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FONT11 KNHC 192041
PWSAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

ANDROS         34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)

GREAT EXUMA    34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   7(16)  20(36)   2(38)   X(38)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAN SALVADOR   34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)  18(28)   7(35)   X(35)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34 12  11(23)   3(26)   2(28)  10(38)   4(42)   X(42)
MAYAGUANA      50  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

GRAND TURK     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     50 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
GRAND TURK     64 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   9( 9)  22(31)   6(37)   3(40)   X(40)   X(40)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MONTEGO BAY    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

KINGSTON       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

LES CAYES      34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PUERTO PLATA   34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN