159
FXUS61 KBGM 211851
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
251 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The incoming rain for tonight into Tuesday morning continues to
shift south, and now is expected to just scrape the southern Wyoming
Valley region. Cloud cover was increased tonight. Minor adjustments
with PoPs for Friday into Saturday, but a lot of uncertainty and
spread remains for this time period.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Increasing clouds are expected tonight into Tuesday morning,
along with a few light rain showers for the Wyoming Valley.

2) Dry, partly sunny and seasonable weather is expected Tuesday
afternoon through at least Thursday.

3) There remains a good deal of uncertainty and spread in the
development and track of a coastal low Friday into the weekend. If
the low does track further west, some periods of rain will be
possible along with steady north winds up to 15 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

It`s a complex cloud cover forecast this evening, tonight and into
Tuesday. There are  strato-cumulus clouds developing in the lower
levels of the atmosphere streaming in from the northeast over the
area. These should start to wane toward sunset. At the same time mid
level clouds are trying to push in from the southwest, but are being
deflected by the high pressure to the north. The latest blend of
CAMs and other global guidance still suggests mostly cloudy to
overcast conditions over the area most of tonight. Toward daybreak
break early Tuesday morning, the clouds should clear across the
northern half to third of Central NY. Strato cumulus clouds then
likely redevelop as some modest daytime heating takes place across
Central NY. Meanwhile NE PA, and especially the Wyoming Valley area
will see thicker stratus clouds overnight and into Tuesday, along
with some periods of light rain at times. Rainfall amounts continue
to decrease, now expected 0.10 inches or lower only along the I-80
corridor in Luzerne County...elsewhere measurable rain is not
expected. Temperatures will be cool tonight, dropping into the 40s
for most locations (low 50s Wyoming Valley).

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There remains high confidence in dry, partly sunny and seasonably
mild weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday across the region. A
strong surface high remains anchored to our north and east over
southern Quebec and an upper level ridge moves over the area by
Wednesday (out ahead of a cut off 500mb low over the Central Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley). This setup keeps a northeasterly flow of dry and
cool air advecting into the forecast area. By later Thursday an
upper level low phases together with northern stream energy to
develop a 500mb low over Virginia, but again our area remains dry.
Temperatures will be in the 60s for highs each day, with lows in the
upper 30s to 40s each night. If skies clear enough overnight there
certainly could be patchy fog and even patchy frost, especially by
Wednesday night, but only moderate confidence on this occurring.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Model guidance continues to struggle with the complex weather
pattern setting up Friday into the weekend. As mentioned above some
upper level energy will dive south across New England Thursday and
merge with the 500mb low drifting east from the Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic. 12z deterministic guidance such as the GFS and ECMWF
have now shifted further south and east with the coastal low track.
Considering all the uncertainty with this system, taking an ensemble
approach was best to account for difference in the different deterministic
model guidance. As the low potentially wraps up and strengthens
along the northern Mid-Atlantic coast it could still send some
periods of rain back into our area from the east. The official
forecast maintains a slight chance to low end chance for showers
Friday into Saturday, mainly along and east of I-81. Trends in
the latest guidance will continue to be monitored closely in the
coming days as we attempt to resolve this storms track and
potential impacts here locally. At this time, the possible outcomes
range from mostly sunny and dry conditions Friday/Saturday...to
cooler and cloudy with periods of rain. North-northwest winds will
also be breezy and gusty, 8-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph
in this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some low ceilings remain at SYR and ITH, though guidance has
those clearing out within the next 1 to 2 hours. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Some showers
and low ceilings will be possible at AVP overnight. The low
ceilings are also expected to extend into ELM. At both sites, at
least MVFR restrictions are expected. Guidance is also hinting
at fog at ELM early Tuesday morning though confidence is low as
conditions may be too dry for fog to develop. If fog does
develop, then IFR/LIFR restrictions are possible. Winds are
somewhat variable this afternoon with speeds up to 10 kts. Winds
will settle out of the west on Tuesday with speeds around 5
kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night Through Friday...Mainly VFR; potential for patch
fog and IFR restrictions in early morning hours.

Friday Night through Saturday...Low chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BTL