968
AXNT20 KNHC 021640
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 66W from 20N southward across Puerto Rico
to central Venezuela. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands from 17N to 22N between 62W and 67W. While isolated
moderate convection is depicted from 22N to 26N between 60W and
66W. Recent scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh E to SE
winds north of Puerto Rico in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean near 75.5W from 19.5N
southward, and moving west near 15 kt. No significant convection
is depicted at this time in associated with this wave, except for
inland Colombia.

A tropical wave is in the NW Caribbean near 85.5W from near 22N
southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica. The wave
axis is moving west at near 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection
is depicted from 18.5N to 20.5N between 84W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5W, then curves
southwestward across 10N25W to 06N43W. An ITCZ continues westward
from 06N43W to 08N57.5W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring near and south of the monsoon trough from 07N to 10N
between 26.5W and West Africa. Isolated moderate convection is
found along the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection south of 12N and west of 80W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1017 mb low pressure along a weak cold front has been
analyzed over the north- central Gulf, off the coast of
Louisiana. This front is supporting scattered moderate convection
north of 27N between 86W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is
also depicted over the NE Gulf and over the central Bay of
Campeche. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high over the NW Gulf is supporting
light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for most of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the
basin through the forecast period, supporting mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase across the northern Gulf
over the weekend into Mon as a weak low pressure develops in the
vicinity of SE Louisiana, along a stalling frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin, one generating
isolated moderate convection over the NW Caribbean and another
supporting scattered moderate convection over Puerto Rico and
adjacent waters. For more information about the tropical waves,
refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above. The resultant pressure
gradient between the 1024 mb Atlantic high pressure and the
Colombian Low continue to support fresh to strong winds over the
central and SW Caribbean with moderate to rough seas to 11 ft
within the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are
over the E basin while moderate or weaker winds and moderate to
slight seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombia low will continue to allow for fresh to
strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean
through Wed night. The strongest winds will occur off the coast of
Colombia, occasionally pulsing to near gale-force at night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the E Caribbean while
moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean.
Otherwise, a tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move across the eastern Caribbean
today, the central Caribbean tonight into Sun and across the
western part of the Sun night into Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The northern end of a tropical wave moving across Puerto Rico is
producing scattered moderate convection from north of Puerto Rico
to 26N. For more information regarding the tropical wave, refer to
the TROPICAL WAVE section above. Scattered moderate convection is
found north of 28N and west of 67W in association to a complex
area of low pressure north of the area. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-
Azores Highs and associated ridge covers the subtropical Atlantic
waters and support moderate or weaker winds along with slight to
moderate seas. The exception are the offshore waters N of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola where recent scatterometer data depicted
moderate to fresh winds due to the passage of a tropical wave.


For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern through the period, promoting a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. The pressure
gradient between a tropical wave, currently moving across the E
Caribbean, and the Atlantic high pressure supports an area of
moderate to fresh E to SE winds with moderate seas that is
currently moving westward across the waters north of Puerto Rico.
Winds and seas associated with the wave will diminish by tonight
as the high pressure weakens slightly.

$$
KRV