000
AXNT20 KNHC 171030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat May 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 05N23W. An
ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 05N23W across 03N35W to
the east coast of Amapa State, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection
is evident near and south of monsoon trough from 03N to 07N
between 10W and 23W, and up to 190 nm along either side of the
ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1018 mb high at the
east-central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE to
SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted across the western and
central Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas exist at
the east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas
at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

Smoke from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico is creating
hazy conditions at the west-central and southwestern Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the
aforementioned surface ridge and relatively lower pressure in
Texas and eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh with
locally strong SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf
through Tue. Pulsing fresh to locally strong E winds are likely
each afternoon and evening through Tue night, north of the Yucatan
Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Hazy
conditions at the west- central and southwestern Gulf are going to
linger into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern end of an upper-level trough is causing scattered
showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the northeastern
basin, including waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the Caribbean Sea. Mostly fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft exist at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate with locally fresh E
to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the lee of Cuba,
near the Windward Passage, and across the central and eastern
basin. Gentle NE to ESE winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, as the upper-level trough drifts eastward,
locally gusty winds and rough seas will accompany showers and
thunderstorms near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sun
night. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras during late afternoons and nights through midweek
next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas over
the south-central basin will continue through this morning.
Similar conditions are expected in the lee of Cuba and near the
Windward Passage early this morning and tonight. Moderate to fresh
trades and rough seas will persist over the Atlantic waters near
and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun night. On Sun night,
increasing trades along with building seas are expected across the
eastern basin, which will then shift westward across the central
and southwestern basin through the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pronounced upper-level trough extends southwestward from
northeast of Bermuda across 31N63W to beyond the Dominican
Republic. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up north of 20N between 60W and 66W. An old shear line
curves southwestward from northwest of the Canary Islands near
31N20W trough 23N35W to 23N50W. Patchy showers are seen up to 50
nm along either side of this feature. Convergent trades are
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
French Guiana and Suriname. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The latest visible satellite imagery this morning reveals a plume
of Saharan dust across the tropical Atlantic with the western
edge reaching the Lesser Antilles. Climatologically, Saharan dust
tends to peak in June, then gradually subside after mid August.

A broad sub-tropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb
high near 31N43W to beyond the northwest Bahamas. These features
are supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE to SSW winds with 4 to
7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells, north of 26N between 35W and
60W, and north of 20N between 60W and the Florida coast/Bahamas.
For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 26N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles/60W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7
to 9 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds along with 4 to
6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front will exit the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and move eastward through
late Mon. As a result, expect moderate to locally fresh SW winds
with moderate seas north of 28N to shift eastward from off the
northeastern Florida coast across the western Atlantic through
Tue. Meanwhile, the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge will
support gentle winds south of 28N. In the long term, fresh to
locally strong southwesterly winds and building seas are expected
east of northeastern Florida and northeast of the Bahamas near
midweek next week, in response to another cold front moving off
the southeastern U.S. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to E
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage
each night into next week.

$$

Chan