069
AXNT20 KNHC 161042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Erin is centered near 19.8N 61.1W at 16/0900 UTC
or 150 nm NE of Anguilla, moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt
with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are around 34 ft near the center.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 15N to
22N between 57W and 66W. On the forecast track, the center of
Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.
Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Continued rapid strengthening is expected, and Erin is
forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane later today.

The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches,
with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or
mudslides, are possible. Swells generated by Erin will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through
the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough
ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

Please consult products from your local weather forecast office
for more details. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall
and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores/php for more information.

For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is E of the Cape Verde Islands extending from 08N
to 20N with axis near 21W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 09N to 19N between 14W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, extending from 04N to
17N with axis near 36W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 05N to 09N between 30W and
44W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis S of 20N
near 74W, moving west around 15 kt. Convection associated with
this wave is currently inland Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast
near Dakar, then curves westward across 10N30W to 14N46W. Farther
south, the ITCZ begins near 07N40W and continues to 10N52W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 17N between 42W and
50W, and from 07N to 11N between 47W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The Gulf is under the influence of a weak surface ridge anchored
by a 1019 mb high over SE Louisiana coastal waters. A weak
pressure gradient across the region due to the northwestward track
of Major Hurricane Erin, currently located NE of the Leeward
Islands, is providing moderate or weaker winds in the Gulf along
with slight seas.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the region will
provide gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the E half of the
Gulf, and E to SE winds of the same speeds W of 90W through Mon.
Seas during this period will fluctuate between slight to moderate.
Afterward, winds will become light to gentle basin-wide as a
result of the passage of Major Hurricane Erin across the Bahamas
offshore waters, which will lower the pressure gradient in the
region. Seas are forcast to be slight across the Gulf Mon through
Wed. Otherwise, the proximity of the cyclone may trigger scattered
heavy showers and tstms over the NE Gulf Sat night into Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for further information
on Major Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is near 19.8N 61.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving
west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Heavy
showers and scattered tstms associated with the rainbands of Erin
are already affecting the Leeward Islands and the NE Caribbean.
Isolated to scattered showers in spiral bands are starting to
reach the Virgin Islands. Low pressure of 1012 mb embedded in the
E extension of the monsoon trough is supporting scattered moderate
convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Otherwise, isolated
showers are ongoing in the lee side of Cuba and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are slight over the western half of the basin and
slight to moderate E of 72W.

For the forecast, Erin will move to 20.3N 63.3W this afternoon,
21.1N 65.6W Sun morning, 22.1N 67.5W Sun afternoon, 23.3N 68.8W
Mon morning, 24.6N 69.8W Mon afternoon, and 26.2N 70.5W Tue
morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near
29.9N 70.9W early Wed. Even though the center of major hurricane
Erin will pass NNE of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico, swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola through the weekend. These rough ocean conditions will
likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents, including
through the Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
over the eastern and north-central Caribben will diminish to
gentle to moderate speeds on Mon as Erin move farther away across
the central Bahamas offshore waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for further information
on Major Hurricane Erin.

Hurricane Erin is near 19.8N 61.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving
west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Aside
from Erin, the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under
the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high
near 31N36W and a 1021 mb high near 29N45W. The gradient of
pressure between the ridge, a pair of tropical waves S of 20N and
Erin to the SW is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds E of 50W with lighter winds nearby the high centers. Over
the SW N Atlantic waters, a weaker ridge anchored by a 1018 mb
high near 29N77W supports light to gentle winds N of 27N. Aside
from the rough to very rough seas associated with Erin over the
offshore waters from 15N to 27N between 54W and 66W, slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Erin will move to 20.3N 63.3W this afternoon,
21.1N 65.6W Sun morning, 22.1N 67.5W Sun afternoon, 23.3N 68.8W
Mon morning, 24.6N 69.8W Mon afternoon, and 26.2N 70.5W Tue
morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near
29.9N 70.9W early Wed. Swells generated by Erin will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through
the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough
ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

$$
Ramos