825
FXUS61 KBGM 201053
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
653 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A return to dry weather is expected today, along with cooler
temperatures. Warmer temperatures are then expected Monday
through the remainder of the week. Aside from scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Monday, much of this week will be dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
625 AM Update:

With 850mb temperatures around -3C and a northwest flow behind
the cold front, lake effect clouds are present across much of
Central NY, especially along and north of the NY Thruway
corridor. With this update, increased sky cover for the next few
hours to account for these latest satellite trends. The
expectation is for these clouds to gradually dissipate as the
morning progresses, but as we often see, it is possible these
clouds may linger longer than expected and sky cover for this
morning may have to be further increased with future updates
(again mainly along and north of the NY Thruway corridor).

In addition to lake effect clouds, there have been a few light lake
effect rain showers picked up by KTYX radar across Oneida
County, so also increased PoPs for that area for the next few
hours. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

340 AM Update:

Following the passage of yesterday`s cold front, high pressure
will be building in today, which will bring partly to mostly
sunny skies. With a somewhat tight pressure gradient still
remaining, it will remain breezy today (at least in the
morning/early afternoon) with occasional gusts up to 20-25 mph
in Central NY and 25-30 mph in Northeast PA. Min RH values will
be 30-40% across Central NY and 25-35% across Northeast PA, but
fire weather concerns are not expected after yesterday`s
rainfall. With a cooler airmass in place, temperatures will be
much lower than yesterday with highs in the lower 50s to near
60 degrees. Today will likely be the coolest day of the week,
before another warm-up occurs starting on Monday

As high pressure gradually slides off to the east tonight, a
warm front will start to approach from the southwest leading to
an increase in clouds, especially across Northeast PA and the
southern Finger Lakes region. Lows tonight will be in the lower
30s to near 40. Went a bit below the NBM for low temperatures
tonight with decent radiational cooling conditions present the
first half of the night.

As a warm front continues to approach the region, scattered
rain showers are expected on Monday, especially in Central NY.
The best chance for showers will be in the afternoon into the
evening. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, particularly
across the Finger Lakes Region, but severe thunderstorms are not
expected at this time. High temperatures are expected to be in
the 60s to near 70 degrees west of I-81 (especially across the
Finger Lakes Region), and in the mid 50s to mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front pushes through the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning with rain showers expected until about sunrise on
Tuesday. Looking like clouds will clear out behind the front by
late Tuesday morning or early afternoon, with ridging building
in. Plenty of sunshine will help push high temperatures in most
areas well into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be centered over the region Tuesday night
with mostly clear skies likely and cool temperatures. Most of
the model guidance now has high pressure remaining in place
until the end of the work week. Unsettled conditions are looking
more and more likely as we head into next weekend. There remains
quite a bit of uncertainty in timing with the system for Friday
and Saturday, with some ensemble members keeping it dry through
Friday and others having showers/storms develop by Friday
morning and persisting through the day. For now, NBM continues
to carry precipitation chance at around 50 percent, but this
will likely increase for either Friday or Saturday as models
hone in on the timing with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect clouds are resulting in occasional MVFR ceilings at
the Central NY terminals this morning. The clouds are expected
to break up by late morning, which will result in a return to
VFR conditions. KAVP is expected to remain VFR throughout the
entire TAF period.

Northwest winds with occasional gusts up to 20kts are expected
today, before winds become light and variable this evening.

Outlook...

Monday...Chance of showers and possible restrictions.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...MPK/MWG
LONG TERM...MPK/MWG
AVIATION...BJG