329
AXNT20 KNHC 051815
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near
33W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is noted near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 08N23W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 06N32W. It resumes from 05N35W to
03N51W. No significant convection is occurring along these
features.

The Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean. Numerous strong convection is ongoing across the far
SW Caribbean generally S of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms ongoing over portions of the eastern Gulf. A surface
trough is over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with a ridge of
high pressure across the northern Gulf. Recent scatterometer data
indicate moderate to locally fresh winds occurring S of 25N,
including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas of 2-5 ft are analyzed across the basin.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge
weakly into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build
modestly westward into the central Gulf by Mon. Moderate to fresh
E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a
trough develops daily and moves westward. Expect moderate to fresh
SE winds across the western and south-central Gulf through early
Mon between a trough over northern Mexico and Atlantic high
pressure.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms ongoing over the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan
Channel. All other convection in the Caribbean is associated with
the monsoon trough. High pressure is centered over the western
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and the Colombia low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
central to SW Caribbean, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range.
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are over the Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft
prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region centered W
of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic Fri
through the upcoming weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build
SW into the Bahamas and S Florida Sun through Mon. This pattern
will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas
across most of the basin through late Thu. Winds and seas will
then diminish on Fri and Sat, then increase Sat night into early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the discussion waters from 31N56W to
26N66W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm east
of the front. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 29N31W
to 21N32W. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the tropical and
subtropical waters. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas
prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 20N, as well as north of
20N and E of 30W. Moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front SE of Bermuda will
drift southward and dissipate through Fri. Weak high pressure NW
of the front will shift NE and into the central Atlantic Fri into
Sat, while the remnant trough lifts northward. Atlantic high
pressure will then build modestly into the Bahamas and S Florida
Sun through Mon. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse nightly
offshore of Hispaniola through Fri.

$$
Adams