Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
881
FONT15 KNHC 170841
PWSAT5
HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110
KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MAYAGUANA 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 6(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GRAND TURK 34 3 30(33) 9(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
GRAND TURK 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GRAND TURK 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PONCE PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AGUADILLA PR 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI