599
FXUS61 KBGM 222047
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
347 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system rotates over our region this
evening with lingering rain and snow showers. As the low shifts
east lake effect showers will develop over the weekend. A cold
frontal boundary then brings an additional chance of rain and
snow showers early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM Update...

Low pressure system continues to rotate over our region with a mix
of scattered rain and snow showers. The main band of showers has
pushed off to the western portion of our region with an
additional round filling in over our eastern counties. Overall
temperatures range in the mid 30s to low 40s this afternoon with
variable precipitation types. Some areas have transitioned to
rain with higher elevations still reporting snow. Showers are
expected to be lighter in nature and linger through the early
evening hours. Dry slot will work into the system from the east
allowing showers to fall apart over most of the region. Although
as the low rotates it will bring some isolated showers back
into northeast PA and the Western Catskills region this evening.
Additional snow accumulations up to 4 inches in expected in the
Western Catskills and up to an inch elsewhere. Therefore went
with the decision cancel the remaining Winter storm warnings and
advisories this update.

As temperatures fall overnight precipitation type will transition
back to snow, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Expecting a lull in showers tonight, but some high resolution models
hint that there could be a stray shower or two popping up.
Otherwise wind direction shifts northwest tomorrow behind the
system bringing some lake effect showers into our region.
Temperatures will keep snow showers in the forecast for the
morning hours before warming in the afternoon. Highs will range
in the low to mid 40s with rain showers expected for the rest of
the day over central NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update:

A west-northwest flow will develop Saturday night as the trough
finally exits the region. This will result in lake effect rain
and snow showers, but with marginal temperatures, areas along
the usual lake effect snow areas will only see a mix of rain and
snow showers and therefore little to no snow accumulation. Some
of the higher elevations of Central NY may see light snow
accumulations (up to a few tenths of an inch). Lows are expected
to be in the 30s.

Additional scattered lake effect rain and snow showers are
expected on Sunday, mainly in Central NY. Otherwise, gradual
clearing skies are expected for Northeast PA. Highs are expected
to be the 40s. High pressure then moves in from the west Sunday
night, which will allow for any lingering lake effect
precipitation to end. Partly cloudy skies are expected Sunday
night with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
255 PM Update:

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will keep
conditions dry for most of Monday. However, with the next
frontal system approaching the area, clouds will increase during
the afternoon. Cannot rule out some isolated rain showers late
in the day across the Finger Lakes Region, but the majority of
the area will remain dry. Highs are expected to be in the mid
40s to near 50.

The above mentioned system will move through the region Monday
night through Tuesday which will bring mainly rain to the area,
before cold air advection behind the system will bring some lake
enhanced snow showers to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Then the forecast becomes quite uncertain for the
Thursday/Friday timeframe as it is possible a coastal low
pressure system may impact the region. This depends on if two
pieces of upper level energy are able to phase together. If
this occurs too late, then precipitation could miss our region
entirely to the south.

Temperatures are expected to be near-normal through Tuesday
before below normal temperatures move in Wednesday through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1245 PM Update

A mix of rain, snow and drizzle continues across the region as a
low pressure system spins over Central NY and Northeast PA.

Most of the accumulating snow is now over for our taf sites;
AVP could see up to another inch over the next 2 hours.
Widespread CIG/VSBY restrictions will continue through the next
24 hours, with a mix of MVFR, MVFR fuel alternate and even some
IFR possible at ITH, BGM and AVP.

Highest confidence is at AVP, where it looks to remain IFR/LIFR
the rest of this afternoon and evening through about 23/06z.
This will be due to light snow, fog and drizzle.

BGM looks to fluctuate between IFR and MVFR Fuel Alt over the
next 4 hours, then likely improving to just MVFR Fuel Alt this
evening and overnight. IFR may return here in the upslope NW
flow by mid to late morning Saturday.

ITH has lingering IFR light snow for the next hour, with IFR
CIGs lingering through about 22z. Then improving to MVFR Fuel
Alt, and perhaps a short window scattering out. Solid MVFR Fuel
Alt, and even IFR returns early Saturday morning, continuing
through the day.

ELM fluctuates between MVFR and MVFR fuel alternate much of the
time for the next 24 hours. There is tempo for steadier rain,
and a few wet snow flakes mixing in over the next 3 hours.
There could be a short period where it scatters out to brief VFR
overnight...with moderate confidence in returning to MVFR fuel
alternate CIGS around daybreak, through the rest of the morning
and early afternoon.

SYR and RME see on and off periods of rain fluctuating between
MVFR and VFR for much of the taf period. SYR may see MVFR Fuel
Alternate after 12z Saturday in the NW lake enhanced flow.

Winds are east-northeast 8-15 kts, becoming northwest on
Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon and night...Continued possible restrictions
in rain and snow showers, especially Central NY.

Sunday...Gradual improvement. VFR probable for AVP with MVFR
expected elsewhere. Mixed rain/snow showers far northern areas.

Monday...Mainly VFR expected. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...Another approaching low pressure system
could bring possible restrictions.

Wednesday...Lake effect snow and rain showers bring possible
restrictions; especially our NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ022>024.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ045-
     046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC/MJM