467
FXUS61 KBGM 081802
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
102 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move in from the north today, which will
result in some scattered showers for Central NY. Otherwise, it
will be partly to mostly sunny today, along with gusty winds in
the afternoon. Seasonable and dry weather will continue through
the first half of the weekend, before the next system brings
rain showers to the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
640 AM Update:

Made some minor tweaks to the hourly temperatures for the early
morning hours to reflect latest observations, but otherwise the
forecast remains on track.

350 AM Update:

A shortwave and trailing cold front will drop down into Central
NY today, which may result in a few light rain showers. That
being said, this shortwave will be rather moisture-starved, so
as we have seen happen a lot recently during this dry stretch of
weather, not expecting much QPF from this. Farther to the south
(Twin Tiers southward), dry conditions are expected today with
partly sunny to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be a bit
above normal with highs expected to be in the mid 50s to mid
60s.

With afternoon mixing and a tightening pressure gradient, winds
will become quite gusty this afternoon with occasional gusts of
25-30 mph possible at times. This combined with low relative
humidity and dry fuels may increase the risk for wildfire
spread, especially for Northeast PA to the Catskills. A Special
Weather Statement for fire weather has been re-issued for today
for those areas after coordinating with surrounding offices.

With high pressure moving in tonight, the pressure gradient will
ease and therefore winds will be diminishing this evening. Some
lake effect clouds and perhaps a few light showers will be
possible in the evening for Central NY, but otherwise mostly
clear skies are expected tonight. Lows are expected to be in the
mid 20s to mid 30s.

High pressure will bring plenty of sunshine to the area on
Saturday. With a cooler airmass in place, temperatures will be
closer to normal for this time of the year with highs expected
to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. In fact, this would actually
be a few degrees below normal (normal high temperatures for
today are in the upper 40s to mid 50s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With upper level ridging aloft and surface high pressure
centered over the region, Saturday night looks to be on the
chilly side, with Sunday morning lows dropping into the 20s
across most of the area outside the Wyoming Valley and right
along the Finger Lakes shores.

Sunday will start off dry, but with increasing cloud cover from
west to east as south to southwest flow aloft begins
transporting moisture into the region. An upper low will move
into the Great Lakes on Sunday, as a lead shortwave trough
breaks down the ridge and provides some support for rain showers
west of I-81 late in the afternoon or early in the evening.
Given the strength of the ridge, and the need to moisten up a
rather dry airmass, the later onset of rain showers seems the
way to go, though the GFS still tries to produce showers about 6
hours earlier.

The steadiest rainfall will push through Sunday night, with
lingering showers on Monday mainly focused over north-central
NY. A secondary weak shortwave trough and associated cold front
could bring a few more spotty showers to the area Monday night.
Precip type looks to stay all rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow off Lake Ontario will likely keep clouds in place
a little longer than what most model guidance suggests, though
winds will shift to northerly and diminish in the afternoon and
evening, allowing for some clearing Tuesday night.

High pressure and dry conditions look to persist into Wednesday,
with another trough and associated cold front looking to sweep
through late Wednesday into Thursday with another round of
much-needed rain showers.

Temperatures look to start out near to slightly above normal
Tuesday, but will likely trend cooler beyond Thursday in the
wake of the aforementioned system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front dropping into CNY this afternoon will bring a few
isolated rain showers and some VFR cigs. SYR and RME have a low
chance at brief MVFR cigs as the front moves through if a rain
shower impacts the terminal. Tonight, winds should remain strong
enough to keep mixing high enough at ELM to prevent for
formation. High pressure builds in tonight into tomorrow with
clear skies and VFR conditions at all terminals tonight into
tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Rain showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Mainly VFR; possible lake effect rain
showers in Central NY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty westerly winds (occasional gusts of 20-30 mph), combined
with minimum relative humidity values below 30-40 percent in
some spots may increase the potential for fire spread today,
especially during the afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ044-047-
     048-072.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...AJG
FIRE WEATHER...