428
FXUS61 KBGM 101848
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
248 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring hot and dry conditions until mid week.
A cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end
of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure continues to bring sunny skies and very warm
temperatures. However, humidity levels are relatively low with
dewpoints only in the 50s to near 60. Clear and calm weather
persists tonight, with another strong diurnal temperature drop.
Overnight lows dip down into the mid 50s to lower 60s over the
region, with more patchy valley fog around early Monday morning.

Conditions on Monday will be quite similar to today, but
temperatures will climb by a couple degrees (highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s). However, with dewpoints remaining mainly in
the 50s, heat indices will not reach Heat Advisory criteria, and
in fact may be lower than the actual temperatures. Then another
mostly clear night is in store Monday night with lows in the
upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with more quiet/dry
weather and warm temperatures. High temperatures are expected to
be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. However, humidity values will
still be on the lower side, with dew point temperatures in the
lower to mid 60s.

High pressure will finally begin to break down and shift east
Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a potent, fast-moving cold
front swings through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast
during the middle of the week. Showers ahead of this front will
start to pop up across the region late Tue night, but showers
and thunderstorms will be most widespread across the area on
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
contain heavy downpours with high PWAT values (1.5 to 2"). At
this time, wind shear is looking weak, so not expecting severe
thunderstorms, but with instability of 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE
and the juicy environment, a few strong storms will be possible
with gusty winds as the main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Behind the front there is strong consensus
that the air mass will become more stable and slightly cooler
with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the lower 60s...with
only a slight chance of rain showers Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures rebound slightly on Friday back into the mid 80s
and should push even higher by next weekend, but with high
pressure overhead, quiet conditions will persist.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remaining overhead will keep clear skies and VFR
conditions in place through the TAF period. Winds are expected
to be light and variable through early tomorrow before becoming
south to southwesterly.

Outlook...
Monday afternoon through Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with
a cold front can lead to occasional restrictions.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...DK