584
ABNT20 KNHC 212309
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized this evening. However, earlier
satellite-derived surface wind data showed that the system does not
have a well-defined center.  Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or
so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a
short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
has moved into a drier environment and is currently producing
occasional showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive
for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly