905
AXNT20 KNHC 011620
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Aug 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 56W,
south of 22N, and moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
tstorms are across the islands of the Lesser Antilles and adjacent
waters. Trades are fresh in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 70W,
south of 20N, and moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over SE Venezuela. The Upper Air Sounding
from Santo Domingo greatly aided in the wave analysis this
morning.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis near 81W,
south of 20N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and
tstorms are just offshore Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and
extends to 08N32W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to
13N east of 25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N32W to 08N52W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1022 mb high pressure centered in the E Gulf remains in force
across the basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft
seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the forecast period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase across the northern Gulf this weekend as a weak
low pressure develops in the vicinity of SE Louisiana, along a stalling
frontal boundary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section.

The passing tropical waves and the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure guide the weather conditions across the Caribbean. The
most recent satellite scatterometer pass indicates moderate to
fresh trades across the central Caribbean, with strong trades
noted in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.
Seas in the central Caribbean are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the eastern
and western Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombia low will continue to allow for fresh to
strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean
through Tue night. The strongest winds will occur off the coast of
Colombia, occasionally pulsing to near gale-force at night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the E Caribbean while
moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean. A
tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms,
and gusty winds, is currently moving through the tropical Atlantic
waters. This system will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight moving
into the eastern Caribbean on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section.

1027 mb high pressure centered near 29N46W dominates the basin,
providing for gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern through the period, supporting mostly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the region N of
25N. The northern portion of a tropical wave is forecast to bring
moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas to 8 ft north
of the Leeward Islands later today through Sat.

$$
Mahoney