Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
286
FONT15 KNHC 162128
PWSAT5
HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22...RESENT
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140
KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 2(18) X(18)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 9(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PONCE PR 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AGUADILLA PR 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JUAN PR 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VIEQUES PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT JOHN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN