981
WTNT45 KNHC 071437
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical
central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm
activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone.
This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the
Windward Islands.  An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds
between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity
is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry.  Convective
bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are
on the storm`s east side.

Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge.  A turn to the
west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge
of the ridge.  This should bring the core near or to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.  Around that
time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the
western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge.  In response to the
pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the
west-central Atlantic this weekend.  The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best
agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which
have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the
northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is
uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the
islands later this week.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to
strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds
appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding
moisture.  The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a
hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the
northern Leeward Islands.  After the system passes by the islands,
the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry
moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable
upper-level wind pattern.  For now, the official forecast shows no
change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that
portion of the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should
monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf,
and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that
area later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 11.5N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 12.3N  47.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 13.5N  51.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 14.9N  54.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 16.5N  57.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 18.1N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 19.8N  61.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 24.4N  63.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 29.4N  62.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi