244
WTNT21 KNHC 192040
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  71.1W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT.......  5NE   5SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  71.1W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  70.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N  72.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   5SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N  74.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   5SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.9N  74.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   5SE   0SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N  75.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.9N  75.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.3N  74.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N  72.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  71.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN