095
FXUS61 KBGM 071757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temperatures again tonight with clear, calm conditions
once again.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry, fall like pattern continues into Wednesday, with a
gradual warm up expected into mid week.

2) A front moves in Wednesday night into Thursday bringing rain
and isolated thunderstorms to the region.

3) Generally dry benign weather returns towards the end of this
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The stacked upper level low is slowly moving to the east today
with ridging starting to build back in. Weak warm air advection
with the ridge building in will help high temperatures climb
into the upper 70s and low 80s Tuesday into Wednesday. Surface
high pressure and dry air in place will keep the region dry and
mostly sunny the next couple of days before some high clouds
begin to advect in Wednesday. With the surface high in place
along with clear skies, valley fog formation is expected once
again tonight. Increasing surface winds and drier air in place
tomorrow may lower the coverage of morning fog Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An area of low pressure that forms in the lee of the northern
Rockies today will pass north of the Great Lakes Wednesday night
into Thursday dragging a cold front through the region. Models
and ensembles have come into better consistency with the front
passing through late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning. Ensemble probabilities of Most Unstable CAPE >500 and
shear >30 knots has fallen down to around 10%. Picking out the
ensemble members that meet the criteria, have the front passing
through later Thursday and given they are outliers, confidence
is high that the severe thunderstorms are unlikely. Still given
some elevated CAPE in model soundings, a few thunderstorms
embedded in the stratiform precipitation along the front is
likely.

Rainfall with the front is a higher concern but will likely
cause little to no problems. Precipitable Water values are still
up between 1.5 and 2 inches with decent moisture being advected
poleward ahead of the front. Deterministic models have backed
off on a secondary low forming along the front so the potential
for a more prolonged period of rain is waning. The front looks
to be fairly progressive as it moves through so training
thunderstorm threat is also lowering. Brief heavy rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in some of the thunderstorms may
lead to localized urban flooding if they occur over a town or
city.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once the front is through, we enter a period of westerly Zonal
flow with not many shortwaves in the flow, at least not modeled
currently right now. With surface high pressure building back
in, conditions Friday into next weekend may be very similar to
this stretch of weather that we just had this weekend. 850 mb
temperatures are a few degrees cooler so temperatures may be in
the upper 60s and low 70s rather than low to mid 70s like they
were this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions for the terminals this afternoon with fair
weather cu across/near most of the terminals. There are some periods
of MVFR CIGs with some of the denser patches of fair weather cu
this afternoon. As drier air slowly shifts east across NY, the
potential for these brief MVFR CIGs will decrease, as seen
across SW NY.

High pressure will center over the area tonight and clouds will
mostly clear out this evening with VFR flight conditions expected.
Some higher clouds, currently near the upper lakes will try to fill-
in overnight, but should remain at the higher levels. With mainly
clear lower levels and light to calm winds, fog can be expected
again, especially at the favorable spots (ELM & ITH) with BGM having
some fog at the lower elevations from the terminal that may get
close to the runway. Fog will cause lowered CIGs & VSBYs, likely
down to LIFR at times for the more favorable locations.

Tuesday, mainly VFR, with lower cats early due to morning fog.
Sounding profiles are a little drier in the lower levels than
previous days, so the fog may burn off a bit quicker Tuesday
morning.

Daytime winds, both this afternoon and for Tuesday will remain near
or below 5 mph out of the northwest to northeast or variable.


Outlook...

Tuesday night...Mainly VFR; areas of low clouds and fog possible.

Wednesday through Thursday...Potential cold front passage with
wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later
Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building into the region. Morning fog will be possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MDP
AVIATION...SJW