922
WTNT45 KNHC 080234
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Jerry is
somewhat disorganized this evening. Satellite imagery has been
showing an exposed swirl of low-level clouds to the northwest and
west of the convective mass, with scatterometer data suggesting this
was the western end of an elongated surface circulation. The maximum
scatterometer winds were in the 40-45 kt range, so the initial
intensity remains 45 kt. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/20 kt.  Jerry
is currently on the south side of a strong low-level ridge, and
this features should steer the storm west-northwestward for the
next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed. This
motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. This part of the
forecast track is close to the various consensus models. However,
the global model forecasts lie to the right of the consensus models,
while the HAFS/HWRF models and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean are
to the left of them.  After the cyclone passes the Leeward Islands,
it is expected to turn northward and eventually northeastward due to
the development of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United
States and the western Atlantic.  Overall, the new forecast track
is nudged just a little to the left of the previous track through
96 h.

The latest satellite imagery and model analyses suggest that the
environment Jerry is in is not quite as conducive for strengthening
as thought earlier, with the cyclone likely to remain in moderate
westerly shear for the next two to three days. In addition, the
current structure favors a slower development rate. The latest
intensity guidance has responded to these developments by being
less bullish on developing the storm. While the new intensity
forecast calls for the same 85 kt peak intensity as the previous
forecast, it shows a slower rate of development, and the new
forecast lies above the intensity consensus models.

Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm
Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward
Islands.  Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in
areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 12.8N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 13.6N  51.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 14.9N  55.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 16.5N  58.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 18.1N  60.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 19.8N  62.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 22.1N  63.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 26.7N  63.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 31.7N  60.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven