543
AXNT20 KNHC 132319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Aug 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Erin is centered near 16.3N 45.0W at 13/2100 UTC or
1040 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 15 kt. This
general motion is expected to continue into Thursday, with a
west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is
likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands
over the weekend. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas
to 4 meters/12 feet extend 90 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the
SE quadrant, and 45 nm in the NW quadrant of Erin. Convection
has become more concentrated near the center of Erin during the
past few hours. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
within 90 NM SW and 30 nm NE semicircles of center. Gradual
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Erin is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Locally heavy
rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force
winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of
Erin passes north of those islands. Swells generated by Erin
will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. Interests in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Erin
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 25W, south of 19N, moving westward at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N
to 13N between 25W and 28W.

A second tropical wave is along 60W moving westward at 10 to 15
kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

Another tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along
77W, extending from the eastern Cuba, across Jamaica to near the
Colombia/Panama border. Convection is limited near the wave.

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula (Invest AL98) is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance is forecast
to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula tonight
with no significant increase in organization. Some development
of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern
Gulf beginning on Thursday while it moves to the northwest at 10
to 15 mph. The system is expected to move inland over northeastern
Mexico by late Friday, which should diminish its chances of
development. This wave has a low chance of tropical development
in the next 48 hours and also in the next 7 days. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Western Sahara near 21.5N17W and continues southwestward to
12N45W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 12N45W to 10N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 35W and
42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for information on
a tropical wave currently located over the Yucatan peninsula.
This system has potential for tropical cyclone development in the
SW Gulf on Thu.

A surface trough remains over the northern Gulf and extends from
the western Florida Panhandle to near 26N96W. An area of showers,
with embedded thunderstorms, is just S of the trough axis to
about 23N over the western Gulf. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are affecting the northern Yucatan Peninsula and regional waters.
A ridge extends from the Atlantic across Florida into the eastern
Gulf. Under the influence of this system, mainly light to gentle
winds prevail and slight seas. The exception are gentle to
moderate E to SE winds in the Yucatan Channel behind the tropical
wave located over the Yucatan Peninsula, in the NE Gulf where
similar winds speeds are noted in association with the
aforementioned trough, and over the eastern Bay of Campeche due
to local effects.

For the forecast, the northern extension of a tropical wave is
over the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered moderate convection in
the area. This activity will follow the wave as it moves west
through the Bay of Campeche tonight. Some tropical development is
possible in the SW Gulf while the system moves WNW or NW, and
there is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.
Otherwise, gentle winds and slight seas are expected through the
basin as weak high pressure dominates.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is reaching the Lesser Antilles, and another
tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please, refer to
the Tropical Waves section for more information.

Satellite derived wind data provide observation of fresh to strong
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds of 30 kt offshore Colombia. These winds are the result of the
pressure gradient between high pressure N of area and the Colombian
low. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are associated with the strongest
winds. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail with
moderate seas. Convection has flared-up over the Greater Antilles
due to daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain slopes
lifting.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin will move to 16.3N 47.2W
Thu morning, 16.9N 50.1W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane
near 17.6N 53.0W Fri morning, 18.4N 55.9W Fri afternoon, 19.3N
58.8W Sat morning, and 20.2N 61.4W Sat afternoon. Erin will
change little in intensity as it moves to 22.2N 65.8W by Sun
afternoon. Elsewhere, a tropical wave along 89W will continue to
support showers and thunderstorms to the Yucatan Peninsula and
adjacent waters tonight. The thunderstorms may produce frequent
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, see the Special Features section above for information
on Tropical Storm Erin located in the central Atlantic.

A pair of surface troughs are analyzed across the N waters W of
55W. One of the trough extends from 31N60W to 29N70W to 31N74W.
Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms are near the
trough axis, affecting mainly the waters N of 29N between 55W and
65W. Due to the presence of these troughs, a weak pressure gradient
dominates the forecast area, with a 1018 mb high pressure located
near 27N72W. This weather pattern is leading to moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
region is under the influence of a ridge, with a 1023 mb high
pressure situated near 32N43W. This system combined with T.S.
Erin is producing an area of fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas N of Erin to about 25N between 33W and 46W. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are noted elsewhere E of 55W with the
exception of fresh to strong N winds between the Canary Islands.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin will move to 16.3N 47.2W
Thu morning, 16.9N 50.1W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane
near 17.6N 53.0W Fri morning, 18.4N 55.9W Fri afternoon, 19.3N
58.8W Sat morning, and 20.2N 61.4W Sat afternoon. Erin will
change little in intensity as it moves to 22.2N 65.8W by Sun
afternoon. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will result in
gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through late
week.

$$
GR