469
WTNT45 KNHC 090847
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

Jerry still has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm.
Proxy-visible satellite images show the low-level center lies near
the northwestern edge of the convective cloud mass. Deep convection
is mostly confined to the eastern and southeastern portions of the
circulation. Based on the prior aircraft data and a recent T3.5/55
kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity is held at
55 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to
investigate Jerry this morning.

The storm is moving west-northwestward (290/17 kt), but is expected
to turn toward the northwest later today as Jerry moves around
the southwestern extent of a subtropical ridge. The center of Jerry
should pass just to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
later today and tonight. Based on the earlier aircraft fixes and the
latest track guidance, the updated NHC forecast brings Jerry
marginally closer to the northern Leeward Islands during this time.
However, the risk of sustained tropical-storm-force winds impacting
these islands remains low since the strongest winds are occurring
to the east of the center, with much weaker winds found on the west
side of the storm. By Friday night, Jerry should turn northward
within the flow between the central Atlantic subtropical ridge and
an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic. This motion is
forecast through the weekend, followed by a sharp turn toward the
east as the storm becomes caught in mid-latitude westerly flow. The
updated NHC forecast track still keeps Jerry well to the southeast
of Bermuda at 72-96 h, and no notable changes were made to the
latter half of the track forecast.

Only modest strengthening is forecast during the next 12-24 h given
the current sheared structure of Jerry. While the storm remains in a
moderate to strong shear environment, there are signs that the
northwesterly shear could lessen on Friday and Saturday, and the NHC
forecast shows Jerry becoming a hurricane during that time. Overall,
there remains a significant amount of spread and a lack of
consistency in the long-range intensity guidance for Jerry. While
the HAFS hurricane models now show significant strengthening to
major hurricane intensity, other guidance like the GFS and Google
DeepMind show little net intensity change during the next several
days. The NHC intensity forecast remains in between the extreme
solutions, showing gradual strengthening as Jerry moves northward
away from the Leeward Islands, followed by gradual weakening later
in the period as Jerry encounters stronger shear and cooler waters.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas
and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 15.7N  57.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 17.0N  59.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 18.8N  61.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 21.2N  62.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 23.8N  63.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 26.2N  62.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 28.4N  62.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 31.7N  60.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 31.8N  54.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart