973
FXUS61 KBGM 262351
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
751 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms this evening will evolve into more
showers and thunderstorms overnight into Sunday. Drier
conditions return for Monday but hot and humid conditions will
also return through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Updated as of 545 pm...
Watching thunderstorms begin to fire in western NY as the MCS
moves east into western NY state. Mesoanalysis shows ML CAPEs
around 1000 J/kg working eastward into central NY as low-level
moisture advection destabilizes the atmosphere. This
destabilization is occuring in the presence of deeper moisture
and lifting associated with the MCS moving east. Hi res models,
especially RRFS, HRRR are now showing convection firing this
evening in the Finger lakes region early this evening as KBUF
radar shows cells developing in western NY. Issued an SPS for
the next few hours for our Finger Lakes counties. Also will
message on social media and slack.

Hazardous weather concerns in this period will revolve around
outflow boundaries moving through the Twin Tiers this afternoon
followed by an upper wave moving into an increasingly moist and
unstable airmass over the region tonight. Stability parameters
are better over eastern sections of the CWA today therefore
these rogue thunderstorms forming on the outflow boundary that
propagated ahead of a dying MCS over NW PA this morning should
diminish with time late this afternoon.

Overnight...a modest LLJ forms ahead of the approaching wave as
a strong theta-e ridge builds over our NYPA region. PWAT values
also surge to around 2 inches as the entire column moistens.
WPC upgraded the NE portion of our area to a SLGHT risk of
excessive rain which fits well with the strongest signals of
theta-e advection, moisture convergence, and kinematics
associated with the shortwave. At this time, our confidence for
a broad scale Flood Watch is somewhat low as antecedent
conditions have recovered over the last 2-3 weeks in many areas
and locations outside of the slight risk could still see a high
performing thunderstorm or two tonight...therefore pinning down
a confident area for a watch isn`t quite there. Evening shift
can monitor for development and better confidence to do a short
fused watch as needed.

The upper wave now appears as though it will continue to deepen
more than earlier guidance which is likely to cause a slower
departure of shower and thunderstorm activity tomorrow...so
although a risk of excessive rainfall will linger in the
morning, we should still have slow improvement from NW to SE
across the area by late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
After a quick respite Sunday night...the focus then shifts back
to intense summertime weather conditions with building heat and
humidity through Tuesday. High pressure will allow for nearly
full solar insolation on Monday and Tuesday. Dewpoints are
expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s in some areas each
day. NBM guidance was sending values well into the 70s which we
trimmed back using a blend of the NBM 10 percentile guidance as
forecast soundings do show a significantly dry airmass aloft
which should become well mixed. Heat indices are marginal for
Advisory thresholds in most of the region...but there`s a low
to moderate confidence that urbanized valley areas will have
some dangerous heat conditions to contend with each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper pattern breaks down during the latter half of the week
with a broad trof becoming established over the Northeast.
Wednesday will be warm and humid again but with heights falling
it is not expected to be quite as critical as Monday or Tuesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms along a front later
Wednesday and Wednesday night will dispel the summer air to end
next week with cooler and drier conditions and highs in the 70s
with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low-level southeasterly flow and increasing moisture will
likely bring a stratus deck to all terminals with mainly MVFR
KRME, KSYR, KITH, KELM and IFR to KBGM and KAVP. This will occur
earliest at KAVP and KBGM around 05z-06z and latest KRME, KSYR,
KITH and KELM 08z-10z. Confidence is high for at least fuel
alternates at KBGM and KAVP during the overnight hours and
medium for IFR. Confidence is low for airport minimums at these
two terminals. For rest of terminals, KRME, KSYR, KITH and KELM
confidence low for fuel alternates. We expect showers and
thunderstorms to work across KRME and KSYR between 04z and 09z
with a potential for brief IFR conditions. Next batch of showers
and storms affects KITH KELM and KBGM between 12z-14z and 18z
with a chance for brief IFR conditions. KAVP likely will see
thunderstorms after 18z with a chance for IFR as well.
Confidence is medium for brief IFR but not long enough to
warrant tempo or prob30 down to IFR. We expect ceilings to
improve by late morning and afternoon to VFR outside storms.

Winds generally under 10 kts from SSE-SSW becoming WSW-W after
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Improving to NO SIG WX.
Monday...No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA/TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA/TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB/DJN
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJN