476
WTNT45 KNHC 082032
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

Despite Jerry`s significantly sheared structure, the storm`s
maximum winds are solidly at 50 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft measured a maximum 5000 ft flight-level wind of 63
kt, which reduces to an intensity of 50 kt.  In addition, Jerry`s
center passed just south of NOAA buoy 41010, which measured a
1-minute sustained wind of 47 kt a few hours ago.  The buoy`s
pressure and wind data suggest that Jerry`s central pressure is down
to about 1000 mb.

Jerry is still moving quickly west-northwestward at 20 kt, but the
heading has turned slightly to 290 degrees.  There`s not much
change to the forecast track thinking compared to this morning.
Jerry should move around the southwestern and western periphery of
an eastern/central Atlantic ridge over the next few days, with the
storm turning northwestward by Thursday night and then northward by
Friday night.  The bulk of the track models agree on Jerry`s center
passing between 60-120 n mi northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands late Thursday.  The HMON and HAFS hurricane models bring
the center a bit closer than that, but at this time those are not
considered the most likely scenario.  Later in the weekend and
early next week, Jerry is forecast to turn north-northeastward and
then northeastward, and the bulk of the guidance also moves the
storm safely to the southeast of Bermuda in about 4 days.  As
always, it`s a good idea to continue monitoring future forecasts
since model scenarios can change, and NHC track forecasts at day 4
typically have an average error of 130 n mi.

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear appears likely to continue
for the next few days.  At the same time, Jerry`s winds are higher
than the satellite appearance would suggest, and warm waters and a
moist, unstable environment could still allow for gradual
strengthening.  The NHC intensity forecast is not too different
from this morning, bringing Jerry to hurricane strength by Friday
when there could be a slight decrease in shear magnitude.  That
said, there is quite a bit of spread in the intensity guidance, and
the NHC forecast is generally between the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into
Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 14.8N  54.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 15.9N  57.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 17.4N  59.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 19.4N  61.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 21.7N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 24.1N  62.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 26.4N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 30.6N  61.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 33.1N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg