479
FXUS61 KBGM 250116
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
816 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into the area tonight and
Monday, which will result in mainly dry conditions. A warm front
will move through the area Monday night, followed by a cold
front on Tuesday, which will bring light rain to the area. A
storm system will bring a chance of rain and snow to the area on
Thanksgiving and on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
645 PM Update...

Updated the wind speeds through the night to match trends this
evening. Lowered the speed and gusts in valleys while keeping
the ridge tops and higher elevations as forecast.

250 PM Update:

With a continuing west-northwest flow, a few light lake effect
rain and snow showers remain across parts of Central NY.
Otherwise, skies this afternoon are mostly cloudy with some
occasional breaks of sun. High pressure will move into the area
tonight, which will allow for any lingering lake effect showers
to end and skies to partially clear, although there still will
be some clouds around in Central NY. Lows are expected to be in
the lower 20s to lower 30s.

High pressure will remain in control Monday morning, but it will
begin to depart the area to the north as a warm front approaches
the area. After a partly sunny start to the day, clouds will
increase from west to east ahead of this warm front. Any
precipitation should hold off until Monday evening, so the
daytime hours Monday should remain dry.

The aforementioned warm front will push through the region
Monday night, which will bring light rain to the area. Across
parts of northern Oneida county, temperatures may be just barely
cold enough for some snow to mix in, or possibly even some
spotty freezing rain. Low temperatures will likely be reached in
the evening (lower 30s to lower 40s), before slowly rising
overnight with the warm air advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM Update...


A lingering low pressure system and front will bring rain
showers to the area Tuesday morning, before moving quickly
eastward.The cold front will spill in from the WNW Tuesday
afternoon but the precipitation is expected to be fully out of
the area as the cold air moves in. With the upper trough tilting
negatively and the mid level low sliding north, westerly flow
will fill in behind the cold front, bringing CAA and dropping
850mb temps down to -8C to -9C Tuesday evening and kicking off
lake effect showers. Scattered lake effect showers off Lake Erie
should stream across the Finger Lakes and western Southern
Tier, with Lake Ontario showers moving across The Mohawk Valley
and Oneida county. The Mohawk Valley and northern Finger Lakes
should see a rain/snow mix with higher elevations elsewhere
getting all snow. Westerly flow will remain into Wednesday
morning, with lake effect showers focused mostly along and north
of I-90 Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. A shift to
SW flow begins late Wednesday afternoon and evening pushing
most of the lake effect showers north of the CWA by the late
afternoon or evening hours.

The next low pressure system begins to spread some moisture into
the area from the Tennessee/Ohio Valley late Wednesday night
which could be in the form of light snow as overnight lows dip
down into the mid-20s to lower 30s.

Tuesday will see continued warm air advection with temperatures
in the upper 40s to low 50s. Behind the cold front, temps fall
into the upper 20s to low 30s Tuesday night and upper 30s to
mid-40s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
320 PM Update

An active pattern of wintry weather is expected to continue for
the Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend.

Still considerable model differences in the potential weather
system impacting the area Thursday into Friday. The 12z GFS
keeps the upper trough flat and positively tilted. This results
in a weaker, more suppressed low pressure system with just some
light precipitation skirting by over NE PA and Catskills. The
12z ECWMF deterministic model brings a stronger, negatively
tilted trough into the Ohio Valley, which causes surface
cyclogenesis over Tennessee and then tracks the low up across
the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England along the coast. This
would bring higher precipitation amounts, with snow changing to
a wintry mix/rain and then back to snow Thursday night into
Friday. Once again, the 12z CMC is in between the GFS and Euro
solution...being more amplified than the GFS but less than the
ECMWF deterministic. The various ensemble clusters are generally
in line with the deterministic model trends noted above.
Overall, too much uncertainty remains to pin down any details on
this system still. Used the NBM ensemble blend and collaborated
with neighboring WFO`s for the official forecast.

After this system departs there is higher confidence in much
colder weather moving into the region for the weekend and into
early next week as the incoming trough will pull much colder
air into the region from northern Canada, bringing the first
real winter temperatures to the region. Lake effect snow is also
likely in the favored locations down wind of Lake Ontario;
exact flow and wind directions are not certain yet. Lows in the
low 20s Friday night and lows in the teens Saturday night and
Sunday night are a real possibility. Highs may not reach the
freezing mark over the higher elevations Saturday, and for much
of the area by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect clouds will gradually diminish overnight, but
ceilings have lifted to VFR range. Guidance suggests MVFR
ceilings may try to redevelop for a couple of hours later
tonight at ITH or BGM, but probabilities appear quite low.

VFR conditions will prevail on Monday, with winds becoming light
and variable as they slowly shift from NW to SSE as high
pressure drifts east of the area.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible
in rain showers, with snow showers mixing in late Tuesday.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Lake effect snow and rain
showers may bring occasional restrictions to the Central NY
terminals.

Thursday through Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered
rain and snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC/MJM
LONG TERM...JTC/MJM
AVIATION...BJG/MPH