796
AXNT20 KNHC 222306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Feb 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to gale force off
the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will build to 12 ft with
these winds. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are
expected during the daytime hours.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to the equator at 22W. The
ITCZ continues from the equator at 22W to the equator at 48W.
Scattered moderate convection is from S of 04N and E of 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1022 mb low pressure is centered near 27N96W. A warm front
extends from the low pressure eastward to 26N90W. A cold front
extends from the low pressure south to 19N95W. Fresh to strong
cyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf west of 90W, with locally
near-gale force winds possible near the low pressure center. Seas
are 5-7 ft west of 90W, with 8-11 ft seas analyzed in most of the
W Gulf from 18N to 28N west of 95W. Elsewhere, east of 90W,
mainly moderate NE to E winds prevail with 3-5 ft seas. In the
Straits of Florida, trades are fresh to locally strong in the wake
of a surface trough, with 5-8 ft seas. The aforementioned surface
trough is along 85W from the western tip of Cuba north to 27N.

For the forecast, the low will track NE through early Sun night,
then quickly E to SE toward southern Florida on Mon with the cold
front trailing from the low as it moves across the basin. Fresh to
strong winds are expected around the low pressure while moderate
to fresh winds are expected behind the boundary. Weak high
pressure will settle over the central waters Tue through Wed night
in its wake with tranquil marine conditions across the basin.
Another cold front may sweep across the basin Thu and Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please,
refer to the Special Features section above for more details.

Outside of the gale warning area, the latest scatterometer data
indicates moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean,
including near the southern tip of Hispaniola and within the
Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft, increasing to 7-10 ft in the
GALE WARNING area. Fresh NE winds prevail in the lee of Cuba,
building seas in the NW Caribbean to 5-7 ft. Mainly moderate
trades prevail in the E Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse in the
lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through early
Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere in the western
Caribbean will diminish by early next week as a cold front slips
SE of the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach from western Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras late Mon night with fresh winds behind
it, then stalling and dissipating from eastern Cuba to eastern
Honduras by early Wed. Fresh to near gale-force winds offshore
northern Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Mainly
moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week, and
in the Tropical N Atlantic where moderate to locally rough seas
will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N48W southwestward to the
southern Bahamas, then the eastern tip of Cuba. Fresh to strong N
to NE winds, and seas 8 ft or greater follow the front north to
31N and west to 75W, including near the Bahamas. Gentle trades
are ahead of the frontal boundary. Seas in excess of 12 ft are
north of 27N between 47W and 62W. The remainder of the tropical
and subtropical Atlantic is dominated by 1029 mb high pressure
centered near Madeira. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in waters
east of 50W, with 8-11 ft seas in long period (12-14 sec) NW
swell. All other areas have moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening front will manage to
slip a bit more southward, before stalling and dissipating Sun.
Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will lead to fresh
to strong NE winds S of 25N and W of the front, including the
Straits of Florida through tonight. Rough to very rough seas
behind the front will subside across the waters W of 55W by late
Sun night. Broad low pressure from the Gulf of America will
approach South Florida Mon, and track NE to N 31N by late Tue
night dragging a trailing cold front across the western part of
the area. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail ahead of
the front and low Tue through Wed. By late Wed night, marine
conditions may improve under a broad and weak pressure pattern.
Yet another front may move offshore the SE United States Thu
night.

$$
ERA