight lows well down into the 20s and
even some upper 10s possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gusty WNW winds will continue overnight, with lake effect
clouds and spotty showers continuing, particularly in north-
central NY. Ceilings will gradually rise before midnight local
time, with MVFR becoming more common in higher terrain. In the
meantime, fuel alt conditions will be most prevalent, with brief
IFR possible at SYR in heavier showers, and at BGM due to
terrain.

Lake effect rain bands will become more organized Sunday
morning, but may thread the needle between terminals, with the
most prevalent band likely setting up just south of SYR and
north of ITH. As a result, MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail
Sunday.

For AVP...`AMD NOT SKED` due to equipment outage, but ceilings
are likely to vary between MVFR and VFR, between 3000 and 4000
feet through the period with no visby restrictions expected as
precip will stay to the north.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...Becoming mainly VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible
in rain showers, with snow showers mixing in late Tuesday.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Lake effect snow and rain
showers may bring occasional restrictions to the Central NY
terminals.

Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG/MPH