078
FXUS61 KBGM 031426
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1026 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning much warmer today with highs rising into the 70s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around mainly in
the morning. Generally dry and seasonable weather returns on
Friday, before another slow moving frontal system arrives with
periods of rain expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

1025 PM Update...

Took out thunderstorm chances across Central NY for today. Very
little if any instability and at this time it looks like just
some scattered showers will be possible as the warm front pushes
through. Later tonight, shower chances will be highest across NE
PA and also instability will be maximized across the Poconos
Region, so potential for any embedded thunderstorms will be
across our far southern forecast area.

635 AM Update...

PoPs were raised in the near term for areas east of I-81 in CNY
to cover for the initial line of convection that raced across
the CWA early this morning. A slight chance of thunder was
expanded a bit more across NE PA with lightning that was
observed over Central PA moving into the region. CONSshort was
blended into the forecast to lower winds a bit, especially
around the Finger Lakes as observations have trended lower
fairly quickly after the expiration of the wind advisory.


445 AM Update...

An upper level shortwave moving along the northern periphery of
a strong ridge of high pressure building off the Southeast
Coast will be moving across the area from southwest to northeast
this morning. This feature along with a very strong low level
jet with winds at 850mb anywhere from 60-80kts will be fueling
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms this morning. The
leading band of scattered thunderstorms that has developed over
the past couple of hours is racing across west-central NY with
plenty of lightning and brief heavy downpours and is nearing the
I-81 corridor. Gusty winds, especially around the Finger Lakes
region will also persist early this morning and the showers and
thunderstorms can help to mix down some of those strong winds
aloft, so a wind advisory remains in effect through 6 AM EDT
for gusts of up to 50 mph. For those closer to the Poconos and
southern Catskills, a southeasterly flow in place overnight is
advecting inland a marine layer with low clouds and areas of
fog, so this will be something to keep an out for while
traveling this morning through about 9-10 AM.

Most of this morning`s showers and thunderstorms are expected
to move east out of the area by about 15-16Z. This afternoon
will feature some breaks of sun, but there will still be
isolated to scattered showers that pop up along and ahead of a
surface cold front that will be moving across the CWA during the
mid to late afternoon. Soundings do show some modest elevated
instability during the afternoon with plenty of shear, so again
some thunder cannot be ruled out. With strong WAA, it will be a
much warmer day across the region with highs from the upper 60s
to the low and mid 70s. Dew points rise in the upper 50s and
lower 60s later this morning and into the afternoon, so it may
feel a bit humid as well.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy tonight. The cold front
starts to slow down exiting the area and may get hung up across
or just south of NE PA. A weak wave of low pressure is expected
to move along the boundary and this will lead to a chance of
showers from the Twin Tiers south. While there is some
uncertainty in the placement of the boundary, some guidance
suggests that the best chance for showers may be from around
I-84 on south in NE PA. Lows tonight will range from the upper
30s to the upper 40s.

Surface high pressure over the Upper Midwest will move east
over the area Friday, which will shunt the shower activity to
our south and lead to a largely dry day. Skies are expected to
be partly to mostly sunny across CNY while clouds to start
across NE PA, and perhaps a couple of lingering showers, will
give way to some afternoon sunshine. While it won`t be as warm
as Thursday, high temperatures Friday will still be near or
above average ranging from the lower to mid 50s across CNY and
from the mid 50s to the lower 60s from the Southern Tier on
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
435 AM Update

Active, wet and unsettled period expected over the weekend. First
round of rain arrives Friday night and continues most of the day on
Saturday. This will be associated with a wave of low pressure that
tracks across the northern Ohio Valley Friday night, then near Lake
Ontario on Saturday. The steadiest rain and highest rainfall totals
are expected to be across Central NY with this system. Current
forecasts indicated between a quarter to half inch of rain across NE
PA, with a half to one inch expected across Central NY. There could
be a bit of a break in the steady rain Saturday afternoon, but there
will likely still be showers around, and even a slight chance for a
thunderstorm as the warm front/sector will be nearby across Central
PA and western NY. It will be seasonable with lows 35-45 and highs
mainly in the 50s Saturday afternoon.

