548
FXUS61 KBGM 042342
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates and continues the dry weather pattern with
above normal temperatures across the region through Monday. A
passing cold front will bring a batch of rain and possibly a
thunderstorm late Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by much
cooler and dry weather through at least Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
An expansive upper level ridge of high pressure remains firmly in
place over the entire area through the weekend. This will bring
mainly sunny/clear skies through the near term. Just a few high
level cirrus from time to time and some patchy early morning valley
fog around. There will be rather large diurnal swings in
temperatures, with well above average readings in the afternoon and
evening. Expect daytime highs between 80 to 85 degrees across the
forecast area Sunday afternoon, which is close to 20 degrees above
average for early October. Overnight lows dip down into the mid-40s
to 50s over the area, which is still 5 to 10 degrees above average.
Winds will be light, under 10 mph and turning southerly on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control of our weather on Monday, with a
warm southwest flow persisting. This will bring mostly sunny skies
and near record high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s over
the region. Quiet and very warm weather continues Monday night, as a
southerly breezy keeps overnight lows elevated in the 50s to
lower 60s.

The weather on Tuesday will depend on the exact timing of a
slow moving frontal boundary and possible wave of low pressure along
it. There remain differences in timing, low/front placement in the
deterministic model guidance at this time. Therefore, the official
forecast is leaning on the NBM ensemble guidance for this system.
Current indications are that the front slowly moves into the area
from NW to SE Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing increasing
clouds and eventually a steady period of rain and possibly embedded
thunderstorms. This rain and a slight chance for thunderstorms looks
to lingering into Tuesday night and even potentially early Wednesday
morning. There should be fairly efficient rainfall accumulation with
this front as pwats rise to around 1.4 inches. Instability is
minimal, but could be upwards of a few hundred Joules Tuesday
afternoon and evening...especially west of I-81. It is still a
little early to pin down exact rainfall amounts, but probabilities
are pretty high for more than a half inch across the forecast area,
with even a chance for localized 1"+ amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The aforementioned front and low pressure system will be sliding
east-southeast and out of the area Wednesday morning. There could
very well still be lingering clouds and a few showers in the morning
though, depending on exact timing and location. Current indications
are that high pressure starts to build in, with decreasing clouds
and more sunshine by the afternoon hours. Breezy northwest winds 8-
15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph will bring in much cooler air...as
850mb temperatures fall back to around +4C late in the day. This
will make for much cooler day time highs; only in the upper 50s to
mid-60s over the area. As a strong high pressure settles over the
area Wednesday night temperatures are expected to cool rapidly due
to radiational cooling. Overnight lows are forecast to reach down
into the upper 20s and 30s with areas of frost or even localized
freeze expected. High pressure remains centered over the region on
Thursday, with sunny skies and seasonably mild temperatures.
Additional frost is again possible Thursday night.

Friday is likely to remain dry, but with some increasing clouds
out ahead of the next weak weather system. By next Saturday, a
weak frontal passage will bring the next chance for a few
showers to the area. Seasonable temperatures continue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain in place across the region through
this period, supporting VFR conditions at all terminals except
ELM tonight. At ELM fog will once again result in LIFR to VLIFR
visibility restrictions, developing after 06Z and lifting
around 12Z.

Outlook...

Through Monday night...VFR, except typical patchy valley fog
and associated restrictions possible at KELM late night-predawn
morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Potential for restrictions in rain and
clouds as a cold front pushes through the region.

Thursday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM/MDP
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...ES