278
FXUS61 KBGM 041339
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
939 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Largely dry today with morning clouds giving way to some
sunshine. Not as warm as yesterday, but high temperatures will
still be near to above average this afternoon. A slow moving
frontal system will lead to periods of rain this weekend.
Turning chillier early next week with a chance of rain and snow
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
935 AM Update...

No major changes. Current hourly temperatures were slightly
cooler than forecasted, so adjusted with the latest NBM.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.


635 AM Update...

Minor adjustments made to PoPs across NE PA toward the Poconos
as light showers skirt by to the south over the next couple of
hours. Temperatures across NE PA and the southern Catskills were
running warmer than projected, so blended in the HRRR through
the morning hours which was running close to observations across
the CWA. Dew points were also running a little low across CNY,
especially around the Finger Lakes, so blended in a little of
the NBM10th percentile also through the morning hours.

440 AM Update...

Surface high pressure currently centered over the Upper Midwest
will move east toward our region today, which will push any
shower activity off to the south and lead to a largely dry day.
After a cloudy start early this morning, skies are expected to
become partly to mostly sunny as the day progresses. While it
won`t be as warm as yesterday, high temperatures today will
still be near or above average ranging from the lower to mid 50s
across CNY and from the mid 50s to the lower 60s from the
Southern Tier on south. Some spots in the Wyoming Valley and
Delaware River Valley in NE PA can reach the mid 60s.

High pressure will pass by to the north and move into eastern
Quebec this evening and the brief period of dry weather will
come to an end as late tonight into Saturday will be the start
of an unsettled period for the region. A strong upper trough
will be situated over the western U.S. while a strong ridge of
high pressure is centered off the Southeast coast tonight into
Saturday. In between these two features, the first wave of low
pressure we`ll be tracking will be drawn northeastward and rain
is expected to overspread the area by early Saturday morning.
The rain can be heavy at times as a strengthening low level jet
Saturday originating from the western Gulf will draw plenty of
moisture northward and PWATs will be rising to around 1.20-1.40
inches Saturday. As this first feature continues to move off to
the northeast, rain showers may become more scattered in nature
during the afternoon or toward Saturday evening before the next
plume of moisture arrives. There is some uncertainty with where
the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up on Saturday but there
looks to be a general 0.25"-0.75" of rain through 00Z Sunday
with localized amounts of around 1.00 inch possible. A rumble or
two of thunder can`t be ruled out as well Saturday, but
instability looks pretty limited at this time with up to 200 to
300 J/kg of MUCAPE, but bulk shear values are projected at 50-70
knots.

Highs Saturday are expected to range from the upper 40s and low
50s east of I-81, while west of I-81 reaches the mid and upper
50s. Wind gusts of around 30-35 mph are expected Saturday
morning through the early afternoon around the Finger Lakes
region and the hills south of Syracuse.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM Update

Active weather expected through most of this forecast period. The
main concerns are periods of rain Saturday night and Sunday,
followed by some light, wet snow Sunday night. A stronger cold front
moves in Monday night with snow showers and squalls possible.

Saturday night will be wet with periods of rain and a slight chance
of thunderstorms across the region. This frontal wave of low
pressure will bring between a third and one half inch of rainfall
overnight. Guidance is trending cooler, but  with some spread and
uncertainty still...most probable overnight lows are in the mid-30s
to mid-40s south.

The front slowly translates south on Sunday, but differences in the
deterministic guidance remain on exact frontal position. Overall,
after some lingering morning rain the trend in the latest guidances
is for less rain and perhaps even some dry time Sunday afternoon up
across Central NY. Precipitation amounts are trending lighter during
the day on Sunday, less than a tenth of an inch. With the front
position trending south, cooler northwest winds will be present
through the day, with highs holding in the 40s for CNY, and low to
mid-50s in NE PA.

The final frontal wave will ride northeast out of the Mid-Atlantic
Sunday night into Monday morning. The 00z GFS is further north, with
the 00z ECMWF remaining south with this feature. Considering the
lingering uncertainty and differences in the deterministic guidance,
the official forecast was kept close to the NBM (ensemble) at this
time. This gives likely PoPs for snow/rain mix Sunday evening into
the overnight, before fading to chance, then slight chance Monday
morning. As temperatures cool into the upper 20s and low 30s
overnight there is the potential for some light snow
accumulations...mainly over the higher elevations. Trends will need
to be watch for this system, as slightly further north track similar
to the 00z GFS would bring the potential for a few inches of snow.

After the above mentioned wave of low pressure exits Monday morning,
it appears the forecast area will be in between systems for most of
the day on Monday. Winds turns west-southwest out ahead of the next
compact, potent low pressure system over the Great Lakes. Skies look
to turn partly sunny and temperatures will get close to seasonal
levels, reaching the mid-40s to lower 50s. The upper level trough,
surface cold front and clipper low pressure system then move across
the area Monday night. The latest guidance is trending faster with
this system by 6 hours or so compared to yesterdays model runs.
Behind this front temperatures plummet aloft and at the surface.
850mb temperatures reach -13C by daybreak and overnight lows are
expected to reach the mid to upper 20s. up to an inch of snow could
fall as the snow showers and occasional squalls roll through Central
NY and the northern tier of NE PA overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
440 AM Update

This period starts off cold, blustery and winter-like with scattered
to numerous snow showers in the forecast on Tuesday. This will be on
the back side of a deep mid and upper level trough swinging through
the area. 850mb temperatures bottom out around -15C or -16C late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Daytime highs only reach the upper 20s
to 30s areawide. This is 15-20F below average for early April;
closer to average nighttime lows. There could be additional minor
snow accumulations where the snow showers are most persistent,
especially Tuesday morning and again Tuesday evening/night. The
coldest night of the week looks to be Tuesday night as lows dip down
well into the 20s...and even some upper 10s in the coldest
locations. Winds will be strong and gusty Tuesday into Tuesday
night, out of the NW at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph at times.

The upper level trough starts to gradually exit the region on
Wednesday, but guidance still shows differences and discrepancies on
just how fast it exits. Overall, weather conditions should be
improving with mainly dry conditions, partly sunny skies,
diminishing winds and gradually moderating temperatures.
Temperatures finally rebound closer to average to round out the work
week Thursday & Friday. Look for highs in the 50s with mainly dry
weather Thursday, but chances for rain showers by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF
period. Dry weather is expected through the evening, then toward
the end of the TAF forecast, scattered showers will start to
move into the area, but any restrictions are expected near or
shortly after the end of the TAF period as the rain becomes
heavier. Some south-southeast LLWS is expected to develop also
toward the end of the TAF ahead of our next system, especially
around ELM, ITH, BGM and AVP. LLWS may develop at RME and SYR
after 12Z Saturday, so this will be monitored.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Periods of rain likely with
associated restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Scattered rain and snow showers may
bring occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/KL
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DK