783
FXUS61 KBGM 161049
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming over the next couple of days as upper level ridging
builds in with a few chances of rain showers and thunderstorms
as we head into the weekend.

2) Watching potential for a stalling front late this weekend
into early next week that could bring more persistent rainfall
which may be heavy at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Strong ridge of high pressure south of the region keeps zonal flow
over the area today with westerly flow. A shortwave tough is
moving through this morning kicking off a line of showers over
central NY. Once this line moves through there could be another
push of morning showers. A weak cold front is expected to move
through the region later this afternoon and into this evening
with potential to kick off a few more showers. Overall CAMs
show isolated showers possible throughout the day, but
confidence on where exactly these develop is uncertain. Overall
most of today should lean dry with highs warming into the mid
70s to low 80s with overnight temperatures in the low to mid
60s.

A more organized low is expected to track over the region on
Thursday bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
Initially a warm front will move through in the morning with a
cold front following after. If the timing of the frontal passage
trends later, there could be a low severe thunderstorm risk
with greater than 30 knots of shear in place. Precipitable water
values range 1.5-1.75 inches, with a warm could depth of 11-12k
feet, so any thunderstorms or showers that do form along the
front will have heavy rain. Highs again will warm into the mid
70s to low 80s with overnight temperatures falling into the mid
50s to low 60s.

Surface high pressure builds back into the area by Friday allowing
dry conditions to persist through Saturday morning. Northwest flow
also settles in with cooler temperatures, highs will range in the
upper 60s to low 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another system approaches the region this weekend as the ridge
begins to recede and a low pressure system advances from the
Midwest. Much of Saturday should remain dry, though an
approaching warm front may bring increasing chances for showers
Saturday night into Sunday. Strengthening southwesterly flow
ahead of the low will transport abundant moisture into the
region through Sunday. The pattern then becomes increasingly
unsettled as the frontal boundary stalls near the northern
periphery of the southeast ridge, with a series of waves
tracking along it into early next week. The exact placement of
this boundary remains uncertain, which will ultimately
determine where the heavies precipitation occurs. However model
guidance continues to suggest the potential for several rounds
of rainfall. Temperatures will remain cool through the weekend
into early next week, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s
and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are mainly expected through around 03z today. A
semi-stationary boundary will bring ceiling restrictions to all
NY terminals starting around 03z. Restrictions could get as low
as IFR, but confidence is low currently since it`s towards the
end of this TAF period.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night...Scattered showers and associated restrictions
develop.

Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
occasional restrictions, especially in the afternoon.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered rain showers and associated
occasional restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/ES
AVIATION...KL