179
FXUS61 KBGM 221001
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
601 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and seasonably warm late summer weather is expected today into
Saturday as high pressure remains in control. A frontal system arrives
Sunday, bringing widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms.
Showers linger behind the front into early next week, along with
much cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

-Dry, quiet and warm late summer weather persists today through
Saturday. Nighttime and early morning fog is expected in the
valleys. It will be a little cool at overnight, but above average
temperatures return Saturday afternoon.

- Stronger frontal system bring widepsread rain showers and a chance
for thunderstorms starting Saturday night through Sunday. A few of
the storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, with WPC having
portions of the forecast area under a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk
for Excessive Rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures arrive early to middle of next week with lake
effect clouds and scattered showers possible, along with breezier
west-northwest winds at times.

.Short Term /Through Sunday Night/...
315 AM Update

Expect a cool start early this morning, with widespread valley fog
around the region. High pressure builds through the day, bringing
sunny skies, low humidity, light NW winds and warm afternoon
temperatures. It will be mainly clear tonight with more valley fog
possible, especially for central and eastern locations. Winds turn
southerly overnight, increasing up to 10 mph over the Finger Lakes.
Not quite as cool, with lows in the 50s areawide. Upper level ridge
and surface high start to shift off to the east by Saturday. It will
still be partly to mostly sunny most of the day, but can`t rule out
a late day isolated shower or storm over the western Finger Lakes.
It will be warm and a touch humid, with highs well into the 80s.

Upper level trough starts to move into the area Saturday night,
bringing increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
overnight. The clouds and showers will keep nighttime temperatures
warm, in the upper 50s to mid-60s.

A stronger frontal boundary will slowly press through the area on
Sunday. There still remains uncertainty in the exact timing of the
prefrontal trough and cold front. Model guidance has been
consistently showing plenty of deep layer shear over the area,
between 40-45 kts, but the amount of instability present is
questionable. This will depend on cloud cover and how much daytime
heating is realized. Humidity does rise, with surface dew points
reaching well into the 60s. PWATs are progged to be 1.25 to 1.5
inches, so not overly impressive. With that said, WPC continues to
highlight much of the CWA under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall and flash flooding...so this will be something to keep a
close eye on as we get closer in time, and details become more
clear. The front only gradually shifts east, as the flow becomes SW
to NE...which is somewhat parallel to the frontal boundary. This
will keep periods of rain, showers and scattered thunderstorms going
for much of the overnight period. Overnight lows are forecast to dip
back down into the 50s and lower 60s.

Long Term /Monday Through Thursday/

315 AM Update

This period starts off with unsettled weather as an upper level
trough rotates into the area. On Monday, the mid level flow is
initially still west-southwest and 850mb temperatures only slowly
fall to around +9C by evening. There will likely be a dry slot
moving through the area at some point during the day, but this will
fill back in and scattered showers/isolated t`stotms are forecast to
redevelop. Overall, Monday is shaping up to be partly to mostly
cloudy, slightly breezy and still on the mild side with highs
reaching into the 70s. Thicknesses and temperatures aloft fall
Monday night, reaching +6C at 850mb. The expansive upper level
trough moves overhead and there will be a slight chance for
lingering showers. Turning much cooler with lows in the upper 40s to
mid-50s expected. Not much change for Tuesday, with the broad upper
trough remaining in place and a few shortwaves likely to roll through
the forecast area. Expect partly cloudy conditions with better
chances for scattered showers across CNY, and isolated showers down
into NE PA. West-northwest winds increase between 8-15 mph, making
for breezy and cooler conditions as highs only reach 65-75F degrees.

Cool conditions continue through midweek, with the trough axis
finally moving through Tuesday night. 850mb temperatures bottom out
around +4-5C early Wednesday morning. With lake temperatures around
+25C this will bring plenty of lake induced instability to initial a
lake effect response. Right now there is uncertainty in just how
fast the area will dry out as the trough flattens out on Wednesday.
It will certainly be cool both Tuesday and Wednesday night, with a
taste of fall, as low reach well down into the 40s for most
locations. Wednesday should feature partly sunny conditions with
continued below average high temperatures only in the 60s to low
70s. A long wave trough still remains in place over the Northeastern
US by next Thursday, but there could be a brief rebound in
temperatures with highs getting back into the 70s under sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lingering restrictions due to fog and low ceilings will be
possible for the first hour or so in the TAF period. Otherwise,
conditions will be VFR today and tonight, though fog and IFR
visibilities will be possible at ELM late tonight/early Saturday
morning. Winds will be light and variable.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Scattered showers may bring occasional
restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BTL