853
FXUS61 KBGM 191045
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
645 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High temperatures were lowered on Sunday from NBM with most
guidance running noticeably cooler with the cloudy and rainy
conditions expected. Thunder was also removed on Sunday north
of the NY/PA border with little to no instability.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will be running slightly cooler than average
today, but it will be a dry day with sunshine dimmed by high
clouds.

2) Rain returns later tonight into Sunday as the pattern
becomes more unsettled with several rounds of showers possible
next week. Fall-like temperatures are also expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure currently centered over eastern Ontario
will keep conditions dry across our area today. Sunshine is
expected to be dimmed by mid and high level clouds that are
streaming in from the west associated with the system that will
be bringing our next chance for rain later tonight into Sunday.
Clouds are expected to thicken later in the day as high
pressure slides off to the east. After a cool start early this
morning with temperatures primarily in the 40s and low 50s, high
temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees below
average, but overall it will be a fairly comfortable day with
light winds and low humidity as highs range from the mid 60s to
the low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A low pressure system will approach from the west later tonight,
potentially kicking off some isolated to scattered showers
ahead of it. Rain will become more widespread early Sunday
morning and continues throughout the day as the low moves across
the region. The track of this low has trended a bit farther
north over the past 24 hours, so there is still a little bit of
uncertainty there. Most guidance was lower than NBM with regards
to high temperatures Sunday, so they were lowered about 2 to 4
degrees, ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s.

The NAM does show around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE across parts
of NE PA, mainly over Luzerne, Lackawanna and Wyoming Counties,
Sunday and there is 30-40 knots of shear, but lapse rates are
low, so just a couple of rumbles seem possible. Thunder chances
were removed completely north of the NY/PA border.

WPC continues to highlight from around the NYS Thruway on south
in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Sunday. Looking at
guidance, PWATs peak mainly between 1.50 and 1.80 inches (but
closer to 2 inches in some spots on the Euro) and warm cloud
depths will near 12k feet. There is also increasing winds aloft,
most notably around 850mb that could enhance lift. All of this
can lead to some periods of locally heavy rainfall. Guidance is
still spread on exactly where the highest rainfall totals will
be, though the general focus seems to be across the Twin Tiers,
NE PA and into the Catskills with a widespread 1 to 1.50 inches
of rain, with localized higher amounts, through Monday. Looking
at the latest flash flood guidance, both 3 hour county and
headwater flash flood guidance is about 2 to 2.5 inches of rain,
except toward the Poconos where it is higher. Soil moistures
are also abnormally dry across north-central NY, so confidence
is low for any flash flood issues through some ponding in urban
and poor drainage areas will be possible.

This low moves east of the region late Sunday night and drags a
front south of the region. Behind this system, high pressure
brings drier air back in for Monday. Being in zonal flow, some
passing showers will be possible across portions of NE PA and
the Catskills. However, the latest model runs are a bit farther
south with the placement of the high, which then deflects most
of the moisture to our south, so shower chances have trended
lower. Broad surface high pressure centered of eastern Canada
will then compete with additional disturbances Tuesday through
Thursday. An upper low will develop over the Great Lakes region
early in the week and still under zonal flow, showers will
continue to move through the region. Just how far north these
showers will be is uncertain with the high pressure to the
north. The upper low will move little by Wednesday. East to
southwesterly flow will advect Atlantic moisture inland,
supporting showers midweek. The upper low becomes an open wave
as a surface low develops over the Mid-Atlantic coast. This low
will slide up the coast with the next round of showers on
Thursday.

The first extended taste of fall is expected next week.
Temperatures will only max out in the 50s and 60s before falling
into the 30s and 40s at night. Fall officially begins this
Tuesday at 804 PM EDT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across the region through the today
with high pressure in place. Rain will push into the region
after midnight with MVFR to IFR restrictions likely by early
Sunday morning.


Outlook...

Sunday...Rain expected for much of the period. Periods
of IFR restrictions likely.

Monday through Wednesday... Scattered rain showers and
associated restrictions possible. Uncertainty still remains for
this forecast period.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL/DK
AVIATION...JTC/MPK