244
AXNT20 KNHC 111722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Oct 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 25.8N 63.2W at 11/1500 UTC
or 400 nm SSE of Bermuda, moving N at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 24N
to 27N between 61W and 64W. Peak seas are to 23 ft. A turn toward
the northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by an eastward
motion on Monday. Weakening is forecast during the next few days,
and Jerry could degenerate into a trough of low pressure at any
time. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. A depiction of
rip current risk for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands can
be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more information.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Jerry
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 04N to 14N between 25W and 32W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N to 16N between 74W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to
08N58W. Outside of convection described in the tropical waves
section, scattered showers and tstorms are within 120 nm of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Moderate to fresh NE to N winds prevail across the Gulf waters,
diminishing to gentle speeds south of 20N. Seas are 5-7 ft north
of 20N, and 3-5 ft south of 20N. Roughest seas and strongest winds
are in the NE Gulf. These conditions are driven by a deepening
coastal low centered off the SE United States, and its developing
cold frontal boundary that extends across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through tonight
across the basin as the low pressure moves farther north, and
pulls a cold front across the far southeast Gulf and Straits of
Florida. Ridging will build across the Gulf by midweek, allowing
for gentle to moderate easterly winds..

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to
22N between 78W and 81W, including inland across central Cuba.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also north of 16N
between 63W and 67W, including across Puerto Rico and the US and
British Virgin Islands. Both of these areas of convection are
enhanced by upper level divergence. Light to gentle SE/ESE winds
prevail across the Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. However, in the
lee of Cuba, S winds are fresh to strong, with seas of 5-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean
through mid week, but a weak pressure pattern will maintain
gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm
Jerry and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

1003 mb gale force low pressure is centered near 31.0N 77.5W, off
the coast of the SE United States. A developing cold front extends
from the low pressure to near West Palm Beach, Florida. NW winds
to gale force are analyzed north of the front, with 8-12 ft seas.
A warm front extends from the low pressure eastward along 31N to
50W. Strong to near gale force S winds, also associated with TS
Jerry, are north of 21N between 59W and 65W. Seas exceed 8 ft
across the western Atlantic north of 20N and west of 55W, with
peak seas to 12 ft near the frontal boundaries. Seas are higher
near TS Jerry, please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

Elsewhere, weak 1018 mb low pressure is centered near 23N46W.
Scatterometer data indicates moderate or weaker winds across the
tropical Atlantic, and 4-7 ft seas are analyzed in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to
28.0N 62.8W this evening, 30.3N 62.0W Sun morning, then north of
the area to 32.0N 60.8W Sun evening. Jerry will become post-
tropical and continue to move generally eastward through Mon
before dissipating Tue morning. Meanwhile a 1003 mb low pressure
is centered near 31.0N77.5W, supporting gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas through the afternoon mainly north of 29N
and west of 77W. An associated cold front will extend from the
low center across south Florida into the SE Gulf of America. Winds
and seas will diminish through early Mon as the low pressure
moves north of the area.

$$
Mahoney