374
ABNT20 KNHC 210524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a bit more concentrated
in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east
of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are
starting to show some signs of organization. However, recent
satellite-derived wind data depict that the system does not have a
well-defined center. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development over the next day or so while
the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and a
short-lived tropical depression could form. By the end of the week,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen