225
FXUS61 KBGM 241029
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
629 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and steamy conditions will continue today before a cold
front brings cooler temperatures and thunderstorm chances
Wednesday through the end of the week. Heat indices are
expected to peak in the low 100s across lower elevations and
urban areas today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
620 AM Update...

The forecast remains on track with minor updates to temps and
dewpoints over the next couple of hours.

315 AM Update...

High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern tonight,
with clear skies and light winds across the region. Temps remain
warm, with widespread mid 60s to low 70s across the area.
Syracuse is the warm spot, with temps in the upper 70s.

Another hot day is in store for the CWA as high pressure will
continue to push heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s
across the region. High temperature records fell at all 3
climate sites yesterday (Binghamton, Avoca(PA), and Syracuse),
and the same is expected today as forecast highs are a couple
degrees above the record for all 3 sites; 91 at BGM, 94 at SYR,
and 97 at AVP(see climate section for current records). A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for the entire area until 8pm
tonight. There is a slight chance we will see some isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon for areas north of the Southern
Tier. Models differ on how the atmosphere will set up, as the
HRRR has much drier air in the lower atmosphere which caps much
of the instability while the NAM and NAMNest show more low level
moisture, which puts CAPE between 1500-2000 j/kg. If storms are
able to fire, bulk shear is expected to be under 20kts so storm
type should be small, unorganized, single updraft cells that
have a short lifespan. Low level lapse rates look strong enough
that a few cells may be able to get a strong enough updraft that
when it dissipates, the downdraft could produce gusty winds.
Confidence in this is low given several CAM soundings and water
vapor imagery show lots of dry air in the atmosphere.

Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s again, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, making for muggy sleeping
conditions.

Some relief from the heat is expected Wednesday as a cold front
will move in from the north. The ridge is expected to flatten
out Tuesday night, which will allow WNW flow to push the cold
front into the area starting in the late overnight hours.
Temperatures in NY are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s
with dewpoints in the mid 60s. The front should move into the
Twin Tiers by the afternoon, providing the trigger needed to tap
into CAPE values around 1500 j/kg and 0-6 bulk shear between
20-30kts. A plume of moisture is also expected to move into the
area from the west, with PWATs in the Twin Tiers between 1.8 and
2.2in. These ingredients will allow for a Marginal risk of
flash flooding and a Marginal risk for severe storms over the
aforementioned area. Because the cold front will keep
temperatures across much of the area in the 80s, the Heat
Advisory was removed for Wednesday for all counties except for
Luzerne, Pike and Sullivan. The cold front should not reach here
until late in the afternoon, which will allow heat indices to
climb into the mid 90s to low 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM Update...

Mostly zonal flow through the period with a stationary front
draped from west to east across Central PA. Being on the north
end of this boundary, we will see temperatures turn cooler on
Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. North of the
front, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon. Forecast soundings are indicating minimal
instability and shear, but PWATs remain high with Euro Ensemble
showing the mean to be over 2 standard deviations above normal.

If the front turns out being a little further south, then
instability will be too weak over most of the region for
thunderstorms. At this time, the best chance for thunderstorms
will be across NE PA. Too much uncertainty exists at this time,
as the GFS has pushed the front much further south than the Euro
and NAM and that scenario would likely keep the heaviest rain
and thunderstorms south of our forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
305 AM Update...

The flow remains zonal for much of this period with multiple chances
for showers and thunderstorms each day of this period. Frontal
boundary that was too our south will tick northward again on
Friday and into the weekend. Main concern will be potential
thunderstorms that could locally heavy rainfall, as PWATs remain
elevated. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average
to finish out the week and into the start of the weekend, so a
break from the heat for awhile. The stalled front could lift
north of the area as early as Sunday and this will allow for
temperatures to heat up once again. There is some potential for
heat advisory conditions popping up again for the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure dominates the forecast period, bringing clear
skies and VFR conditions at all terminals into the overnight
hours. Guidance is hinting at some fog development tonight at
all the NY terminals. Confidence is low as an approaching cold
front will have a big impact on fog development and timing of
the front is not quite locked down yet. ELM(tempo IFR) and
BGM(MVFR) currently look to have the best chance to see
restrictions based on model sounding profiles.


Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday....Chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms around with associated restrictions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
After record daily high temperatures set at all three climate
sites on Monday, June 23rd, record daily highs are likely to be
set once again for Tuesday, June 24th. Below are the current
record high temperatures for Syracuse NY, Binghamton NY, and
Avoca PA for June 24th:

Syracuse: 93 degrees in 1949 and 1952 (Forecast: 94 degrees)
Binghamton: 88 degrees in 1975 (Forecast: 91 degrees)
Avoca: 94 degrees in 1908 and 1923 (Forecast: 97 degrees)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-072.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ047-048.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
CLIMATE...