890
FXUS61 KBGM 180222
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1022 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Partly cloudy, breezy and a little cooler tonight as a cold
front moves through the region. Dry weather returns on Friday
with cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected. A few
scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible on Saturday with
seasonable temperatures. Additional rain showers will be possible
on Sunday, before dry weather and high pressure returns for the
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

1015 PM Update

Quiet and a little breezy weather expected for the overnight
period under partly cloudy skies. Mostly cloudy skies early
Friday morning will scatter out with sunny skies by late morning
and into the afternoon hours. Light north-northwest winds are
expected Friday 5 to 10 mph, with comfortable humidity levels,
as dew points fall into the 50s areawide.

Previous Discussion Below

The ingredients for organized severe weather continues to be
disjointed with dry air in place with the strongest shear
located well north of the area, somewhat limited instability
due to cloud cover, and poor lapse rates. Still cannot rule out
a few stronger thunderstorms, particularly north of the NYS
Thruway corridor, but the potential continues to decrease. The
more noteworthy aspect of this afternoon`s weather is a
relatively tight pressure gradient that has resulted in locally
gusty winds.

Any lingering showers quickly this evening following the
passage of the cold front as drier and cooler air advects into
the region. High pressure builds in behind the front with low
temperatures overnight expected to be in the lower 50s to mid
60s and highs on Friday only in the 70s and low humidity. After
some morning clouds due to a cool northwest flow, skies should
become mostly sunny by the afternoon on Friday.

High pressure will result in dry conditions Friday night. With
clear skies, and relatively calm winds, radiational cooling will
allow for lows to dip down to the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly sunny skies are expected Saturday morning but clouds
will start to fill in ahead of the next approaching system. Rain
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop late
Saturday afternoon into Sunday as a shortwave moves in from the
west. While sounding profiles show somewhat favorable 0-6 km
bulk shear, instability appears limited. Therefore the threat
for any severe weather looks rather low at this time.

Drier air moves in Sunday night as high pressure begins to
build over the area and a cold front departs the area. This will
result in clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will dominate Monday and Tuesday, keeping
conditions quiet and dry. Northwest flow will also help maintain
seasonably comfortable temperatures. By Tuesday night into
Wednesday, a weak upper-level ridge will shift eastward,
allowing an embedded shortwave to approach. This feature may
bring a return of showers and thunderstorms sometime midweek,
though model guidance continues to vary on exact timing.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A abnormally strong low pressure system to our north is
producing winds gusts between 20-30kts across the the region. As
we we loose heating and the low continues to lift to the NE,
wind gusts are expected to weaken by mid evening. NW flow will
continue through the overnight hours, which will push an MVFR
deck into CNY thanks to moisture from the Great Lakes. This deck
should lift by 12-13z with high pressure and VFR conditions
expected through Friday.


Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG/ES
LONG TERM...BJG/ES
AVIATION...JTC