436
FXUS61 KBGM 082352
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
752 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place into early next week increasing
the heat and humidity slowly each day. A weak cold front may
enter the region by the middle of next week with scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update

High pressure will off the New England coastline this evening
giving way to weak southerly flow. A weak shortwave may provide
just enough lift despite limited moisture for a stray shower or
thunderstorm east of I-81 this evening.

Clear skies tonight with light winds allowing patchy valley fog
and radiational cooling to be favored. The haze and smoke aloft
lift north and out of the area. Quite a dip for low temperatures
is likely with 50`s for most of the region.

Quiet weather expected for Saturday and Saturday night as 500
and 700mb heights rise over the area. Offshore surface high
remains in place over southern New England, providing a weak
southerly flow across Central NY and Northeast PA at the
surface. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny all day Saturday
with very little in the way of cloud cover. It begins to warm
up Saturday, as 850mb temperatures reach +15C...supporting highs
well into the 80s. Dew points remain in the 50s for the
afternoon, making for comfortable humidity levels. Saturday
night will be clear with light winds and some patchy valley fog
possible as lows dip down between 55-65 degrees areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging will be overhead on Sunday while high
pressure will be located just east of the area, which will
allow for very warm temperatures (highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s). With dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s, heat indices
should be below Heat Advisory criteria. Otherwise, mostly sunny
skies are expected on Sunday. Mostly clear skies are then
expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Monday will feature very similar weather to Sunday with upper
level ridging and surface high pressure remaining in control.
Highs are expected to once again be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Then upper 50s to upper 60s are expected for lows Monday night
along with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level ridge starts to break down a bit on Tuesday as a
trough approaches the Great Lakes Region. This may allow for
some isolated showers or thunderstorms to reach parts of the
Finger Lakes Region/Central-Southern Tier of NY, but the odds
are that Tuesday remains dry with most of the convection located
well to the west. Otherwise, it will remain very warm with highs
in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Dewpoints will also be a bit higher
(in the lower to mid 60s), so it will be a bit more humid as
well.

The aforementioned trough and associated surface cold front will
likely move through the region on Wednesday. This will bring
some scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area, especially
during the afternoon. It will remain warm and humid with highs
in the 80s and perhaps near 90 degrees, but this is a bit more
uncertain depending on how much convection there ends up being.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
on Thursday as a secondary shortwave may move through before
ridging may build back in for the end of the week. Temperatures
will likely be a bit cooler with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control therefore expect VFR through
the period with the exception of KELM. Haze and smoke appears to
be thinning and lifting away from the region with trends
expected to continue into Saturday. Visibility forecasts are
showing this improvement. Atmospheric column remains quite dry
but there still should be some diurnal cumulus forming tomorrow.
CCLs are about FL050-070.

Despite overall dryness, KELM should still muster a few hours of
restricted visibility late tonight. Confidence for exceeding
airport minimums is low, but occasionally reaching alternate
mins seem reasonable.

Winds will be light southerly or variable under 5 kts over the
next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. Chance FG at KELM each
early morning.

Wednesday...MVFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM/MWG
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JAB/MJM