527
FXUS61 KBGM 070730
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
330 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal boundary and low pressure system will
slowly lift northeast through Wednesday bringing rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. This will be followed by a cold
frontal passage Thursday that forms a low on the coast, with
another round of rain Thursday night and Friday. A few showers
may linger early Saturday, before high pressure arrives and dry
weather returns for the rest of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Given some breaks in the clouds coupled with lingering moisture
and light winds a mention of patchy fog was added to the
forecast for NEPA and the western Catskills. Any fog should
burn off by mid-morning.

Low pressure located north of New York will continue to track
northeast today. However, our region will still be under a trough of
low pressure with enough moisture around to generate additional
light showers. NEPA may be able to see more in the way of sunshine
being farther away from the surface low pressure though. With the
clouds and showers temperatures likely will stay in the 60`s for
daytime highs in most areas.

After the low pressure system departs to our northeast a weak cold
front should push through the region tonight and Thursday. Enough
lift looks to be present along the front to keep the possibility of
a few showers in the forecast. Some model guidance is also advecting
in some instability as well into NEPA and the western Catskills
Thursday afternoon. So did add some thunder to the forecast for
those locations. Additional rainfall does not look to be excessive
through Thursday but will continue to monitor trends as soils have
become saturated across the region. Highs should end up several
degrees cooler Thursday due to the cold frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM Update...

A strong cutoff low is expected to dig south from Canada along a
positively tilted trough stretching from southern Quebec into the
Ohio River Valley Thursday night into Friday morning. How far south
and west the cutoff low digs is still uncertain, as the Euro shows
it being influenced by another cutoff low over the southern
Mississippi Valley, pulling it more SW into E OH/W PA, while the GFS
shows much less influence from this southern cutoff low, keeping the
cutoff low centered over WNY by Friday morning. The position of the
low will determine where the surface low develops and thus, the
extent of rain over the area Thursday night into Friday night. The
GFS has a much quicker solution with the cutoff staying over NY and
a surface low starting to get going over the Mid-Atlantic but
doesn`t really deepen until its in New England. The Euro, with its
farther SW cutoff gets a surface low developed over the Mid-Atlantic
and brings a much larger and longer swath of rain to the region,
with showers sticking around into Saturday afternoon. Both solutions
show ample moisture pumped into the region from the positively
tilted trough ahead of the surface low development, allowing for
periods of moderate to heavy rain to develop, especially over
the Catskills into the Poconos, close to where most guidance has
the low tracking.

Currently, 1-2 inches is forecast east of I-81 from Thursday night
into Saturday morning, with 0.5 to 1 inch of rain west of I-81. With
the recent heavy rains in the area, soils will be very saturated
which will lead to flooding concerns from runoff and already full
rivers and streams. WPC has put most of the area(excluding counties
from Steuben NW to Onondaga) in a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. A Slight risk has been issued for the Catskills into NEPA
and the Poconos. These risks line up well with the forecast, which
leans more toward the Euro solution and where we are thinking the
low will develop and track.

Temperatures will be cool Thursday night through Friday night thanks
to a mostly northerly wind, clouds and rain. Lows in the upper 30s
to mid 40s are expected both nights, with highs on Friday in the 50s
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 AM Update...

A strong ridge will build into the region behind the departing
cutoff low on Sunday, bringing a very welcomed stretch of dry
and warm weather. Sunday will be the mid 60s to low 70s as we
will still be under NW flow influence as the ridge and surface
high will be west of the CWA. By Monday, the ridge axis slides
east of us, bringing SW flow and temps back into the mid to
upper 70s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally MVFR ceilings for all NY TAF sites. Some showers are
reducing visibilities to MVFR as well but those should increase
as the showers become lighter by sunrise. Ceilings are likely
to go to IFR for a few hours before sunrise at KITH,KBGM and
KRME. Odds are lower at KSYR and KELM. KAVP saw some clearing
earlier with some fog temporarily over the terminal. This fog or
additional stratus should build back in overnight with some
uncertainity which one will occur.

Ceilings only are showing slight lifting Wednesday with KAVP
having the best chance to improve to VFR for a time. Most other
locations should mainly be MVFR. While mainly light winds should
gradually shift from southwesterly to northwesterly throughout
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...Scattered showers with
Restrictions possible. Confidence moderate to high.

Friday...Rain showers likely with additional restrictions
possible. Confidence moderate.

Saturday...A chance for lingering rain showers, and occasional
restrictions. Could clear out and become VFR later in the day.
Confidence low.

Sunday...VFR expected under high pressure.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ009-015>018-
     022-023-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MWG