630
AXNT20 KNHC 281017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall Southern Mexico and Bay of Campeche (Invest AL91):
Low pressure of 1010 mb centered inland over Mexico near 18N92W is
producing convection mainly over Mexico and northern Central
America, with scattered convection also over the Bay of Campeche.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also present over the eastern
Bay of Campeche and extend northward offshore the NW Yucatan
Peninsula. This broad low pressure will emerge off the SW Yucatan
Peninsula this morning into the Bay of Campeche. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this low and some tropical
development is possible this weekend as the system moves WNW. A
tropical depression may form before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico Monday. There is a medium chance of tropical
formation over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, heavy
rain is possible over southern and eastern Mexico along with
adjacent parts of the Gulf, along with frequent lightning and
locally gusty winds. There is also potential for flash flooding
and mudslides, particularly in hilly terrain. The heaviest
rainfall is forecast in the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis
Potosi and Tamaulipas. Please refer to the local Weather Services
in the region for more information on flooding and heavy rainfall
potential. For more information on possible tropical development
of this system, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at:
www.hurricanes.gov .

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave axis extends along 23W across the
Cabo Verde Islands from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in association with this
wave from 07N to 12N between 20W and 25W.

Another east Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 41W from 13N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N to 10N between 38W and 43W.

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is moving into the Lesser Antilles
along 60W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 55W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Senegalese coast near 19N16W
SW to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N24W to 08N38W and
from 08N43W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm N of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of 10N in
Caribbean waters offshore Colombia and eastern Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
low pressure (Invest AL91) that will bring heavy rain to portions
of the SW Gulf and adjacent portions of SW Mexico and has a
potential for tropical development this weekend.

Convection associated with a surface trough that extends offshore
the Florida Peninsulas has mostly dissipated overnight. A modest
surface ridge lingers across the northern Gulf, supporting gentle
SE winds across most of the basin, with seas of 3 ft or less. For
the south-central and SW Gulf, moderate to fresh winds are
increasing in association with the aforementioned low pressure,
and seas have build to 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the impacts of the low pressure,
Invest AL91, a surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf
waters through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for information on
convection in the Caribbean Sea. A tight pressure gradient exists
between a 1022 mb Bermuda high centered well NE of the area and
lower pressure over Central and South America. This is sustaining
strong to near- gale E trades and seas at 9 to 11 ft at the
south-central and SW basin. Also, fresh to locally strong E trades
with 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the north-central basin, Windward
Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to locally
fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the
central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse
to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,
with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras
will continue through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convection offshore Florida has diminished overnight, leaving the
only showers and thunderstorms in the basin associated with
tropical waves or the ITCZ. Details on this activity can be viewed
in the above Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections. The
basin continues to be dominated by low-level ridging, anchored by
a 1027 mb Azores high centered 32N30W and a weak 1022 Bermuda high
near 28N70W. This is leading to widespread light to gentle winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas N of 24N. To the south, moderate to fresh
trades and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region into late next week. Moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N.
Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons
into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Konarik