608
FXUS61 KBGM 071951
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
351 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong late season cold front moves through the area tonight.
A quick burst of moderate snow showers will be possible along
the front, with lake effect developing tomorrow morning across
much of New York. Winds will be strong behind the front through
tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be well below normal
through into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM Update...

Sharp gradient in cloud cover over the CWA from NW to SE has
temps ranging from upper 40s to low 50s in the northern Finger
Lakes to mid 30s in the Wyoming Valley. Onshore flow has pushed
a marine layer over the Poconos and into the Scranton/Wilkes-
Barre area, with fog and low clouds present. Quiet weather
conditions are expected into the early evening before the next
system arrives.

A low pressure system currently centered east of Lake Huron, moving
across southern Ontario is dragging a strong cold front through
the Great Lakes region. This front is expected to move into the
western portions of the CWA around 8pm. With the sunshine this
afternoon and temps in the 40s across much of the Finger Lakes
and Mohawk Valley, some weak instability will be present
(20-30j/kg of CAPE) as the cold front moves into the area. The
front will be able to ingest this and we should see some weak,
to topped convective like showers develop. Temps will be above
freezing ahead of the front, but with some light rain preceding
the front and dry air at the surface, wetbulbing should occur
and quickly drop temps to near freezing. This should allow snow
to develop in these convective showers as well as gusty winds.
Currently, the best chance for gusty snow showers will be from
Steuben county, NE through the Finger Lakes and into Oneida
county. A quick 0.5 inches of snow will be possible in the
heavier showers, although the gusty winds will make it hard to
accurately measure. Luckily, the passage of this front will be
after peak evening traffic, and roads look to be well above
freezing now, ranging from the mid 40s to upper 60s along the NY
Thruway in our CWA. Because of this, widespread travel concerns
are not expected outside of patchy slick spots and strong winds
blowing high profile vehicles.

The surface low will continue to slowly move eastward tonight
through tomorrow, with a mid level and upper level cutoff low
stacked on top of it. This will allow very cold air to rush into
the CWA from central Canada tonight through tomorrow night. NW
winds are expected to push air 20-25 degrees colder than normal
into the region. With this strong CAA, a Wind Advisory was
necessary as winds gusting up to 50mph will be possible across
the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley from 2am tonight to 8pm
tomorrow. Temps tonight will fall into the mid to low 20s with
highs tomorrow only in the mid 20s to low 30s for NY and low to
mid 30s in NEPA. Tuesday night will be the coldest, with lows
in the upper teens to low 20s across the CWA.

Its April so you would think we would be done talking about lake
effect snow, but that is not yet the case. -16 to-18C air at
850mb is expected to move over Lake Ontario later tonight
through tomorrow afternoon. With these cold temps and the WNW
winds coming off the lake, snow showers are expected to develop
across the Finger Lakes, into CNY, and up to Oneida county.
These showers should ramp up just before sunrise, shifting north
to the Mohawk and Oneida county Tuesday night as a ridge builds
in from the SW. Snowfall amounts looks to be light, with 1-3
inches possible in northern Oneida county over 36hrs, with 1-2
inches over S Oneida, Madison, Onondaga, Cortland and W Cayuga
counties. The southern Tier could see a dusting to a couple
tenths of an inch during this period. A lot of the snow will
melt during the day thanks to the April sun angle. Snow during
the night should stick to elevated and grassy surfaces.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
225 PM Update...

Lake effect snow showers for the Thruway Corridor will be cut
off Wednesday morning with high pressure building into the area.
An upper-level trough over the are will lift off north and east,
warmer air will allow temperatures to increase into the upper
30s to low 40s, an improvement from the high 20s to low 30s
Tuesday. High pressure is yet again short lived as a low
pressure system begins to develop south of the Great Lakes,
helping to deepen a new trough. For Thursday, precipitation will
start as a mix of rain and snow Thursday morning before
transitioning to mostly rain by the afternoon. Precipitation
will carry on the rest of the day and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM Update...

The aforementioned surface low struggles until the upper-level
trough migrates over the ocean, helping to restrengthen the low.
A skinny, long trough will help to pull the newly strengthened
low northward and into our area, as well as some warmer air.
Temperatures will warm into the high 40s to low 50s, but rain
will continue through Saturday evening.

Towards the end of the long term period. A coastal low forms off
the coast of North Carolina, and tracks northward thanks to the
upper-level trough over the area. Guidance has quite a bit of
difference, where the ECMWF has precipitation from this system
pushing into NE PA, and other models, such as the GFS,
completely keeping the system out to sea. Since it`s the end of
the long term period, confidence is low, but we`ll continue to
monitor this system.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A marine layer has worked its way into AVP, with Fuel Alt
ceilings expected to go IFR for a few hours this evening. MVFR
ceilings should even work their way into BGM late this
afternoon as well. Partly cloudy skies allow for VFR conditions
at all other terminals into the evening hours.

A strong cold front will push through this evening, bringing a
burst of snow and gusty winds to all NY Terminals starting
around 01z at ELM, ending after 06z at RME. Tempo IFR visby
will be possible during these snow showers as winds gust to
25kts out of the west. Gusty winds remain across the area
through the TAF period as NW flow and cold air will spill into
the region. RME/SYR/ITH should see gusts between 30-35kts while
ELM/BGM/AVP should be between 25-30kts. Lake effect snow will
move into SYR/RME with MVFR conditions expected into through the
morning and afternoon hours.


Outlook...

Tuesday Afternoon...Scattered rain and snow showers may bring
occasional restrictions. West -northwest wind gusts Tuesday
afternoon from 25-40 knots at times.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
overhead.

Thursday and Friday...Potential rain showers with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015>018-023-
     025-036-037-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC