676
FXUS61 KBGM 261858
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
258 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front pushes through this afternoon and evening,
with scattered rain and even a few wet snow showers over the
higher elevations tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure
then builds over the area Sunday into Monday with dry conditions
and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

A cold front will push through the area this afternoon and
evening, with winds shifting to WNW-NW and increasing between
15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph tonight into Sunday. Colder
air pushes in on NW flow overnight and wraparound moisture
arrives as the closed mid/upper level low spins east through
the Adirondacks and southern New England. 850mb temperatures
drop to around -2 or -3C late tonight, and surface temperatures
reach the mid-30s to lower 40s. There is some potential for snow
flakes across to mix in across the higher elevations of CNY
late tonight into early Sunday morning...but no accumulation
expected. Clouds and light rain/drizzle linger Sunday morning,
before the upper level low slides off the New England coast and
ridging builds in from the west. Clearing skies expected Sunday
from late morning to afternoon...lingering longest over the
Catskills where the clouds may not break for some sun until
late afternoon. Further back to the west, abundant sunshine is
expected Sunday by afternoon, but it will still be cool with
breezy NW winds. Highs will be in the 50s for most
locations...except perhaps low 60s for the Chemung river valley
and Wyoming Valley locations. Winds will weaken Sunday night and
with clear skies, radiational cooling will drop lows into the
mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update...

Upper level ridge moves into the region on Monday along with
high pressure. Another quiet day is in store with temperatures
warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. Clear skies are expected
throughout the day and overnight hours. Winds will remain calm
and variable during the day before shifting south Monday evening
as the ridge progresses east. This will keep temperatures in
the mid 40s to low 50s overnight. Clear skies and light winds
may allow temperatures to fall a few degrees lower.

Cold front moves in behind the upper ridge on Tuesday bringing a
chance of rain showers and thunderstorms to the region. Southwest
flow will advect a warm and unstable air mass ahead of the
front. Model soundings show potential for strong to severe
storms with CAPE values up to 1,500 J/KG. Other favorable
parameters include 40 to 45 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear,
favorable mid level lapse rates and steep low level lapse rates.
Soundings also show a cap in place for most of the day, but as
temperatures warm mid afternoon the cap is expected to break.
Highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s with partly sunny
skies. Timing of the frontal passage appears to be late
afternoon into early evening. There is still some uncertainty
in the timing and how far east instability reaches. SPC has most
of our region in a slight risk for severe storms with
exceptions over the Western Catskills, Wyoming Valley and Pocono
mountain region as instability doesn`t reach that far.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM Update...

Ridge builds back in by Wednesday with high pressure west of our
region. This will keep conditions dry with skies expected to clear
by the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front with
highs ranging in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the region. As the
ridge slides east, our region again gets placed in southwesterly
flow. This will allow warm moist air to get advected back into the
region by Thursday. A short wave moving along with ridge will bring
an initial round of showers Thursday, but the main round is expected
to move through Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will
gradually warm as the week progresses with highs in the mid 60s to
low 70s Thursday and Friday. Models begin to diverge by Saturday
making the weekend forecast a bit uncertain at this time.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front pushes through the region today with showers and
associated restrictions. By late evening and into the overnight
period, lingering low clouds and possibly light rain showers or
drizzle will continue to produce CIGs to MVFR Fuel Alt for most
taf sites and possibly a period of IFR early Sunday morning.

Winds will be out of west-northwest increasing to 20-25 kts.
These gusty NW winds continue through the evening and overnight
hours with a few gusts above 30 knots possible.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon...Becoming mainly VFR.

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Potential for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK