324
WTNT33 KNHC 092056
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

...SHEARED RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 91.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 91.7 West. Rafael is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm is
expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico
through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest
on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected through early next week. Rafael is forecast to
degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of
the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from
Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local
amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central
Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially
significant flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart