804
AXNT20 KNHC 222341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu May 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 35W, to the south of 12N,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are observed from 00-02N
between 35W-39W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 15N17W
to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 04N35W, where it is
broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ resumes at 04N39W to the
coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 02-11N between 10-30W. More scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 00-07N
between 45-52W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends into the far SW Caribbean
reaching the Colombian Low. Scattered moderate convection is noted
over the far SW Caribbean S of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends across the Florida peninsula, then becoming
stationary over the Gulf waters from 28N83W to 30N94W. To the W,
a pair of surface troughs are analyzed along 94W and 97W and S of
28N. These features are supporting scattered showers across much
of the Gulf N of 26N. Moderate winds are noted near the troughs
and front, while light E to SE winds prevail elsewhere. Slight
seas prevail across the basin. Smoke from agricultural fires in
southeastern Mexico continues to maintain hazy sky conditions
across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf this morning and
afternoon.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight.
High pressure will develop across the northeast Gulf in the wake
of this front and dominate the basin through the weekend, before
Atlantic high pressure builds into the Gulf Sun night and Mon and
strengthens the ridge. Gentle to moderate winds will freshen in
the western Gulf starting Fri night. E winds will pulse fresh to
strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops
daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from agricultural fires
in southeastern Mexico will maintain hazy sky conditions across
the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridge over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E
winds in the central and SW Caribbean, generally S of 14N between
69-78W, where seas are rough. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
across the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean as well as the Gulf
of Honduras, where seas are moderate. Moderate or weaker trades
and seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere. Please see the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for details on convection in the basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging will shift NE through tonight.
High pressure across the NE Atlantic will gradually build westward
along 25N and into the Bahamas Fri through the weekend, which
will strengthen the ridge. This pattern will support fresh to
strong trade winds south of 15N through the upcoming weekend,
gradually expanding westward to Nicaragua. Winds will pulse to
fresh to strong across the Gulf of Honduras each evening and night
through the period. Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean and
tropical Atlantic will freshen Thu night into the weekend, with
large swell over the Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands
starting Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave
currently over the eastern Atlantic.

A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N74W to 27N80W.
A surface trough is analyzed from 30N75W to 24N81W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of these features and
W of 66W. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail E of the front to
60W. To the E, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N48W
to 24N59W. Moderate S winds prevail E of the front to 45W. High
pressure ridging prevails across the remainder of the area.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, convergent surface winds are aiding
in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms in two
areas: one from 16-25N between 36-53W, and the other off the
northern coasts of Guyana and Venezuela. Otherwise, a 1032 mb high
centered near the Azores extends a ridge across much of the
subtropical and tropical Atlantic away from the aforementioned
frontal boundaries. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas ongoing off the coast of Morocco as
well as through the Canary Islands, generally N of 20N and E of
20W. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across
much of the Atlantic S of 20N, as well as from 20-31N between
20-40W. The remainder of the Atlantic N of 20N and W of 40W away
from the frontal boundaries is seeing moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

A plume of Saharan Dust continues to be very evident over the E
Atlantic on satellite imagery. Lofted dust is observed across a
large region from 05-23N and E of 38W, with the highest dust
concentrations noted E of 25W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall and
dissipate across the northern Bahamas through early Fri. The
subtropical ridge will build westward along 26N-27N into the
region late Fri and Sat. The resultant pressure gradient south of
the ridge will support fresh winds south of 22N, mainly along the
northern coast of Hispaniola through early next week. A series of
weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward across the waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda early next week.

$$
ERA