The next wave of low pressure rides northeast along the stalled
frontal boundary Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring another
period of rain to the region, with showers lingering much of the day
on Sunday. This round of rain looks to bring another quarter to
three-quarters of an inch of rain to the area. There will again be
slight chances for thunderstorms with some minor instability
present. NE PA may break into the warm sector out ahead of the low
pressure wave, with highs potentially reaching well into the 60s
here...it will be cooler for CNY, in the upper 40s to upper 50s. The
first cold front slowly presses southeast and through the area
Sunday night, with any lingering showers starting to mix with snow
as overnight lows drop into the low to mid-30s. Total rainfall over
the weekend is progged to range from around half an inch in the
Wyoming Valley, up to 1.50 inches for our north/west counties;
Steuben northeast to Onondaga and Oneida counties. WPC does have
this area (and most of CNY) under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall, so this will be something to monitor in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
440 AM Update

Much colder, showery and winter like weather pattern expected for
much of this longer term period.

Monday will start off will a short break in the shower activity as a
weak 1015mb surface high moves over the area. Temperatures aloft
cool to -5 to -8C through the day so highs will be cooler...only in
the mid-40s to lower 50s. There is a slight chance for a few
showers, but it is trending mainly dry with partly cloudy skies  and
steady northwest winds 8-15 mph.

A compact, potent low pressure system and associated cold front is
forecast to quickly move into the area Monday night and early
Tuesday. This front will have very cold air behind it, with 850mb
temperatures falling to around -13C by  Tuesday. Snow showers are
likely along and behind the front as a closed 700/500mb low rotates
over the region. Snow squalls and convective snow showers are also
possible late Monday night and Tuesday as 0-2km low level lapse
rates reach 9.5 to 10C/km, MUCAPE reaches 200 J/kg and 925mb
temperatures fall to -8C by Tuesday evening. This will combine
with plenty of moisture in the low levels and 30-40kt winds in
the lowest 500 meter layer to induce snow squall parameters of
4-8 over the region. This will be something to watch closely and
any impacts will depend on surface temperatures. It will
certainly feel a lot more like winter on Tuesday, with NW winds
gusting up to 35 mph and daytime highs in the 30s for most
locations.

Behind this system a cold, moist northwest flow pattern
continues on the back side of the slow moving upper level
low/trough Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will keep snow
showers (even some lake effect) in the forecast as 850mb
temperatures bottom out around -16C Wednesday morning. This
should be enough of a lake to 850mb differential to allow for a
sold stream of lake effect snow showers into the region. Tuesday
night is likely the coldest night with lows 20-25F for most
locations. Highs will be lucky to reach into the 40s Wednesday
afternoon with the cold air aloft still in place.

The area finally dries out Wednesday night and Thursday as high
pressure moves overhead. After a chilly start in the morning
temperatures are forecast to rebound well into the 50s and lower 60s
by Thursday afternoon under partly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Varying conditions will be in place across the region over the
next several hours as showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
move from west to east. Ceilings are expected to be primarily
MVFR/fuel-alt. Visibilities may dip briefly to MVFR in the
heaviest showers. Showers are expected to taper off by about
15-16Z and this is around the same time that the south-
southwesterly LLWS is expected to ease as well.

Ceilings are expected to improve back to VFR for most of the
terminals this afternoon with pop up showers and perhaps another
thunderstorm around, but confidence was too low to include at
any terminal. Winds will be becoming west to northwesterly later
this afternoon and evening in the wake of a cold front.
Depending on where the front hangs up across PA, there can be
some showers around AVP tonight and some restrictions can`t be
ruled out.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Periods of rain likely with
associated restriction.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Restrictions from snow showers possible
(Medium Confidence).

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DK