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HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)

CAMERON LA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI