029
FXUS61 KBGM 191921
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday promoting
mainly dry and mild conditions. Spotty showers are possible for
western parts of the area Saturday afternoon and evening.
Largely dry conditions are expected Sunday through much of
Monday before the chance of showers returns Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Surface high pressure will be remaining over the area tonight
through Friday night leading to largely dry and quiet
conditions. Skies will be mostly clear tonight and with light
winds in place, we`ll have a good radiational cooling set up
with widespread areas of fog expected into Friday morning. Lows
tonight will be mainly in the 50s.

After the morning fog, Friday looks to be mostly sunny and warm
for much of the CWA. With the flow becoming more easterly east
of I-81, there can be an uptick in moisture leading to some
scattered afternoon clouds in the higher terrain of NE PA and
the southern Catskills. A brief shower in one or two spots
cannot be ruled out in this area. Highs Friday range from the
mid 70s to the lower 80s. Skies will gradually become partly
cloudy Friday night again with some areas of fog forming late.
Lows will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update:

In what has been a rather quiet/dry period of weather with
little to no change from one forecast cycle to another, there
actually were rather significant changes made to the forecast
for the short term period, mainly Saturday through Saturday
night.

A shortwave and associated surface frontal system is now
anticipated to move east-southeastward and impact the weather
for at least areas west of I-81, mainly from the Central
Southern Tier of NY southward into Northeast PA/North-Central
PA. This feature will have enough moisture and lift with it to
result in at least some scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms for those areas, mainly Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening. Some model guidance is hinting at a narrow
swath of heavier rainfall, but at this time this looks like it
would occur south of our area (more across Central PA), if at
all. With dry antecedent conditions, flooding is not expected to
be a concern. At this time, there is much less of a chance of
rain showers east of I-81, especially across the Catskills and
Mohawk Valley, but this could change as it gets closer.
Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected to continue
with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees and overnight lows
Saturday night mainly in the 50s.

High pressure and weak ridging will move back into the area for
Sunday, which will likely result in mostly sunny skies. Then
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are expected Sunday night
with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM Update:

A bit of a pattern change will occur next week with high
pressure moving out of the area and several shortwaves and weak
low pressure systems moving through. Timing of these shortwaves
is uncertain this far out, but scattered showers will be
possible each day, although no particular day looks to be a
washout at this time. In between these shortwaves, mainly dry
conditions will be present, but again timing of this occurring
is uncertain.

Temperature-wise, it will be noticeably cooler with temperatures
at, or even slightly below normal due to the increased cloud
cover and shower activity. Daytime highs each day are currently
expected to be in the 60s with overnight lows mainly in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will remain in place through this evening. With
mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, it will be a good
set up for widespread fog to form overnight through early
tomorrow morning and associated restrictions. Confidence is
highest at ELM with restrictions expected to lift by around 14Z.
Guidance also suggests fog is possible for ITH, BGM and RME,
but with the fog being a very shallow layer on model soundings,
there is lower confidence for these locations, especially ITH
and BGM.

After the morning fog lifts, it will be VFR through the rest of
the TAF with winds remaining light.

.Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog
possible at ELM during the early morning hours. There is a low
chance for showers and possible restrictions for ELM Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...Scattered showers and potential restrictions possible
as a frontal boundary approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK