225
FXUS61 KBGM 250906
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
406 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry conditions and seasonable temperatures
today. A low pressure system brings rain showers to the region
tonight into Tuesday morning. The next storm system will bring
a chance of rain and snow to the region on Thanksgiving and into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Lake effect clouds continue to stream across the region tonight.
A weak ridge currently over OH and western PA will move into the
region today, switching winds from NW to SW as the ridge axis
moves overhead by the afternoon hours. Temps will climb into the
mid to upper 40s thanks to this WAA.

A trough moving into the Great Lakes region this afternoon will
generate a surface low over MI that will move NE into Canada
during the overnight hours. This low will push a warm front into
the area during the evening hours that should kick off some
scattered rain showers across areas west of I-81 through the
late evening hours. After midnight, the upper level shortwave
looks to tilt more negative, deepening the surface low to our
north and generating more widespread steady rain across the
region into Tuesday mid-morning. Most of the synoptic driven
rain will be east of the region by early afternoon. The cold
front associated with this low will be behind the precip, so we
are not expected anything other than rain to fall across the
area. Westerly flow moves in behind the cold front, and will a
cool airmass moving in, lake effect showers should develop
across CNY from Lake Erie and areas north of I-90 should see
showers from Lake Ontario during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures on Tuesday will not be diurnal thanks to the cold
front moving through during the middle of the day. Temps in the
late mornirng/early afternoon will climb into the upper 40s to
low 50s, falling into the upper 30s to low 40s by late
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
310 AM Update...

Cold air advection expected Tuesday night into Wednesday on
westerly flow. The CAA will likely produce some lake effect
rain and snow across the Tug Hill and mainly north of the NYS
Thruway through Wednesday afternoon. By the afternoon, low
level flow will shift to the SW as our next system will be
pushing into the lower Ohio Valley. Before this occurs, there
could be some light snowfall accumulation across Northern Oneida
County of 1 to 3 inches, but due to increasing temperatures
through the day, any snow that accumulates will do so before
noon Wednesday. Highs across the region will generally be in the upper
30s to mid-40s Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
320 AM Update

Still quite a bit of forecast uncertainty for Thanksgiving and
through the remainder of the week. Main focus continues to be
low pressure system tracking up the Ohio Valley. There is still
substantial differences in model solutions for the eventual
track and evolution of this system. GFS model continues to be a
miss for our region, while the Euro continues to bring
widespread precipitation into the area Thanksgiving morning.

The 0Z Euro brings a strong, negatively tilted trough into the
Ohio Valley, which causes surface cyclogenesis over
Tennessee/Kentucky and then tracks the low up across the Mid-
Atlantic and across Southern New England along the coast into
the Gulf of Maine. This would bring higher precipitation
amounts, with snow early Thursday changing to a wintry mix/rain
and then back to snow Thursday night into Friday. The GFS has a
positive tilted trough and weak low pressure well south of the
region. Ensemble means of the Euro and GEFS are similar to their
operational model at this time. For now, there is just too much
uncertainty to provide details on this system and hopefully in
the next run or two the models will start showing some better
agreement. Continue to use the NBM ensemble blend at this time,
which still keeps categorical PoPs across a large portion of the
area Thanksgiving Day.

Behind this system, there remains high confidence in much
colder weather arriving into the region for the weekend and
into early next week. The incoming trough will pull much colder
air down from northern Canada, and this would be the first real
winter temperatures the region has seen this season. Lake
effect snow will be likely in the favored locations down wind
of Lake Ontario and Erie. The exact direction of the flow is
still uncertain, but there will be potential for accumulating
lake effect snow starting Friday and lasting through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect clouds continue across the region, but should slowly
diminish as the night progresses as winds aloft shift. Kept MVFR
conditions at ITH and BGM for a few hours longer than guidance
suggested given their propensity to keep low clouds with NW flow
pushing moisture off the Finger Lakes. VFR conditions expected
for the rest of the terminals through the day today.

Rain returns in the evening, with some widely scattered showers
ahead of an incoming low pressure system. Conditions should drop
to MVFR at ELM/ITH/SYR just before the TAF period ends.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible
in rain showers, with snow showers mixing in late Tuesday.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Lake effect snow and rain
showers may bring occasional restrictions to the Central NY
terminals.

Thursday through Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered
rain and snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JTC