626
FXUS61 KBGM 121657
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1257 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front sweeps through the area late Sunday with some
showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. A brief break with a
quick moving high pressure system Tuesday. However,a broad
trough of low pressure renews the heat and thunderstorm chances
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Another hot and humid day in progress across the region. Typical
pop up thunderstorms should continue to occur through the
evening hours with some instability in place. As of early
afternoon, what thunderstorms we do have are fairly slow moving
due to little flow and shear.With the loss of daytime heating
the coverage should decrease after the evening hours.

Modeling is bringing a marine layer northwest into portions of
the region overnight with some slight onshore flow increasing
the low clouds with some fog formation possible as well.
Another muggy night too as a result with lows near 70.

A cold front is still expected to sweep through the region
Sunday afternoon and night. Modest instability looks to be in
place along with lift near the front for several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to develop and move through the
region. PW values indicate a very moist environment, pushing 2
inches with tall skinny CAPE profiles. Added heavy rain wording
to the forecast with this forecast package as localized urban
and flash flooding is possible due to rainfall rates. In terms
of any strong to severe storms, A bit of dry air initially in
the mid-levels may promote a few downbursts of wind but the
severe threat looks secondary at this time. Highs should get
well into 80`s with exact values dependent on the exact time of
any thunderstorm. Another muggy night Sunday night as the front
slowly shifts east.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Ensemble guidance indicates fairly slow movement of the front
Monday. As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances are still
pretty high Monday east of I-81. Similar to Sunday, heavy
downpours with localized flooding looks to be the main threat.
Temperatures look to a few degrees cooler Monday with more
clouds and the residual rain chances. A brief break Tuesday but
heat and humidity will already start building again. Heat index
values may flirt near 95 for valley locations in NY Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Currently, heat index values do look to reach 95 Wednesday and
Thursday in NY with values from 95-100 Wednesday in spots. This
takes into account typical bias of our NBM guidance being too
high with afternoon dewpoints. Modeled 925 mb temperatures do
suggest highs get close to 90 for valley locations each day
Tuesday through Thursday. Some slight relief by Friday with the
next cold frontal passage and thunderstorm chances. Saturday
then would be slightly cooler and drier if current timing holds
up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
 Mainly VFR through the evening. Have a mention at most
locations for VFR showers from 20-00Z today/tonight as some
brief pop up showers should develop. Coverage and movement of
these is still somewhat uncertain. It can not be ruled out that
one or two of these develops into a thunderstorm as well. MVFR
to IFR marine layer should build into KAVP and KBGM overnight
and perhaps KRME. KELM looks far enough west to where fog is
the bigger concern.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon into Monday... Restrictions likely, mainly
Sunday afternoon and evening from thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Wednesday night... Mainly VFR conditions with
high pressure in control. A brief thunderstorm with restrictions
can not be ruled out Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday... Afternoon and evening restrictions likely with
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018-
     022>025-036-037-055-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MWG