659
AXNT20 KNHC 172300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jul 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic along 29W, from
06N to 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is from 06N to 12N between 25W and 32W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean along 71W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
over Hispaniola and E Cuba adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America. Its axis is near
84W south of 19N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted over the NW Caribbean and Yucatan
Channel as well as Costa Rica offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
west southwestward to 09N35W. The ITCZ begins near 09N36W and
continues to 07N58W. Numerous moderate convection is off the coast
of W Africa from 08N to 13N between 13W and 19W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 35W and 60W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An area of broad low pressure, AL93, is moving inland over
southeastern Louisiana. The system, which has low chances of
development, continues to generate heavy showers and isolated
tstms over the E Texas and Louisiana coastal and offshore waters.
Outside of locally higher winds and seas in the strong convection,
moderate S winds and slight to moderate seas are associated with
the outer circulation of this low, between the Florida Panhandle
and the coast of SE Louisina and N of 28N. Elsewhere except off
the Yucatan Peninsula, a relatively weak pressure gradient over
the basin is supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 ft
or less. Otherwise, a surface trough inland the Yucatan Peninsula
is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Peninsula
adjacent waters, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, Invest AL93 is expected to weaken as it moves
farther inland Louisiana on Friday. Heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the north-central Gulf through
Fri, with erratic gusty winds and rough seas possible near
convection. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds
will occur north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay
of Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week. Otherwise,
high pressure building over the northeastern Gulf this weekend
will support gentle to moderate winds and seas across the rest of
the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for information of the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Aside from the convection from the tropical waves, relatively dry
air is suppressing thunderstorms, and tradewind flow dominates.
Fresh to near gale-force easterly winds dominate the central and
portions of the SW basin. Moderate to fresh winds dominate
elsewhere in the basin, except in the Lee of Cuba, where gentle to
moderate east winds prevail. Seas generated by the strong winds
are 8 to 11 ft in the south-central and SW basin, with 5 to 7 ft
seas elsewhere, except for 3-4 ft in the Lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will occur in the
central Caribbean and Windward Passage tonight, with strong winds
expanding into the west-central basin through Fri as high pressure
strengthens in the central Atlantic. Periods of near-gale force
winds are likely in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of northern
Colombia nightly into this weekend. Rough seas will occur over
the central and southwestern Caribbean through this weekend, with
locally very rough seas expected near and west of the strongest
winds. Winds will diminish slightly on Sat and Sun, with seas
subsiding late Sun into next week. In the Gulf of Honduras,
pulsing fresh winds will occur each afternoon and evening through
Sat, with locally strong winds possible tonight. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over
the eastern basin into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for information of the
tropical wave in the eastern basin.

The subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of the
Bermuda and Azores Highs with the associated ridge being
intersected by a surface trough that extends from 28N41W to
22N48W. Scattered to isolated showers are observed across the
Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank while the remaining subtropical
waters are devoid of convection. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail
S of 24N between 55W and the Straits of Florida, except for
locally strong winds N of Hispaniola with 7 ft seas. Fresh to
strong NE winds also prevail between the NW coast of Africa and
the Canary Islands with rough seas to 9 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh E to
SE winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles to 27N
through Fri as a strong pressure gradient prevails between low
pressure over the south-central Caribbean and high pressure in the
central Atlantic. Strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and
through the Windward Passage into early Sat. Winds will diminish
slightly Sun into next week as high pressure weakens and drifts
westward over the western Atlantic. Farther north and west,
moderate SE winds will occur off the coast of Florida tonight,
west of 75W, as low pressure in the north-central Gulf moves
westward. Elsewhere, south of 20N, moderate to occasionally fresh
trade winds and moderate seas will prevail through this weekend.

$$
Ramos