409
AXNT20 KNHC 111033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Mar 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A 996 mb low pressure system located
offshore the North Carolina coast will shift eastward through
tonight, dragging a cold front across the western Atlantic
waters. The front currently extends from the low through 31N73W
across the NW Bahamas to the north coast of Cuba along 80W.
Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed gale-force S-SW
within 60 nm east of the front, and north of 28N, and gale-force
westerly winds offshore of Florida north of 29N. As the front
shifts eastward through Wed, strong to gale-force SW winds are
expected within 120 nm E of the front and N of 28N, accompanied
by strong thunderstorms. Strong to near gale-force W to NW winds
and very rough seas to near 18 ft are expected behind the front
and N of 27N. The front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern
Cuba by Tue evening, from 31N59W to the Windward Passage by Wed
morning, and from 31N51W to the N coast of Hispaniola by Thu
morning. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as
the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing
portion of the front stalling across the coastal waters of Puerto
Rico early Fri before dissipating.

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and continues southwestward to
00N21W. The ITCZ extends from 00N21W to the coast of Brazil near
01.5S45W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted south of 05N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from south of 05N and between 20W
and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The frontal boundary that moved across the basin during the past
24 hours has moved into the NW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong
NW to N winds continue across the western Florida coastal waters
from Tampa Bay to the Florida Keys. Recent buoy observations
indicate that seas are still 7-9 ft from offshore of Tampa Bay to
the Yucatan Channel. A 1020 mb high pressure system is over the NW
Gulf, bringing dry continental air across the Gulf waters.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish across
the SE Gulf this morning as a cold front moves farther SE into the
NW Caribbean. High pressure over the NW Gulf will slide eastward
across the northern Gulf through Thu. Expect fresh to strong
southerly winds and building seas developing across most of the
basin Fri through Fri night, ahead of an approaching cold front.
The cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Sat, and weaken
from near SE Louisiana to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat
evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from west-central Cuba to the
north-central coast of Honduras. Scattered showers are occurring
within 90 nm behind the boundary, and also across eastern Cuba.
Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicated that fresh to
strong northerly winds were occurring behind the front. Seas
behind the front are 4-8 ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel.
Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure
system in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South
America result in fresh to strong easterly winds in the south-
central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and slight
to moderate seas are present in the north- central and eastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the front in the NW basin will move SE and
reach from east-central Cuba to central Honduras by Tue evening,
and from northern Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed
evening before dissipating. Expect fresh N winds and moderate seas
behind the front through late Tue morning. Otherwise, weak high
pressure N of the area will support moderate to fresh NE to E
trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela most of the week. Winds there will pulse to fresh to
strong speeds at night Thu into the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to
S winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean
Fri night through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the
western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning that has been issued for Atlantic waters offshore
the SE United States.

A cold front extends from a deepening low pressure off the coast
of North Carolina to west-central Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen near and ahead of the front north of 26N.
Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong
cyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, across the
southern half of the low pressure circulation, with gale-force
westerly winds offshore of northern Florida, and along and east of
the front N of 28N. Seas are quickly building within this area of
winds, with recent buoy observations showing seas of 12 to 16 ft
north of 27N. Farther east, a surface trough enters the basin
near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 22N60W. Moderate to
strong cyclonic winds are evident north of 24N and between 25N and
48W. Seas in the area described are 8-12 ft. The rest of the
basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports
moderate to fresh NE-E winds south of 20N and seas of 6-9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure located offshore the
North Carolina coast will shift eastward today, dragging a cold
front across the western Atlantic waters. Strong to gale-force SW
winds are expected through Wed morning within 120 nm E of the
front and N of 26N, accompanied by strong thunderstorms. Strong to
gale-force W to NW winds and very rough seas are expected behind
the front and N of 26N through Wed. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Tue evening, from 31N59W to the
Windward Passage by Wed morning, and from 31N51W to the N coast of
Hispaniola by Thu morning. The low will lift out to the northeast
by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area,
with a trailing portion of the front stalling across the coastal
waters of Puerto Rico early Fri before dissipating. Winds and seas
will diminish from west to east through late week as high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the
front.

$$
Stripling