822
AXNT20 KNHC 230912
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms from 22.5N to 28N between 59W and 64W
have become a little better organized in association with a trough
of low pressure, AL90, located a few hundred nautical miles north
of the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds and seas to
around 8 ft are seen near this feature. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves
north- northwestward and then northward over the southwestern
Atlantic. There is a high chance of formation within the next 48
hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information regarding AL90 at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is moving across the Cabo
Verde Islands near 24W from 22N southward, moving west at around
10 kt. There is no significant convection related to this
feature.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 21N southward
through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 11N45W, moving west at around 15
to 20 kt. Convection is described in the Special Features section
above.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 20N to across
Puerto Rico to western Venezuela, moving west at around 15 to 20
kt. Some widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are
possible from near the U.S. Virgin Islands to S of the coast of
Puerto Rico to the Mona Passage.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from the Gulf of
Honduras near 18N southward through Honduras to far NW Nicaragua
into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at around 10 kt. No
deep convection is present over the waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W, then meanders southwestward through a 1011 mb low
pressure near the Cabo Verde Islands at 15.5N22.5W to another area
of low pressure (AL99) of 1010 mb at 11N45W to 09N48W. The ITCZ
continues westward from 09N48W to north of the border of Guyana
and Venezuela at 10N59W. Other than the convection described with
AL99 above, widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N
to 10.5N between 48.5W and 57W.

The east Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous moderate to
scattered strong thunderstorms offshore from northwestern
Colombia, as well as over inland portions of northern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A couple of surface troughs are creating widely scattered showers
and isolated strong thunderstorms across the central and eastern
Gulf, and the eastern Bay of Campeche. A stationary front drapes
across the coastal areas of the Gulf States. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds centered along 24.5N and seas of 1 to 3 ft are
present at eastern Bay of Campeche, south-central and east-
central.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the
south-central Gulf each afternoon through evening this weekend
into early next week as a trough develops over the Yucatan
Peninsula and moves westward at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the convection described offshore NW Colombia and with
a tropical wave near Puerto Rico both described above, no
significant convection is noted over the remainder of the basin.
Fresh to locally strong SE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
present at the Gulf of Honduras, central basin and the Windward
Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally
rough seas will prevail over the central Caribbean later today
through the next several days as central Atlantic high pressure
builds W-SW across the western Atlantic, in the wake of distant
extratropical cyclone Erin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will
pulse across the Gulf of Honduras at night. Moderate to fresh
trades are expected in the eastern Caribbean and across the
approach to the Windward Passage, increasing to fresh to strong
late in the weekend into early next week in the eastern Caribbean.
Mainly moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere.
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located more than one thousand nautical miles east of the
Windward Islands have become less organized over the past 24
hours, and the system is currently being affected by strong wind
shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system
traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a
slightly more favorable environment Sun and Mon as it approaches
the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during
that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the
Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for
information on Invest Area AL90.

Residual northerly swells from former Hurricane Erin is
maintaining 12 to 13 ft seas north of 30N between 55W and 70W.
Outside the influence from AL90, a 1020 mb high near 30N44W is
supporting gentle winds and seas at 5 to 10 ft north of 24N
between 35W and the Florida east coast. For the tropical Atlantic
from 10N to 21N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to
fresh NE to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident. Fresh
winds are noted offshore north of 30N and east of 14W. For the
rest of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast, Large northerly swell generated by extratropical
cyclone Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic waters
through the next few days. In the wake of Erin, central Atlantic
high pressure will build W-SW toward the central Bahamas and the
Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms have
become a little better organized in association with a trough of
low pressure, AL90, located a few hundred nautical miles north of
the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-
northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic.
This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation.
Regardless of formation, gale-force winds are expected to develop
across the eastern semicircle of this low beginning late tonight
into Sun morning, with building seas. A slow moving cold front may
move off the SE U.S. into the NW waters by the middle of next
week.

$$
Lewitsky