651
AXNT20 KNHC 081046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Oct 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 13.3N 50.7W at 08/0900 UTC
or 775 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 20
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed remains 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are
peaking around 22 ft north and east of the center. Numerous
moderate to strong convection within 90 nm SE of the center, while
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
08N to 13N between 46.5W and 51W. The fast motion of Jerry and
moderate westerly vertical wind shear have caused the low level
center of Jerry to become exposed just to the NW of the strong
convection, and is preventing further intensification at this
time. A general W-NW motion is expected to continue with a
decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days, followed
by a turn toward the north-northwest and north Thu night through
Friday. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected
to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late
Thursday and Friday. Strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday
afternoon. On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across
the Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of
flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Swells
generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward and Windward
Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the Greater
Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML for more details.
For the latest Forecast/Advisory on Jerry, please visit website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ for more information.

Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico:
An upper-level low and its related surface trough will gradually
drift westward across the Bay of Campeche toward eastern Mexico
over the next few days. Aided by abundant tropical moisture
across the region, there is a high potential for heavy rain for
the coastal areas from southern Tamaulipas State southward to
southern Veracruz State, including the eastern parts of San Luis
Potosl, Hidalgo and Puebla States. The heaviest rainfalls are
expected near the Tamaulipas/San Luis Potosi border, and across
northern and central Veracruz State. With the ground in the
region already saturated from earlier rainfall, this will greatly
increase the chance for flash and urban flooding. Please stay up
to date with the latest forecast and possible flood statements
from your local weather agency.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 23N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm along the monsoon trough near the wave between 21W and 30W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 66W, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is active from 14N to 24N between 60W and 70W as the
wave interacts with an upper level low over the Mona Passage.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 77W, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
16N to 20N between 75W and 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, then curves
southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04.5N42W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 01N to 07.5N
between 27W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section on potential heavy
rain across eastern Mexico.

Widely scattered moderate convection dots the SE Gulf including
the Straits of Florida in association with an E to W trough across
the area. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are found over
most of the Gulf from 24N to 29N, with seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered
to numerous moderate isolated strong convection and fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds are found across the Bay of Campeche
and the southwest Gulf due to a surface trough across the area
interacting favorably with an upper low over Mexico to its west.
Seas are 4 to 7 ft in this area. Some slow development of this
system is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico
later today or early Thursday. Regardless of development, areas of
heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern
Mexico during the next day or so. Gentle to moderate breezes and
2 to 3 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
maintain a modest ridge southwestward across the northern Gulf
through Thu. A cold front will sink southward across the northern
Gulf Thu night through Sat and produce fresh to strong NE winds
across northeastern portions of the basin. A trough of low
pressure located along the western Yucatan Peninsula is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across
southwest portions of the Gulf. This system is expected to move
westward, and some slow development is possible before it moves
inland over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Regardless of development, showers and thunderstorms and strong
gusty winds are likely across the southwestern Gulf through Thu.
This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about newly formed
Tropical Storm Jerry in the central tropical Atlantic which
may affect the northern Leeward Islands toward the weekend.

A weak pressure gradient prevail across the Caribbean this
morning, south of a lingering frontal trough across the Atlantic
north of the basin along 24N-26N. Gentle to moderate mainly
easterly breezes prevail across the basin, except for moderate to
locally fresh winds off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of
Honduras. Fading NE swell from the Atlantic continues to bleed
through the Mona and Anegada Passages, supporting 4 to 5 ft
combined seas, and reaching the coast of central Venezuela and
northeast Colombia. Elsewhere, generally 2 to 4 ft seas are noted
across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will continues through early Thu.
Tropical Storm Jerry is near 12.8N 48.7W at 5 AM EDT, moving
west-northwest at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Jerry
is expected to gradually intensify, reaching near 14.2N 53.4W Wed
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 59.5W Thu
afternoon, reach near 21.1N 62.9W Fri afternoon, and near 23.6N
63.2W Fri night. Jerry is then expected to move northward and away
from the region. Fresh southerly winds will sweep across the
Caribbean E of 65W Thu night through early Sat as Jerry passes
just E of the Leeward Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning
on newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry.

A stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern
Atlantic across 31N40W to 24N63W, then continues as a shearline
across the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are active along the front E of 70W. 1028 mb high pressure is
centered over the NW Atlantic near 37N57W. The pressure gradient
between the associated ridge and the lingering front is producing
fresh E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas north of the front to 32N. An E
to W surface trough is also over the Bahamas supporting widely
scattered moderate convection across the area. South of the front,
an upper level low is across the Atlantic waters north of the
Mona Passage, and is interacting with the northern portion of a
Caribbean tropical wave. This has been producing scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection most of the night from the
northern Leeward Islands to the front between 60W and 70W.

Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are
noted over the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 15N and east of
30W. Saharan dust accompanies a tropical wave is noted in this
region. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in
northerly swell persist elsewhere, outside the main impact area
of Jerry.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE to E winds prevail north
of a stationary front extending from the central Atlantic near
26N55W to 24N63W then through the NW Bahamas, and will gradually
diminish through Thu as the front drifts northward and dissipates.
Tropical Storm Jerry is near 12.8N 48.7W at 5 AM EDT, moving
west-northwest at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Jerry
is expected to gradually intensify, reaching near 14.2N 53.4W Wed
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 59.5W Thu
afternoon, reach near 21.1N 62.9W Fri afternoon, near 23.6N 63.2W
Fri night, and near 28.3N 63.0W Sat night. Jerry will then begin
to gradually weaken as it moves NE and exits to the north of 31N
early Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop offshore of NE
Florida and Georgia Sat and move NE through the weekend.

$$
Stripling