224
FXUS61 KBGM 210717
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
317 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered PoPs and QPF Monday night through Tuesday with system
being more south than previously forecast. Best chance for rain
with this system will be across the Poconos Region, but a
further southward shift may completely keep rainfall our of our
area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A wave of low pressure will move slowly east along a remnant
frontal boundary Monday night into Tuesday, Possibly bringing
rain to Northeast PA.

2) High pressure nudges in from the north, bringing dry, partly
sunny and seasonably cool weather mid week.

3) Watching a potential coastal low for the end of the work
week into next weekend that looks to meander along the southern
New England shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Still quite a bit of low level moisture around this morning with
low stratus and fog. Eventually, heating and drier air aloft
will mix out the moisture and by early afternoon. However, still
likely to see mostly cloudy conditions this afternoon with
widespread cirrostratus over the area with some filtered
sunshine. Temperatures will be seasonable in the 60s for highs.
Northerly winds are slightly breezy between 6-15 mph through
the day.

0Z model guidance has significantly cut back PoPs and QPF
tonight through Tuesday. A wave of low pressure is forecast to
track a bit further south and there will be a tight rainfall gradient
between central PA and NE PA. Best chance for rain in our CWA
will be Luzerne County, but any further shift southward, as some
0Z guidance is showing, will pull rainfall completely out of our
area.

High pressure to the north will be bringing in a very dry air
mass. This high pressure system should keep the bulk of our CWA
dry and even if rain does make it into NE PA, it will likely
clear out by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will vary
considerably, with cool overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s
Monday night across portions Oneida County and southward into
Delaware County, but in most locations, the lows will be in the
mid to upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of
the week. This will bring dry conditions with cool overnight
temperatures into the upper 30s to low 40s. Can`t completely
rule out frost for some of the coldest spots, and this will be
something to double check on as we get closer.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Forecast for the end of the week and through the weekend is
becoming a little more clear . A shortwave dives south out of
Quebec into New England. At the same time a closed upper level
low drifts east across the Ohio Valley and off the Mid- Atlantic
coast. By Friday morning, phasing of these feature could occur
and produce a strong Nor`easter off the Delmarva region. There
still remains some uncertainty on where this low could
ultimately develop and track, but 0Z guidance is in much better
agreement than past model runs. For our region, at this time it
appears there could be potential for wrap around rain to push
back to the west into some of our eastern forecast zones Friday
into Saturday. Although some uncertainty remains on the overall
details of the positions and track of the low, the models are
in good agreement that a strong low pressure will be somewhere
just off the coast. The evolution of this coastal low will
certainly need to be tracked closely over the coming week, as
further westward shift in the track could bring more impacts to
our region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Biggest issue through early Monday morning will be the potential
for MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility due to low stratus and
fog. Greatest confidence for this to occur is at RME, ELM, AVP
and BGM. There remains some uncertainty on timing and duration
of IFR restrictions.

High pressure is building into the region today and all
terminals are expected to become VFR by mid to late morning,
lasting through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Possible restrictions with showers, especially NE PA
and perhaps the NY Southern Tier terminals.

Wednesday and Thursday...Likely VFR most of the time.

Thursday night...High pressure may allow for patchy fog and IFR
restrictions.

Friday...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...ES/JTC