006
FXUS61 KBGM 060017
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
717 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move into the area tonight, bringing
a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to the area into the
afternoon hours. Lake effect snow showers will develop Thursday
night into Friday from the Mohawk Valley northward. Another
storm system will impact the region Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

Some Finger Lake effect snow showers and flurries continue to
linger across Cayuga and Cortland county. These should dissipate
as high pressure builds in from the west. This high will bring a
quick period of quiet weather as it quickly moves across the
region from west to east. This ridge will help lock in cold
temps at the surface, with lows tonight ranging from the single
digits across northern Oneida county to low 20s in NEPA.

The next weather system will arrive tonight as a warm front
moves into the region from the SW. WAA snow is expected to
develop across the Twin Tiers after midnight, spreading to the
NE as the night progresses. A warm nose from 850mb to 700mb will
poke into the region, changing precip from all snow to a
snow/sleet mix which will also propagate to the NE. This should
last for a few hours before we get enough of the warm nose to
move in that freezing rain will also develop from mid morning
into the afternoon hours. The tricky part with this system is
model soundings are showing dry air working its way into the mid
levels of the atmosphere, which would reduce cloud ice available
and change the freezing rain and sleet to freezing drizzle. Some
guidance is showing enough cloud ice to keep light freezing rain
going for a few hours but confidence in this is not high.
Whether it is heavier rain or lighter drizzle, QPF amount`s
look to be on the lower end, with the higher amounts missing us
to the south. This will keep our ice accumulations low, with a
trace to 0.10 inches expected across the region. Higher
elevations should see more icing as the cold air will remain in
the lower elevations. This should bring more sleet in the
valleys and freezing rain/drizzle higher up. Temps will warm in
the afternoon to the mid 30s to low 40s across the western
Finger Lakes, which will allow most to see precip become all
rain/drizzle. Winds are also going to be strong with this
system, especially across higher elevations in PA and the Finger
Lakes. Sustained winds of 10-20mph with gusts of 25-40mph can
be expected during the morning and into the late afternoon
hours.

Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect across the entire
area.

The synoptic system and associated precipitation will depart the
region by the evening. Behind it, winds will become westerly,
which will kick off lake effect snow showers across the Mohawk
Valley and to the north. Up to 2 inches of snow is forecast to
fall in this region, with higher numbers across northern Oneida
county. Temps Friday night will fall into the upper teens to low
20s across NY, with mid 20s in NEPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
355 PM Update:

A weak shortwave passing through the area on Friday will allow
winds to shift to a more west-northwesterly direction and
therefore the lake effect snow showers will drift to the south
through the Mohawk Valley and towards the NY Thruway corridor.
However, winds will not be uni-directional, so lake effect snow
showers may become more cellular, especially in the afternoon
during peak heating. Elsewhere, partly to mostly sunny skies are
expected on Friday with highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

The lake effect snow showers drift back north Friday night into
Saturday as upper level ridging builds in ahead of the next
system. Weakening boundary layer winds will also shrink the
inland extend of the band with its northward progression with
the heavier snowfall closer to Lake Ontario. Otherwise, partly
to mostly cloudy skies are expected Friday night with lows
mainly in the teens.

Aside from some lingering light lake effect snow showers north
of the NY Thruway corridor, most of Saturday will be
precipitation-free. However, the next area of low pressure will
be approaching the area and as a result, cannot rule out a few
light snow showers west of I-81 late in the day. That being
said, the bulk (or possibly all) of the precipitation is
expected to hold off until Saturday night.

A quick moving low pressure system will impact the region
beginning Saturday night. Latest model guidance trends develops
a secondary coastal low pressure system as the initial primary
low transfers its energy to the coastal low. This will allow
colder air to wrap into the system and therefore trends continue
to be for a snowier solution and less of a wintry mix. That
being said, a warm nose aloft still could make it at least into
Northeast PA and possibly as far north as the Southern Tier of
NY, which would allow for the snow to mix with sleet and
possibly freezing rain (sleet more likely than freezing rain at
this point). This will continue to be monitored, but parts of
Central NY that remain mostly (or all) snow could see several
inches of snow in a relatively short period of time Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
355 PM Update:

On Sunday, the above mentioned low pressure system will be
quickly exiting the area with just some wrap-around snow
showers, especially in Central NY due to lake enhancement.
Elsewhere, precipitation will gradually end, especially in
Northeast PA. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly
below normal with highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Cold air advection will bring some additional lake effect snow
showers for parts of Central NY on Monday, but otherwise high
pressure moving in should keep most of the area precipitation-
free. The forecast for Tuesday onwards next week is a bit
uncertain as it is possible another storm system could impact
the region. Latest trends are to keep this system more to the
south, but flip-flopping within the guidance is typical this far
out, so the mid-week period still will be watched closely.
Otherwise, it will continue to be on the colder side with highs
in the 20s to near 30.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

715 PM Update

Mostly VFR through the evening hours except for ITH, where some
lake effect clouds and snow flurries will linger for a few
hours, keeping ceilings MVFR.

Starting between 08-11z Thursday the morning, a wintry mix of
snow, sleet and freezng rain/drizzle will spreads quickly
across the region from SW to NE. All taf sites look to see a 1
to 3 hour period of IFR VSBYs and perhaps CIGs as a quick burst
of steady snow moves through. The steady snow will quickly mix
with sleet, which should bring vsbys back up to low end MVFR.
After 1 to 3 hours of light sleet, the precip type will change
to light freezing rain and drizzle at all taf sites; mainly in
the 15-20z timeframe. However, a few taf sites will rise above
freezing, ending the freezing rain by 18-19z (such as ELM, ITH
and AVP. Temperatures are not forecast to reach freezing until
late in the taf period, if at all at RME.

After the precipitation ends, some MVFR mist and MVFR fuel
alternate to IFR CIGs are forecast to linger through and beyond
00z Friday.


LLWS is expected at AVP/ELM/ITH/SYR during the morning hours
out of the south up to FL020 between 35-45kts.


Outlook...

Thursday afternoon... Restrictions will end from west to east
as precipitation moves out of the region. Possible LLWS.

Thursday night thru Friday...Lake effect snow showers likely in
a northwest flow; associated restrictions, especially SYR, ITH
and RME.

Saturday...Mainly VFR, with exception to RME and SYR, which may
be impacted by lake effect snow showers.

Saturday night...Restrictions likely (IFR or lower) with steady
snow and perhaps some wintry mix moving through the area.

Sunday...Snow tapers off to scattered lake effect snow showers
and flurries; restrictions possible (especially NY terminals)

Monday...A few lake effect snow showers or flurries possible;
mainly VFR (moderate confidence at this time)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for
     PAZ039-040-044-048-072.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     PAZ038-043-047.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ022-024-055.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC/MJM