957
AXNT20 KNHC 022141
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jan 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning East of 35W:
The tight pressure gradient between a complex low pressure system
north of Madeira and a 1024 mb high pressure over Libya results in
strong to gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Agadir High Seas
Marine Zone from 03/06z to 03/18z. Refer to the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over the African Continent. An
ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 08N15W through 05N26W to
04N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N
between 26W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1018 mb high centered near 24N86W continues to dominate the
basins weather. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 6 ft are
noted in the northern and far western Gulf. Light to gentle winds
with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas at
the northwestern Gulf are expected to expand eastward into the
northeastern Gulf tonight, as a warm front associated with a low
pressure system lifts northward. Briefly strong SW winds will be
possible on Sat. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Sat
afternoon and progress into the central Gulf through Sun,
supporting moderate to locally fresh N winds in the wake of the
front. High pressure will settle over the Gulf early next week,
leading to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with a surface trough extending from
offshore Colombia through the Windward Passage has diminished late
this afternoon. Fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present
in the southern and central basin, with gentle to moderate winds
and 3 to 6 ft seas in the NE and NW parts of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds occurring
west of 75W will diminish through this evening. Moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the central and
southeastern Caribbean into early Mon as a broad subtropical ridge
prevails to the north. Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the
Gulf of Venezuela through Sat evening. Looking ahead, fresh NE
winds may develop near the Greater Antilles through the Atlantic
passages early next week as high pressure builds to the north.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on a
Meteo- France Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N54W to 24N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted SE of this boundary from 21N to 28N
between 54W and 64W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Strong northwest winds behind a cold front in the far NE waters
are impact waters N of 28N and E of 28W, where very rough seas of
up to 18 ft are ongoing. A broader area of fresh winds and rough
seas extend S to 22N and W to 32W. W of the aforementioned
stationary front in the central Atlantic, fresh winds are S of
Bermuda, N of 28N between 60W and 75W, where rough seas are also
present. Finally, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft
are ongoing S 13N between 30W and the Windward Islands. Elsewhere,
winds and seas are moderate or less, as the basin is dominated by
a high pressure in the Gulf of America and another near 30N40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh W winds
are expected north of 29N through Sat morning as a low pressure
system emerges off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states and moves
eastward. Residual rough seas in NW swell occurring north of 29N
between 70W and 55W will subside through Sat morning. Fresh to
strong SW winds will develop over the northwest tropical Atlantic
on Sat ahead of a low pressure system moving through the
southeastern U.S. Localized winds near-gale force will be possible
offshore of northern Florida Sat night, and rough seas are
expected near and to the east of these winds. A cold front is
slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Sat night into
Sun and progress eastward through early next week, supporting
fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas ahead of the front, and
fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and rough seas in the wake
of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the
region early next week.

$$
Konarik