901
FXUS61 KBGM 040540
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
140 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be slow to depart, with sunshine yielding a
very warm day. Haze will also be thinner, allowing plenty of
sunshine through to boost temperatures. A frontal boundary will
then drift over the area Thursday through Saturday, with showery
waves of low pressure, and perhaps thunder at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
140 AM Update...
Today will feature the warmest temperatures so far this year,
as southwesterly return flow occurs on the back side of
departing high pressure.

Looking at the HRRR smoke model, some vertically-integrated
smoke is depicted but not nearly as thick as yesterday. Thus
sunshine should have no problem fully realizing projected warm
temperatures. That said, an inversion at the top of the boundary
layer due to thermal capping aloft, will provide a focus point
for a fair-weather cumulus deck during mixing hours; few to
scattered. However, a very weak shortwave is evident on water
vapor imagery, which will attempt to ride over the ridge. While
chances are very small, a few attempts at convective cells could
yield brief very spotty afternoon showers for a few locations
within the Twin Tiers to Finger Lakes areas. Convection-Allowing
Models (CAMS) have started to catch on to this, and with the
shortwave evident on satellite as well, it was enough to add
mention for a slight chance of a shower for those locations.
Vast majority of time and area though will simply have a dry and
very warm day. Cumulus towers though should remain squatty and
warm enough to rule out any lightning.

Strengthening warm air advection tonight, along with increasing
cloud cover in the pre-dawn hours Thursay, will hold overnight
lows to warm values generally in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
210 PM Update...

Main concern this period is the potential of a few strong
thunderstorms in the area Thursday afternoon-evening.

Trends in models have continued to slow the front with the
timing trending to the afternoon and evening hours. Shear has
trended down with ensemble means down to around 20 knots vs the
25 to 30 the last few days. Forecast soundings have a good
amount of mid level dry air as well as steep low level lapse
rates so while organized convection is less likely, microburst
are still possible with any storm that forms.

The front slows and stalls Thursday night into Friday with
chances of precipitation kept through the overnight hours.
Forecast soundings do show some elevated instability and with
some weak mid level convergence, a few storms could continue to
develop after dark.

Friday into Friday night, the stalled front transitions to a
warm front and with showers and thunderstorms along and north
of the front. A developing low off of the Carolina coast will
need to be watched. If it can develop and take on tropical
characteristics, it may help advect deeper tropical moisture
into the warm front. This could lead to high rainfall rates in
storms along the warm front with potential for slow movement
and training.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM Update...

There is still a lot of uncertainty to start the long term as it
will depend on how the potential tropical low off of the
Carolinas and how it impacts the through moving through this
weekend. Heavy rain is a threat with deeper tropical moisture
advecting north associated with the low off of the Carolinas.
The speed of the trough will also be impacted as a stronger low
may slow the trough leading to longer residence time and
increased risk of slow moving storms with heavy rain. Trends in
the GFS and ECMWF have been towards a more inland track which
helps keep the trough more progressive but we will have to see
if this trend continues.

The rest of the long term will remain somewhat unsettled as we
get into a more zonal flow pattern with the jet stream in close
proximity. This will open the door to frequent chances of
shortwaves that would trigger showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry high pressure is starting to nudge coastward yet is still
in charge with VFR conditions through this TAF period.
Increasing southwesterly flow on the back side of the departing
high, just of the surface, is posing marginal low level wind
shear conditions for the NY terminals prior to 12Z this morning.
However, that will go away around or shortly after dawn, and
winds will still be fairly light at the surface with peak gusts
staying under 15 knots during mixing hours.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...Front in vicinity with waves of low
pressure will cause occasional showers and associated
restrictions. A chance for thunder as well, especially
afternoons. Best thunder chances will be Thursday for NY
terminals and Friday for KAVP.

Sunday...Low pressure moving east with small chance of lingering
showers but improving conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The forecast high at Binghamton is forecasted to be 85 degrees
on Wednesday 6/4. This is right around the record of 84 set
back in 1951. Both Syracuse and Scranton forecast highs, of 90
and 88 respectively, are expected to be well under their records.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
CLIMATE...