378
FXUS61 KBGM 241818
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
218 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will only slowly exit the
area through Sunday, and in time showers will become fewer.
Isolated showers could still occur Memorial Day mainly east of
Interstate 81, but it will be mainly dry and milder then, with
even some sunshine. Tuesday looks dry, before rain chances
increase midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
205 PM Update...
Chilly upper level low pressure will only slowly loosen its
hold on our region.

The center of stacked low pressure has wobbled its way to
northern New England, but upper level cyclonic flow extends well
beyond which has maintained cloud cover and showers across our
region. This morning featured more drizzle/mist and light rain,
but with afternoon heating, things have become more cellular.
While convective, the instability is shallow; generally below
10 kft and also warmer than minus-10 Celsius. Thus we do not
anticipate any lightning. Cloud cover is also limiting the
actual heating in this chilly air mass, holding highs today only
in the lower to mid 50s for most locations. Cooling this evening
will allow cellular showers to diminish overnight, though clouds
will prevent temperatures from dropping below the 40s.

The stacked low drifts farther away Sunday, with milder
temperatures and somewhat drier air. That said, a well marked
shortwave pivoting around the broad cyclonic flow appears set to
move into the area in the afternoon, which along with help of
Great Lakes moisture, will generate some additional showers.
Coverage will probably be less than today; indeed much of the
time will be dry. However, the instability layer will extend a
little deeper beyond 10 kft and colder at the top of it. Thus
isolated thunder cannot totally be ruled out towards the
western Finger Lakes- Southern Tier; vast majority of the area
will still just have a few showers around which will alternate
with partial sunshine at times. Highs will be in the upper
50s-mid 60s; still roughly 10 degrees below average highs.

Leftover showers quickly dissipate Sunday evening, with
decreasing clouds as well. This will allow temperatures to sneak
down just a little bit more for lows of upper 30s-mid 40s. Given
recent rainfall, we may see some patchy fog develop in valleys
where the sky manages to open up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

An upper level shortwave trough will be departing the area
Monday, Memorial Day, and high pressure at the surface and aloft
will start to build in late Monday into Monday night. There
still can be an isolated shower or two Monday with the upper
ridge slow to build in and disrupt the persistent northwest flow
that has been in place, but PoPs are mainly less than 25%
through 00Z Tuesday so much of the time is expected to be rain-
free. Monday`s highs will be closer to average ranging from the
mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Some of the highest elevations in
the hills south of Syracuse and the Mohawk Valley and into the
Catskill will be stuck in the lower 60s. Overnight lows Monday
will remain in the 40s.

We`ll get a brief reprieve from the wet weather Monday night
into Tuesday, but as high pressure moves east of the
NJ/Delvmarva coast out over the Atlantic Tuesday afternoon and
evening, any sunshine from early in the day will give way to
increasing clouds. The milder trend will continue as highs
Tuesday are mostly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Looking farther out west, another upper level low is expected
to develop over the northern Plains Tuesday, and a shortwave
rounding the base of the trough is expected to lead to the
development of a surface low near the Ohio Valley. The warm
front with this feature is expected to lift north Tuesday night
toward the CWA and can lead to a small chance of a shower prior
to daybreak Wednesday, mainly from Steuben County south and east
across Bradford, Wyoming and Luzerne Counties in PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
215 PM Update...

The low pressure system mentioned above will slowly drift north
and east Wednesday and Wednesday night, reaching the eastern
Great Lakes region by about 12Z Thursday. As moisture is drawn
northward, the chance for showers will also increase from south
to north across the CWA during this time. The chance for
additional showers will continue into Thursday as the low slowly
travels northeast across southern Canada. Some model guidance
also shows the potential for a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE
with 30-50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear late Wednesday into
Thursday, so some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

The pattern still looks unsettled Friday into the start of next
weekend as the upper low over the northern Plains transitions
to an open trough of low pressure that pushes east and is
followed up by additional upper disturbances that keep general
troughiness across the Northeast.

As the flow shifts from the south-southeast on Wednesday to
southwesterly Thursday, temperatures will trend upward for the
second half of the week. A wide range in high temperatures is
expected Wednesday with NE PA and the Twin Tiers in the upper
50s to mid 60s as scattered showers are expected to be around
much of the day, while farther north across CNY toward the Tug
Hill, highs are expected to reach the mid 60s to near 70
degrees with showers arriving later in the day. Thursday and
Friday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight
lows Wednesday night through Friday night will be in the upper
40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moisture, scattered showers, and restrictions continue to hang
around courtesy of the persisting influence of upper level low
pressure. That said, somewhat drier air will gradually edge into
the region to reduce coverage of showers. KAVP-KELM should stay
above 2000 feet ceilings at this point, but the remainder of
terminals will fluctuate between MVFR and fuel alternate
required levels with passing showers; then eventually dipping
back into IFR as ceilings lower overnight. Gradual improvement
will occur Sunday morning, though a few showers will again be
possible midday onward.

Outlook...

Late Sunday afternoon through night...Isolated showers end, but
the minor ceiling restrictions could persist. Where clouds
break, valley fog also possible especially KELM.

Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR; temporary high
pressure moves into the region.

Wednesday through Thursday...Weak low pressure system encroaches
to cause scattered showers/restrictions, and perhaps eventual
thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MDP