917
AXNT20 KNHC 160421
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 12N and between 18W and 26W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N
to 21N and between 54W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues
to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 11N55W. Aside from
convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 28W and 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from Hernando Beach, Florida to Fort
Walton Beach, Florida. A pressure gradient prevails elsewhere
over the gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken over the next
couple of days as it slowly drifts southward and dissipates by
Thu. A strong ridge over the Eastern United States will support
fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and rough seas starting in the
NE Gulf late tonight and spreading over the rest of the northern
Gulf waters through Thu night. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will
move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through
Thu night, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE
winds. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri, allowing for
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to near gale E winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail
over the south central Caribbean. Gentle winds and slight seas are
over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure will continue to support fresh to
locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. These conditions will persist
through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to fresh
mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba
through Wed night. Winds will diminish across the basin by the end
of the week into the upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient
relaxes, with seas also slightly subsiding.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral,
Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas,
prevail N of the front. A surface trough extends from 30N52W to
26N51W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the
trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion
waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, prevail N
of 22N and W of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas
are found elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will shift
southward over the next couple of days and dissipate by Thu. A
tight pressure gradient between the building ridge over the
eastern United States and the front will result in fresh to
locally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the
Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will improve
later Thu into Fri. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the
SE Bahamas and Hispaniola will support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over much of the area over the next few
days as the system shifts northwestward.

$$
ERA