935
AXNT20 KNHC 152311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE
winds to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through
Sat night. Rough seas will prevail with these winds. Otherwise, strong
to near-gale trade winds, and rough seas, will prevail across the
central Caribbean into early next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is E of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along
21W and south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A 1014 mb
low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 10N. An area of
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 120
nm NW quadrant of the low center. The most recent scatterometer
data indicate the circulation of the low as well as and area of
fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas to the south
of the low center affecting the waters N of 05N between 16W and
21W. The convective activity associated with this tropical wave
have become a little better organized during the past 24 hours.
Some additional slow development is possible over the next couple
of days as the system moves generally west- northwestward. After
that, the system is expected to move into an environment that is
not conducive for additional development by the weekend.

Another tropical wave is along 28W, south of 18N, moving westward
at 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
southwestward to a 1014 mb low pressure near 10.5N21W to 08N36W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N36W to 06N55W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave along 21N, no significant
convection is evident.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1020 mb located over the central Gulf near 26N90W
dominates the basin producing gentle to moderate winds with the
exception of light winds over the NE Gulf, and moderate to fresh
Ne to E winds across the Straits of Florida. Seas are in general
3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft over the NE Gulf. A stationary front
over southern Texas is helping to induce numerous showers and
thunderstorms over eastern Texas and the far NW Gulf. Similar
convective activity is also occurring over the Yucatan Peninsula
and regional waters.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse offshore
the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds,
and slight to locally moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form during the
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Subsequent slow development
of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over
the northeastern Gulf and or near the southeastern coast of the United
States by early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section for
more details.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombia
low continues to support fresh to strong winds over the central
Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia. Altimeter
data provide observations of seas in the 8 to 10 ft range across
the area. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, particularly from 18N to
21N W of 82W. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas
are likely with this convective activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE
winds to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night
through Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds,
and rough seas, will prevail across the central Caribbean into
early next week. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong
each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure located N of area
near 35N52W to 30N61W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are related to the front. Moderate SW winds are S of the front
to about 28N. Farther E, a stationary from enter the forecast
region near 31N20W and continues SW to 25N26W and to near 24N40W.
Light to gentle winds follow the front. Mainly low clouds and a
few showers are likely associated with the frontal boundary. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of
high pressure. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are seen
N of 18N E of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Similar wind
speeds dominate the tropical Atlantic with moderate seas.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain
dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will
support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds
to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night
offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

$$
GR